12-21-09

[Mr. IWS]

NEW GUYS! LURKERS!

Dont be afraid to post services if you come across them. Your posts will be appreciated for sure.

Just put them in the appropriate section (regular or premium)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-21-09

ASA

4* Wash

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-21-09

Sixth Sense

NY Giants -3 WASHINGTON 43.5

The Giants lost a shootout against Philly last week. Both teams averaged 7.1yppl but NY turned the ball over four times and allowed a punt to be returned for a touchdown. Washington dominated Oakland, especially after Gradkowski left the game and was replaced by Russell. They out rushed Oakland 3.7ypr to 2.7ypr, out passed them 6.3yps to 3.9yps and out gained them overall, 5.1yppl to 3.4yppl. They also sacked Oakland eight times. The Giants pass offense has been stellar, averaging 7.2yps against 6.2yps and 5.9yppl against 5.3yppl. The defense remains above average at 6.2yppl against 6.5yppl. Washington averages just 3.9ypr against 4.3ypr, 6.2yps against 6.4yps and 5.3yppl against 5.6yppl but their pass offense has improved in recent weeks. The defense remains strong at 4.1ypr against 4.3ypr, 5.6yps against 6.0yps and 4.9yppl against 5.3yppl. Numbers favor the Giants by 1.5 points and predict about 41 points. I don’t have any situations in this game although Washington does qualify in a couple of situations that are decent but don’t meet my criteria. Washington has struggled lately here against the Giants, losing by at least six points in each of the past three seasons. On the road this year, against better than average teams, the Giants have totaled the following margins: 2, -21, -23, -20. They defeated the two bad teams they faced by 24 and 11 points. I rank Washington somewhere in between but the Skins have been playing good ball as of late. I’ll lean towards Washington in this game. WASHINGTON 21 NY GIANTS 20

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-21-09

DOC SPORTS

4 Unit Play. #38 Take Washington +3 over New York

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-21-09

RAS..UC Santa Barb+16..Cal Poly+1.5..Boise ST-7

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-21-09

ROBERT FERRINGO

2.5-Unit Play. Take #743 Appalachian State (+14.5) over Dayton (8 p.m., Monday, Dec. 21)

1.5-Unit Play. Take #719 UC Santa Barbara (+15.5) over Arizona State (8:30 p.m., Mon., Dec. 21)

1-Unit Play. Take #727 Long Beach State (-1.5) over Loyola Marymount (11 p.m., Mon., Dec. 21)


1-Unit Play. Take #740 Utah State (-15) over Morehead State (10 p.m., Monday, Dec. 21)


0.5-Unit Play. Take #753 Boise State (-8.5) over Portland State (10 p.m., Monday, Dec. 21)

These are 5-point teasers:

1-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #746 Houston (-8.5) over Citadel (8 p.m.) AND Take #743 Appalachian State (+19.5) over Dayton (8 p.m.)


1-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #749 San Jose State (+11) over Northern Colorado (9:30 p.m.) AND Take #753 Boise State (-3.5) over Portland State (10 p.m.)


0.5-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #747 Fresno State (+10.5) over Montana (9 p.m.) AND Take #721 LaSalle (+14.5) over Oklahoma State (8:45 p.m.)


0.5-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #721 LaSalle (+14.5) over Oklahoma State (8:45 p.m.) AND Take #711 UTEP (+8) over Oklahoma (6:30 p.m.)


0.5-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #735 Cornell (+7) over St. John’s (9:20 p.m.) AND Take #743 Appalachian State (+19.5) over Dayton (8 p.m.)


0.5-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #747 Fresno State (+10.5) over Montana (9 p.m.) AND Take #740 Utah State (-10) over Morehead State (10 p.m.)


0.5-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #719 UC Santa Barbara (+20.5) over Arizona State (8:30 p.m.) AND Take #753 Boise State (-3.5) over Portland State (10 p.m.)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-21-09

SUPER SPORTS GROUP (SSG)

UTEP v. Oklahoma 6:30pm
PICK: OVER 148 Game (8*) Best Bet
NBA
Milwaukee v. Indiana 7pm
PICK: OVER 104 1H (7*)
PICK: Milwaukee +1 1H (4*)
Utah v. Orlando 7pm
PICK: Orlando -8 Game (9*) Best Bet of the day
Sacramento v. Chicago 8pm
PICK: Sacramento +3.5 Game (7*)
Cleveland v. Phoenix 9pm
PICK: Cleveland +2.5 Game (8*) - Just too good to give up with Cleveland getting the points

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-21-09

Savannah Sports

Todays Selections

NFL Football

2 (**) Washington +3

NCAA Bowl Games
Pass

Professional Plays
Eric Degarde

Todays Selections

NBA Basketball

2 (**) Phoenix -2

NCAA Basketball

Pass

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-21-09

DWAYNE BRYANT

UTEP vs. Oklahoma
Bet: UTEP +3

I think the oddsmakers set this line to entice public action based solely on the name recognition of the Oklahoma program. I don't think the Sooners should be favored, and I truly expect UTEP to win this game outright. Both sets of power ratings I use have UTEP as the better team. I looked in-depth at many stats for both teams and see UTEP is ranked 48th among 347 Division 1 teams in defensive efficiency, while Oklahoma ranks 201st. To make a long story short, UTEP owns edges in practically every statistical category with the exception of free-throw shooting. I also like UTEP's height advantage in this matchup (UTEP owns an effective height rating of +3.2, as compared to +0.8 for the Sooners), and they should control the boards in this one. I see a 5-point outright win for the Miners. Take the points with UTEP.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-21-09

INSIDER SPORTS REPORT
4* Utah/Orlando OVER 202.5
3* Lousiana-Lafayette -3.5
3* N.Y. Giants/Washington UNDER 43.5

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-21-09

Handicapper: John Ryan Sports
Sport: NFL Football
Game: New York Giants @ Washington Redskins - Monday December 21, 2009 8:35 pm
Pick: 3 units MONEYLINE: New York Giants -140

The Giants and the Cowboys have all but given the division championship to the Eagles. The Giants have an outside shot, especially given Dallas' December woes. This is a 3* graded play on the Giants. A Simulator shows an 73% probability that the Giants will the Giants will win this game by 4 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a solid and proven money making system that has gone 30-9 ATS since 2004. Play against home dogs or pick that are an average offensive team scoring 18 to 23 PPG facing a good offensive team scoring 23-27 PPG. 45% of these games covered the number by 7 or more points. Giants are an impressive 16-3 ATS (+12.7 Units) versus excellent punt coverage teams allowing <= 7.5 yards per return over the last 3 seasons; 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) versus excellent passing teams with a completion percentage of 64% or better in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. They are also a sound 20-6 ATS (+13.4 Units) in road games after allowing 30 points or more last game since 1992. Meanwhile the Redskins are just 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons.

OK, sounds like an old story for any team let alone an NFC East team, but the Giants MUST get the running game going in a dominating fashion. Washington is very vulnerable to a pounding running game and the matchups favor the Giants to have big success on the ground. Brandon Jacobs was having great success against the Eagles until that game turned into a shoot out. He has a 90% probability of getting 100 yards against the Redskins. Obviously, if he is pounding the run game between the tackles it will most assuredly open up play action pass plays. It will also allow for slant routes and especially the WR or flanker screen. Based on the matchups, I see the Giants victorious BIG.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-21-09

SPORTS WAGERS

WASHINGTON +1.21 over NY Giants

Depending on where you shop, you can likely find a couple of +3’s out there and you couldn’t be faulted for taking three points as oppose to taking the Skins straight up. Having said that, I’ll play the Skins straight up and here’s why. The Giants have two wins in its last eight games and both of them were in New York. Its last road win came on October 4, when they beat the Chiefs. Not only do they have two wins in its last eight but both wins were rather fortunate and if not for that good fortune (an OT win over Atlanta and a win over Dallas) they’d be on an eight-game losing streak. The Giants defense continues to get ripped apart and a close look reveals that the opposition has put up recent scores of 38, 24, 26, 31, 40 and 48 against them. That’s 259 points, or an average of 32.4 points per game over its last eight. The Redskins, too, have just two wins in its last eight and they’re 4-9 overall and will miss the playoffs again. However, they’ve been coming on for weeks and with just a tinge of good fortune they’d be on a five game winning streak. Five weeks ago Washington beat Denver 27-17 and walloped the resurgent Raiders last week but it’s what in between those two wins that’s most interesting. The Redskins played in succession, Dallas, Philly and New Orleans and were in a strong position to win them all, as they had a lead with less than two minutes to go in all of them. Of course an argument could be made that bad teams find a way to lose and that’s true to some extent. However, those are signs of a team coming on and playing some great football. The Skins are at home, its defense is playing great and they’re sure not talking a step up in class when facing this current grease-fire. Play: Washington +1.21 (Risking 2 units).


Colorado +1.23 over MINNESOTA

The Av’s are expected to fall but they haven’t yet and there are no signs that they will. They just keep playing well and winning a high percentage of its games. In fact, not only do they have a solid record but the Av’s have played the second most difficult schedule in the league according to the Sagerin NHL ratings. Against teams that are 16th or worse in the standing, the Av’s own a tremendous record and the Wild qualify. The Av’s continue to allow its opponents to a very limited amount of shots on net and when they do allow shots, Craig Anderson has answered with a great season thus far. Colorado has won three of four. They may also be a little extra juiced up here because the Wild has been its biggest nemesis, having lost five straight to them and seven of its last eight and that includes all four games this season. The Wild are playing decent hockey too but that fire that ruined its equipment seemed to have a rather negative effect on them, as players need new equipment, which means breaking it in and that’s a psychological disadvantage. Anyway, the Av’s really want this one, as they’re sick of losing to this host and they’ll be extra focused to get this proverbial monkey off its back. Play: Colorado +1.23 (Risking 2 units).


EDMONTON -½ +1.15 over St. Louis

The Blue Notes have problems and it starts with its offense, which ranks dead last in the NHL in goals scored. They played in Vancouver last night and escaped with a solid 3-1 win but the absolutely did not outplay the Canucks. The Blues are tough to beat when they get a lead but when they fall behind its chances of coming back is slim. This is also the third game in four days for the Blues. Meanwhile, the Oilers have dropped three in a row, all at home, after that unlikely five-game road-winning streak. They need this one badly and they should be completely fired up and ready to go. The Oilers had a 2-0 third period lead on Washington on Saturday before allowing four goals and while a loss is a loss, you can just see that they’re on the verge of a big game. The Oilers are so quick and so talented and they catch the Blue Notes at precisely the right time. Play: Edmonton -½ +1.15 (Risking 2 units).


ATLANTA -½ +1.22 over Montreal

What’s so interesting about this game is the total, which is posted at 6, meaning the books expect some goals. Montreal games rarely feature a total of 6 and in fact, they’re usually 5 or 5½ with big juice on the under. With that being the case, we all know that the Habs are tooth and nails to score a single goal, meaning the goals have to come from somewhere. We also know that Jaroslav Halak is net and he’s more likely to give some up than Carey Price. So, in reading “between the lines” it suggests that there will be some goals scored in this one and you simply have to trust the Thrashers to account for most of them. Besides that, the Canadiens have one win in its last six and that came Saturday night against the Islanders in which they were outshot 40-28. The Habs continue to get outplayed badly on a nightly basis and that is very unlikely to change here. Play: Atlanta -½ +1.22 (Risking 2 units).


Montana St. –1.02 OVER Cal State Poly

Bettors will be scared by Montana State’s winless road record but in this game talent alone should triumph. Montana State returned four starters from a team that was two points away from a tournament appearance and have played decent basketball thus far. Montana State won’t blow anyone away offensively but they do shoot 38% from three and 49% from two. Cal Poly started the year 0-5 with some really bad losses to San Francisco and Little Rock but won three in a row in December to pull to 3-6 on the year. Cal Poly is a brutal defensive team that allows opponents to shoot 40.5% from three and 53.2% from two. Those statistics against pit them near the bottom of all Division I teams and it’s a major red flag for their backers. Montana State needs to beat teams like this and the road excuse needs to stop. They are simply the better team. Play: #751 Montana St. –1.02 (Risking 2.04 units to win 2).


MONTANA/Fresno St. under 124½

The most important statistic to look at when making any total play in basketball is pace. Pace refers to how many possessions a team uses in a 40 minute game and to make bets without knowing that stat is simply foolish. Montana plays at the 13th slowest pace in all of College Basketball while Fresno plays at the national average. This means that both these teams will have to shoot remarkably well for this game to have any chance at the over and the chances of that aren’t great. Montana and Fresno both play great defense that holds opponents to 91.5 points and 92.5 points per 100 possessions, numbers that place them in the top 64. If you want even simpler statistics, Fresno State’s opponents shoot 39.7% against them while Montana’s shoot 42.5%. I can’t find a single reason recommending an over play and the only explanation is that the public is unaware of pace factor. I don’t even look at points per game and neither should you, as it’s akin to equating wins to a pitchers performance and we all know that those days are behind us. This is one of the more beatable totals posted thus far and you should definitely take advantage. Play: #748 Montana/Fresno St. under 124½ (Risking 2.16 units to win 2).


La Salle +9½ over OKLAHOMA ST.

When you think Oklahoma St vs La Salle most also think blowout. The point is when you wager on a well-known school vs a much less recognizable one you’re almost always going to pay a premium for that wager and that’s certainly the case here. The Cowboys reside in the Big-12, one of, if not the toughest conference in the land. The Explorers play in the Atlantic-10, which is a decent conference but nowhere near the quality of the Big-12. The problem with the Cowboys is its brutal schedule thus far that has seen them play cupcake after cupcake and what that means is they’re not even close to being battle-tested yet. The Cowboys are 9-1 but its wins came in order against Seattle, Southern University, North Texas, Prairie View A&M, Bradley, Utah, Texas-San Antonio, Arkansas-Pine Bluff and Stanford. The two most recognizable programs on that schedule are Stanford and Utah, both which are near the bottom of its respective conferences, are a combined 10-11 and the Utes are in last place. Incidentally, Oklahoma St. beat Stanford by a single point. The Cowboys did play the 9-1 Tulsa Golden Hurricane and were smoked by 19 points in its only loss of the year. So, while its 9-1 record looks great on paper, the fact is the Cowboys numbers are completely skewed because of its lousy schedule and now they’ll face a decent and battle tested La Salle squad. The Explorers come in 7-3 but have played two, top five teams in #1 Kansas and #4 Villanova. It’s other loss came against a very decent South Carolina team. They lost by double-digits to all three of those teams but those are good losses that help prepare a team for future games against quality opponents and the Cowboys really don’t qualify as such. Oklahoma St. virtually has no bench and just one senior to go along with a slew of freshman. Meanwhile, four of the Explorers top five scorers are seniors. They have as many as six players that are capable of putting up double-digits. They have experience and they absolutely will not be intimidated in this setting. The Cowboys have shown nothing to warrant this price and may even lose this one outright. Play: #721 La Salle +9½ (Risking 2.16 units to win 2).

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-21-09

NSA

20 Redskins
20 Drexel
10 Giants over
10 Yale under
10 Kings
10 Suns

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-21-09

RON RAYMOND’S

5* NBA BEST BET WINNER (68% WINNER)

Pick # 1 Milwaukee Bucks /Indiana Pacers Over 198.5 -110


5* NHL BEST BET WINNER (90% WINNER)

Pick # 1 Edmonton Oilers (-145)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-21-09

Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons

NEW YORK GIANTS -3

For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this game is on the Giants:

New York's latest defeat cost them any realistic chance of winning the NFC East, but they could still be in good position to reach the playoffs if they take care of business against seemingly inferior competition.

A dominating defense was what led the Giants on their Super Bowl run two seasons ago, and the unit was again one of the best in the league last year as New York went 12-4 to earn the top seed in the NFC; although its stumbled lately, I look for it to step up on the national stage.

It's true that New York is just 1-7 ATS its last eight overall, but dating back to last season its an awesome 17-5 ATS its last 22 on the road. It's also a dominant 5-1-1 ATS its last seven when playing Washington.

On the other side of the field: Washington has played better lately, but will be facing a very determined and focused team and will have its hands full if the Giants’ offense plays like it did Sunday night, when it racked up a season-high 512 total yards. Manning threw for a career-high 391 yards and three touchdowns, including strikes of more than 60 yards

Washington has been better lately, but always struggles at home; the Redskins are a poor 3-9 ATS their last 12 in front of the hometown crowd.

Bottom line: The Redskins have plenty off field issues to contend with right now and will face a team that is desperate to finish the season strong and which has had great success over them; look for NEW YORK to improve to a perfect 3-0 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record and for Washington to fall to 4-7 ATS vs. conference opponents.

*10* GIANTS.