12-19-09

[Mr. IWS]

NEW GUYS! LURKERS!

Dont be afraid to post services if you come across them. Your posts will be appreciated for sure.

Just put them in the appropriate section (regular or premium)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-19-09

Saturday Service Plays
Sixth Sense

(No best bet for Saturday)

NEW ORLEANS -7 Dallas 54


Cowboys moved the ball last week against SD. They averaged 4.0ypr to just 2.4ypr for SD, were out passed 8.1yps to 7.7yps but still had very good passing numbers. Overall, they out gained SD 6.0yppl to 5.3yppl. The problem is they couldn’t finish drives, either ending on downs or missing field goals. The Saints were actually out played in Atlanta but managed to win the game. They were out rushed 4.2ypr to 3.7ypr, out passed 8.7yps to 7.2yps and out gained overall 7.0yppl to 5.8yppl. For the season, Dallas averages 4.9ypr against 4.2ypr, 7.2yps against 6.2yps and 6.3yppl against 5.3yppl. The defense is average at 5.3yppl against 5.3yppl. The Cowboys move the ball on offense but their yards per point stand at 17.1 for the year and therein lies the problem. They can’t turn yards into points. Nothing is wrong with the Saints offense as they average 8.3yps against 6.3yps and 6.5yppl against 5.4yppl. That actually makes these two offenses almost the same but NO is averaging 11.9 yards per point, which is a huge difference compared to Dallas. The Saints allow 5.4yppl against 5.2yppl, meaning the Dallas defense is better than NO. Numbers favor NO by 7.5 points and predict about 53 points. NO qualifies in a scheduling situation, which is 50-15-1 but Dallas qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 469-304-21. Saints have won every home game by at least eight points and scored at least 24 points in every game and at least 30 points in all but one home game. Cowboys have struggled on the road against good competition this year. They did defeat Philadelphia 20-16 but they have lost by seven at Denver and NY and by 10 at GB, where they scored in the last minute of the game or they would have lost by 17. Saints have totaled 75, 62 and 55 points at home when facing good offenses this year. I’ll call for a seven point game and let the line decide which way I lean. NEW ORLEANS 31 DALLAS 24

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-19-09

Teddy Covers
Teddy closed out the college football regular season with a perfect 3-0 weekend. He closed out bowl season last year with strong winners on Florida and Tulsa, covering the spread by 37 points in the two games combined. 2009 Bowl profits start on Saturday -- don't miss out!

Wyoming +11

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-19-09

Doc’s Sports

#8 Take Rutgers -2 ½ over Central Florida (Saturday 8 pm ESPN)
Saturday is the opening day of the bowl season and we will attack the St. Petersburg Bowl, siding with the BCS Conference team in Rutgers. The Scarlet Knights had one of the most disappointing seasons in 2009, as they were predicted by many to win the Big East Conference. UCF has faced six bowl teams this season and went just 2-4 straight-up in those games. The UCF Knights are 98th in offense, averaging just 26 points per game and 348 total yards. Rutgers does not rate much higher in offense but has played stronger competition in the Big East. Rutgers needs this win to salvage their season and expect them to get it behind Joe Martinek and company. We will side with the Knights from New Jersey in this battle. Doc’s Sports

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-19-09

Wunderdog

Picks and Analysis

Game: Wyoming vs. Fresno State (Saturday 12/19 4:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: Wyoming +11 (-110)

New Mexico Bowl - University Stadium - Albuquerque, NM. Fresno State will be making their 10th Bowl appearance in the last 11 years, and their second straight trip to the New Mexico Bowl. They lost to Colorado State last year. It should also be noted that in the nine previous Bowls, the Bulldogs winning margin exceeded this pointspread just once, and that was a 12-point win. The Cowboys last appeared in a Bowl in 2004. They were posted as a 12.5 point underdog to UCLA and won the game outright. This will be just their second Bowl appearance since 1993. Wyoming was just 6-6 on the season, but they were 7-2 ATS in their final nine games and should be excited to be here. The public likes a team that can score and that can result in juiced lines. Fresno State certainly has shown that ability as they averaged 34.3 points per game this season. The problem for the Bulldogs is that they gave up nearly 28 ppg. They allowed 132 points in their last three! The Bulldogs won four of their last
five to get here, but did not have a winning margin greater than 10 points in the process. Big underdogs in Bowls have a long history of getting the money as they usually turn out to be the more motivated team. The Bulldogs carry just an 8-22 ATS mark in their last 30 as a favorite while Wyoming has built off an ATS win to go 27-13 ATS in their next game. Fresno is just 2-11 ATS the past two seasons when coming off a road game, and 2-11 ATS in their last 13 after allowing 50+ in their last game. Under Pat Hill, this team is 39-53 ATS as a favorite including 15-25 ATS as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points. I think the points are too generous here.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-19-09

MATT FARGO
Matchup: Wyoming at Fresno St
Time: 4:30 PM EDT (Sat)
Play: Fresno St (-11 -110)

Posted on: December 17, 2009 @ 11:40:12 AM EST
**8** NEW MEXICO BOWL WINNER *85% ANGLES* Props go out to Wyoming for making a bowl game after being predicted, myself included, to finish either last or second to last in the Mountain West Conference. However the Cowboys are the perfect example why there are too many bowl games and why too many teams that are playing in bowls should not be. Wyoming finished the season 6-6 but one of those wins came against FCS Weber St. so even then the record is skewed. Another win came against New Mexico who finished with only one win on the season. Take away that victory, which was the largest of the season, and the other five wins (including Weber St.), came by a total of 16 points. Not average per game but total overall. On the season Wyoming was outgained by an average of 96.4 ypg and it finished the year going 0-5 against teams that are currently in bowl games. The Cowboys lost those games by a total score of 170-30. We have seen some bad bowl teams in recent years due to the expansion of the bowl circuit but this could be one of the all time worst. I made the mistake of backing Fresno St. last season in the New Mexico Bowl as it was favored over what I thought was a bad Colorado St. team but it ended up losing a very entertaining game by five points, 40-35. The Bulldogs are back again in Albuquerque facing another team from the Mountain West Conference and that loss last season to the Rams will only help it this year. Fresno St. was not a motivated team last year as its season was killed by three early losses by three points each and that completely took the life out of them. They ended up losing to Nevada and Boise St. by big margins and they simply were not happy to be where they were in the postseason and that lack of motivation negated the talent advantage that it has over Colorado St. This year, expectations were lower so coming into the bowl game with an 8-4 record is something they are happy with and they will want to finish out strong. After starting 1-3, the Bulldogs went 7-1 in their final eight games and even though the competition was suspect, the confidence level makes up for that. Two losses on the road came against Wisconsin and Cincinnati and those were by a total of 11 points. Those were good losses indeed. Wyoming is just 2-10 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record over the last three seasons and is it 3-12 ATS in its last 15 games against teams that complete 58 percent or more of their passes. Fresno St. has the big rushing advantage and it is 6-0 ATS in its last six games after gaining more than 200 yards in its previous game. As opposed to last season, Fresno St. gets it done in the postseason. 8* Fresno St. Bulldogs

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-19-09

DAVE COKIN
Matchup: Central Florida at Rutgers
Time: 8:00 PM EDT (Sat)
Play: Central Florida (+3 -110)

Posted on: December 17, 2009 @ 11:40:12 AM EST
The game between Rutgers and Central Florida is one of those classic early bowl hookups where the better team is favored, but the weaker squad has a great chance to win the game and is the value play. Actually, the oddsmakers kind of tipped their hand on this one when they installed UCF as the favorite on the opening number, knowing full well that was going to attract Rutgers money, and that's precisely what has taken place. I totally agree with the assessment of the Bookmakers and believe Central Florida will win the game. First off it's a virtual home game for UCF and from what I can gather, there's not a whole lot of pop among the Rutgers fan base over this less than spectacular matchup. The Scarlet Knights would have gotten a more prestigious bid had they not dropped their finale to West Virginia. On the flip side, UCF will be very well supported and the team seems very excited about the challenge. Beyond that, UCF is a bowl underdog that allows fewer than 100 yards per game on the ground, and this has been a huge winning angle for many post-seasons. That means the dog fits both statistically and from a likely motivational standpoint, and those two factors put me squarely on Central Florida plus the points.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-19-09

DOC Sports


Matchup: M. Tennessee at So. Miss.
Time: 8:30 PM EDT (Sun)
Play: So. Miss. (-3.5 -110)


7 Unit Play. #36 Take Southern Miss over Middle Tennessee State (New Orleans Bowl Sunday 8:30 pm ESPN)

This is almost like a home game for the Golden Eagles, as this will be their second straight trip to the Superdome and their fourth visit in the last six years. This was a team that had high expectations for the season with 19 starters back from 2008. They were competitive this year but did suffer five road losses. As for the Blue Raiders, they will enter this game hot on a six game winning streak. As you look further into this you will see that they played weak conference teams. QB Dasher is a big time playmaker but I question the talent behind him. The Eagles have experience on defense and look for them to contain QB Dasher. The Eagles have the offense to light-up the scoreboard and I just do not believe that the Blue Raiders will be able to keep pace. Southern Miss 42, MTS 28.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-19-09

Kelso:

50 units Fresno State -10.5
25 units Dallas Cowboys +7.5

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-19-09

tim trushel
wyoming/ regular

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-19-09

Brett Atkins

Saturday
25 Dime NFL Saturday Night Super Lock - DALLAS COWBOYS

Dallas has the ability to stop teams and pressure quarterbacks and they will get after Drew Brees tonight and stop the Saints' running game, which is really the catalyst for the passing game. New Orleans has failed to cover in five of their last seven and two of their last three at home. Dallas is in a must-win and even if they fail, it won't be by more than this spread. Grab the points and play the Cowboys.





10 Dime Bowl Book Buster - WYOMING COWBOYS

Fresno State always plays to the level of the competition. If they have to rise up, they do. If they are playing a mediocre team, the Bulldogs put on a mediocre performance. They are 0-4 ATS in bowl games as favorites and they play uninspired in games like this. Wyoming will give it everything they have and they are 7-2 ATS in their last nine. Grab all these points and play the Cowboys.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-19-09

Chuck O'Brien

SATURDAY'S WINNERS ...

PLEASE NOTE: I'm intentionally shying away from tonight's NFL game between the Cowboys and Saints. The reason is it is a very, very difficult game to handicap and I truly believe the line is incredibly sharp -- meaning there is no value on either side. Because of that, I'm taking a pass, as I would never issue a premium selection on a game that I'm not personally playing myself.


20 DIME - WEST VIRGINIA (minus the points vs. Cleveland State)

10 DIME - WYOMING (plus the points vs. Fresno State in the New Mexico Bowl)



West Virginia


BREAKDOWN: Cleveland State was one of college basketball’s darlings a season ago, winning 26 games and upsetting 12th-ranked Wake Forest in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. Turns out, the Vikings were a one-hit wonder. They returned just two starters from last year’s squad, and though they won three of their first four to begin the season, they’ve since lost six of their last seven, with the only win during this stretch coming against Wilberforce of the NAIA! … Meanwhile, West Virginia is ranked seventh in the nation and is off to a perfect 7-0 start, with six of those victories being double-digit blowouts (all by 18 points or more). The only team to hang with the Mountaineers to this point was Texas A&M (73-66 final on a neutral court), and A&M has been ranked the last several weeks. … The Mountaineers have had some offensive lulls in recent games (they scored just 68 points against Duquesne and 69 against Coppin State the last two games), but their defense has been superb all year, allowing just 55.1 ppg (including holding the aforementioned Duquesne and Coppin State to 39 and 43 points, respectively). On the other hand, defense is a foreign concept to Cleveland State, which gives up more than 71 ppg, including a 78-70 home loss to Robert Morris on Tuesday. At the same time, the Vikings are averaging just 60.7 ppg during their six-game losing streak to Division I opponents. … Finally, in its only game against a Top 25 opponent so far, Cleveland State got punked by Kentucky 73-49 as a 12-point underdog at a neutral site.



Wyoming (in the New Mexico Bowl)


BREAKDOWN: Wyoming was just a 6-6 football team and has one of the worst offenses of any bowl team in recent memory (in fact, the Cowboys were shut out three times this year), while Fresno State went 8-4, has the nation’s leading rusher, put up more than 34 points per game and nearly knocked off Wisconsin and Cincinnati, both on the road. So why take the points here? Because the Bulldogs have a history of laying down like, well, dogs, in mediocre bowl games against inferior competition. Consider: In its last nine bowl games, Fresno is 3-1 SU and ATS as an underdog, but 0-5 SU and ATS as a bowl favorite. Add it up and the ‘dog has won and covered eight of the Bulldogs’ last nine bowl contests (with seven outright upsets). That includes Fresno’s 40-35 loss to Colorado State as a two-point favorite in last year’s New Mexico Bowl …. The Bulldogs have been a brutal favorite overall in recent years, cashing just eight times in their last 30 as a chalk while going 5-15 ATS in their last 20 as a double-digit favorite. Meantime, Wyoming closed the coach Dave Christensen’s first year on a 7-2 ATS run (6-2 ATS as a ‘dog). … There’s no telling what Fresno State’s mindset is going to be playing in the same bowl game for the second straight year against an opponent that needed a one-point win in its final game just to get to .500 and earn a bowl game. At the same time, Wyoming is stoked to be in its first bowl game since 2004 – when, ironically, it upset UCLA 24-21 as a 12½-point underdog

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-19-09

Al DeMarco Saturday's Play 15 Dime - New Orleans Saints

I am not at all concerned that New Orleans struggled to score three-point wins at Atlanta and Washington the past two Sundays. You might recall that prior to beating up New England late last month, the Saints were in a similar spot. True, they had crushed Tampa a week earlier, but the Sunday prior they barely got by lowly St. Louis on the road 28-23, and that game was preceded by a tough 30-20 home win versus under-performing Carolina.

Unlike the Colts, who are seemingly wishy-washy when it comes to their desire to either finish 16-0 or rest their starters for an anticipated lengthy playoff run, New Orleans wants an undefeated season, not only for the long down-trodden franchise, but for the community, which has used the team as a rallying point since Hurricane Katrina. And they've got a head coach in Sean Payton and quarterback in Drew Brees that know only one way to play: all-out, all the time.

This is another opportunity for the Saints to serve notice to the public and the NFL that they are as good as advertised. A marquee foe on national TV just like when the Patriots came calling on Monday night. I was all over New Orleans in that contest and I'm backing the Saints again tonight for many of the same reasons.

Think about this: New Orleans has greater balance and is more lethal offensively than the San Diego team that just upset the Cowboys in Dallas. Brees directs an offense that averages 426 yards and 35.8 points per game. Plus, the Saints' receiver corps is better than San Diego's and their three-headed running back trio of Pierre Thomas, Mike Bell and Reggie Bush offers talent and diversity that the Chargers could only dream of with an aging LT propping up the backfield.

The Saints are on a 10-4 ATS run in the Superdome, where they've scored huge wins in their three biggest games this season, rolling over the then-undefeated Jets 24-10, crushing the then-undefeated Giants 48-27, and blowing out the supposedly invincible Patriots 38-17. On the other hand, all I can say about the Cowboys - other than the fact they've lost two in a row - is that they've failed to cover six straight road games in the month of December.

Expect a high-scoring entertaining affair with the Cowboys hanging tough for most of the first half - much like the Patriots did - before Brees pulls the Saints away with a second-half burst as New Orleans prevails 37-20.


Strategy:

This line moved up from 7 to 7 1/2 on Friday. Go ahead and buy down the 1/2 point if you have New Orleans at -7 1/2. If your price is -8, forget about buying the hook because that's not a key number to concern yourself with when it comes to buying insurance.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-19-09

Anthony Redd Saturday's Card 40-Dime - Cowboys

20-Dime - Cowboys-Saints Over

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-19-09

Joel Tyson

SATURDAY'S SELECTIONS

500? - New Orleans Saints minus the points
200? - Fresno State minus the points
200? - Rutgers Scarlet Knights minus the points



After watching Dallas implode on Sunday at home in a game they had to have, and after watching Indy handle matters on Thursday at Jacksonville, I am convinced the Saints will keep pace with the Colts, and kick some Dallas ass this Saturday night. The Dallas December Dive is for REAL, as the Cowboys stand at 3-15-1 against the spread their last 19 December games!
New Orleans is finally back home after playing just 1 home game in their last 5 games, and we all remember what happened the last time they played at home, as the crushed New England under the Monday night lights to make it a 10-4 home spread run their last 14.

Make it 11-4 after tonight.





200? - Fresno State minus the points

This is the same bowl game Fresno State played in last season, and it is the same bowl game that saw them lose to Colorado State as the 2 1/2-point favorite.With Wyoming making their first bowl showing since 2004, and their first under new Coach Dave Christensen, expect veteran Pat Hill and his staff to have a huge advantage, and also a hige motivational edge, as they look to make amends for last season's bust in this game.The Cowboys have been offensively-challenged this year, as they were blanked 3 times in their 12 games.
I can see this one getting away from the Pokes.

Bulldogs roll.





200? - Rutgers Scarlet Knights minus the points

Here is another case where I feel the line dictates the play.

Central Florida arguably closed stronger than Rutgers, and there is no denying the fact the Knights from Florida will have a stronger fan base, as this venue is about 100 miles from their campus.
Also of note, Rutgers WR Tim Brown is slowed by an ankle injury, and the Scarlet Knights did just finish up with their winter final exams.
Still, cannot argue with Greg Schiano's bowl success of late, as Rutgers has been a winner in their last 3 bowl games, covering in 2 of 3, as they just missed last season in a 29-23 win as the closing 6 1/2-point favorite.
Central Florida is making their 3rd bowl trip under George O'Leary, and thus far they are 0-for-2 straight up, and 1-1 against the spread.
I like the Knights from New Jersey to win their 4th straight bowl game, and cover this small impost.