12-18-09

[Mr. IWS]

NEW GUYS! LURKERS!

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[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-18-09

MREAST NCAAB FRIDAY PLAY OF THE DAY
The Pepperdine Waves once a program rich with talent, has fallen on hard times. They managed just 7 wins all last season, and early indications are they will have a tough time doing much better this season. They have played 2 teams that aren't even div-1 programs, and beat Cal St. San Bernardino at home by just 2, and lost to California Baptist, ouch! They have yet to be posted as a favorite this season, and over the last few years they are just 3-10 ATS in the favorite role. Aggies have 6 losses, all to quality opponents, as they have taken care of the poor teams on their schedule, and I'll back New Mexico St. in this one.

#531 NEW MEXICO STATE AGGIES @ #532 PEPPERDINE WAVES 10:30PM EST

PLAY ON #531 NEW MEXICO ST. AGGIES +3 -110 FOR 3 UNITS

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-18-09

RAS
CS Northridge
San Jose St

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-18-09

MTi's HOUSTON - DALLAS SIDE SELECTION!!

Matchup: Rockets at Mavericks
Pick: ROCKETS +5 (-110)

Analysis: The Mavs are off an easy 100-86 win over the Thunder. Nowitzki has 35 points and eleven boards, but he had more turnovers than assists. This is not a good sign for the Mavs chances here. Dallas is 0-9 ATS after a win in which Dirk had double-digit rebounds, but more turnovers than assists, failing to cover by an average of 11.2 ppg. In their last two, they lost to the Nets and Warriors as a favorite.

This is the third match-up between these two this season and the Mavs have won and covered both, shooting 55% and 65% from the field. The Mavs can be flat in this situation and, of course, the Rockets will be motivated to compete with a rival that has dominated them in the first two meetings of the season. Dallas is 0-7-1 ATS as a home favorite and when facing a team they beat in their previous two match-ups of the season. The one time they faced the Rockets in this situation, they lost 113-93 – remember, they were a home favorite every time. AND, Houston is 5-0 ATS on the road when seeking revenge for a loss as a home favorite in which they allowed at least 50% shooting from the field, covering by an average of 16.7 ppg.

The Rockets are off a 111-101 loss to the Nuggets in which they turned the ball over TWENTY times and allowed Denver to shoot 58.3% from the three-point line. Houston was in a bad spot against the Nuggets, but here they should be more focused. The Rockets are 9-0 ATS (+7.0 ppg) as a dog after a double-digit loss in which they committed at least twenty turnovers. and 12-0-1 ATS as a rested road dog by at least 3 points after a game in which they had at least five more turnovers than their season-to-date average.

More Specifically, Houston is 9-0 ATS (+7.7 ppg) after a loss on the road in which Chuck Hayes had more turnovers than assists and 5-0 ATS (+6.7 ppg) with at least a day of rest after a loss in which Tracy McGrady had more turnovers than assists.

Finally, the Rockets are 20-1-1 ATS when they are off a loss in which their opponent attempted at least ten three-pointers and made more than half of them. Their lone ATS loss in this situation came back in the 2001-02 season. In their lone active date in this situation this season, the Rockets beat the Lakers 101-91 getting 9 in LA. Nice. Grab the points and consider a moneyline play as we expect an upset.

MTi’s FORECAST: Houston 98 DALLAS 94

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-18-09

Tom Freese
NBA | Dec 18
Washington Wizards vs. Golden State Warriors Total
218 ov-121 at 5DIMES > 8h.
Golden St is 20-8 OVER their last 28 games and they are 25-10 OVER their last 35 home games vs. a team with a losing home record. The Warriors are 36-15 OVER their last 51 games as home favorites of 0.5 to 4.5 points and they are 4-1 OVER their last 5 games with the Wizards. Washington is 25-10-2 OVER their last 37 games vs. a team with a win percentage of less than 40% and they are 26-12 OVER vs. Pacific Division teams. The Wizards are 12-3 OVER their last 15 games as underdogs of 0.5 to 4.5 points and they are 4-1-1 OVER with one day of rest. PLAY ON 'OVER'

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-18-09

Dave Malinsky Top of the Ticket

CAL STATE NORTHRIDGE(-3) over Drexel Dragons

4* #528 C.S.-NORTHRIDGE over DREXEL

There is a cavernous gap in focus between these teams for this setting, and with Drexel having some tactical and logistical disadvantages what they are projecting as a close game in the marketplace has a chance to break wide open. Being at home means much more for Bobby Braswell and his Matadors than the oddsmakers appraisal for tonight. This will be their only game in the Matadome in a span of five weeks, and for a team that has already logged 11,521 air miles it creates a most favorable environment. That is accentuated by their pressing and trapping tactics, with Braswell once again having a deep rotation (11 players logging double-figure minute counts). That style is not conducive to early road success, of course, which helps to buy us their lower power rating, but now they get the home fans behind them, and some of those road challenges (particularly Purdue and Washington) will have accelerated their development process. Look for a fresh and hungry team to take the court tonight, one that will attack relentlessly for the full 40 minutes. That is not Drexel basketball, of course. The Dragons play a physical and methodical style that is the embodiment of coach Bruiser Flint, and they rarely go up against an opponent that forces this kind of tempo. The best way to attack the Matador presses is to go over the top and take the ball to the basket but that is not the Drexel way, and a sluggish offense that has connected at only a 39.8 percent clip so far, including a horrid 62.1 at the free throw line, faces an uphill battle vs. this defensive pressure. And that is even if they brought their ?A? game anyway. We do not expect to see a top level of efficiency from a team that has not played west of the Mississippi River since a game at Creighton in February of 2007, and they have not even traveled west of their own campus for a game this season. No one on the roster has ever played a game in the Pacific Time Zone, which makes the 10 PM tipoff on their body clocks an issue, and there is also the major distraction of a nationally televised game at Kentucky at Monday. For a team that harbors no at-large tourney considerations of any kind this result does not carry a lot of meaning, so do not be surprised if Flint experiments with some lineup combinations and treats it as more of an exhibition affair, something that Braswell will absolutely not do.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-18-09

Sports Wagers

NCAA BB

NC Greensboro +13½ over AKRON Pinnacle

It’s never a good idea to lay points with a team that has trouble scoring as the Akron Zips do. Akron shoots 62.4% from the foul line, 44% from two, and averages 98 points per 100 possessions, good for 248th in Division I. North Carolina Greensboro allows opponents to shoot 57.3% on two point field goals but with Akron shooting such a terrible percentage from two that weakness won’t be badly exposed. NC Greensboro’s record will back a lot of bettors off them but they have played a ridiculously tough schedule with the likes of Duke, Virginia, and Clemson all beating Greensboro thus far. I won’t make the case for a Greensboro victory but I can tell you I would never lay this many points with a below average team like Akron. You won’t see their name anywhere near any post season tournaments and if not for them playing at home this number would be closer to 5 or 6. Massive overlay. Play: NC Greensboro +13½ (Risking 2.16 units to win 2).

NHL
Ottawa +1.70 over NEW JERSEY (REG) Pinnacle
The Devils remain a tough out and likely will be the rest of the way including the playoffs. They’re among the elite teams in the league and you don’t need anyone to tell you that. However, this is another one of those vulnerable spots in which we could catch them off its game. The Devils have been home for 10 days and this will be its fifth consecutive at home. The Devils have played one road game since Nov 28 and that was a short trip to Buffalo. They’ll embark on a three-game trip starting tomorrow in Atlanta and could definitely be looking forward to getting away. Teams are very often flat in the last game of an extended home stand and it’s also worth noting that they’ve beaten the Sens twice already this year in two meetings so they have nothing to prove. Ottawa is coming off a pretty sweet 2-0 win in Buffalo. They’ve now won three of four and they’re almost always ready to play. The tag is also pretty sweet when you consider how tough the Sens have been and that New Jersey is not a team like San Jose, Pittsburgh or Chicago in that they don’t score nearly enough goals to be trusted as this big a favorite over a quality team. Overlay. Play: Ottawa +1.70 (Risking 2 units).

CHICAGO -½ +1.01 over Boston (REG) Pinnacle
How good are the Blackhawks? This team might be the best the NHL has to offer and they seem to be doing it with ease these days. They’ve shut out its last two opponents and have now allowed just four goals against in its last five games. They’re just two points behind the Sharks for the lead in the West but they’ve also played three less games than San Jose. The Blackhawks are loaded. They play great defense, they roll out three lines that can all score and a fourth line that would be a second or third line anywhere else. In 17 home games this year they’ve won 14. The Blackhawks are rested, soaring with confidence and although they rarely see the Bruins, it’s been six years since they beat them and you can be damn sure the local papers will have already pointed that out to them. The Bruins are good too but they’re the second best team here and it’s not close. Boston also lost two of its starting defenseman in its last game as both Denis Wideman and Mark Stuart will be on the rack for a few games. Oh, the Bruins also have the Leafs on deck tomorrow in Toronto on Hockey Night in Canada. Play: Chicago -½ +1.01 (Risking 2 units).

ST. LOUIS -½ +1.01 over Tampa Bay (REG) Pinnacle
The Lightning lost again last night in Detroit despite not being outplayed. They played nose to nose with the Red Wings but like they always do recently, they came out on the losing end. The Bolts have now lost six in a row and 10 of its last 11. That’s incredible for a team with the talent they have but the fact is, only a handful of players are giving it all they have and LeCavalier isn’t one of them. The Lightning is also hurting on defense where they don’t know who should play and who should sit anymore. Furthermore, they’ve been shutout in three of its last six games and now have the second least amount of goals in the league with 81. Lastly, the Lightning will play its fifth road game in seven days, its third in four and the tail end of back-to-backs after a very frustrating night in Detroit. No excuses for the Blue Notes here. Play: St. Louis -½ +1.01 (Risking 2 units).

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-18-09

John Ryan Sports
Handicapper: John Ryan Sports
Sport: NBA Basketball
Game: Milwaukee Bucks @ Cleveland Cavaliers - Friday December 18, 2009 8:00 pm
Pick: 3 units ATS: Cleveland Cavaliers -9.5 (-110)

Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Cleveland as they take on Milwaukee set to start at 8:00 EST. AiS shows a 73% probability that Cleveland will win this game by 10 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 79-41 ATS for 66% victories since 1996. Play on home teams after 4 or more consecutive wins and is a good team victorious 60% to 75% of their games playing a marginal losing team victorious 40% to 49% of their games. AiS shows an 85% probability that Cleveland will score between 99 to 104 points. Note that Cleveland is a rock solid 22-6 ATS (+15.4 Units) when they score 99 to 104 points in a game over the last 2 seasons. Take the Cavs.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-18-09

DOC

3-Unit Play #501 Take New Jersey/Toronto UNDER 203 1/2 (7 p.m. EST, Friday)
The Nets have been a little better offensively lately but they are still ranked dead last in the NBA in the three major offensive categories – points per game, shooting percentage and three-point shooting percentage. Toronto has a really bad defense, however they play much better on that end at home (or at least allow less points). The Raptors have been giving up a lot of points to some pretty good offensive teams but this team hasn’t been able to produce offensively itself. It has reached the century mark just once in the last six games and that was a 101-point outing against the Rockets. Five straight home games for Toronto have gone under. We think for this game to go over that either both teams need to get close to or over 100 or one team needs to go way over 100 and we just don’t see that happening. The under is 10-4-2 when the Nets hit the road.
4-Unit Play #508 Take Atlanta -6 Over Utah (7:30 p.m. EST, Friday)
Love the Hawks in this spot as we thought this game would be a bit higher. Atlanta is one of the best home teams in the NBA at 11-2 and they have gotten the job done here ATS as well, at 10-3 ATS for home games. So obviously, when they win they cover and this team has been shackled with some very high lines too. Utah is traditionally a bad road team and they have proven that to be the case this season as well. They are 4-6 ATS on the road both straight up and ATS. Utah is a little overvalued right now because they have had a home-heavy schedule but when they have gone on the road they have been lackluster and besides a win over New Jersey they lost to the T-Wolves and got blown out by the Lakers in their last three road games. The favorite is 12-2 ATS in the last 14 meetings.
6-Unit NBA Game of the Month #518 Take Oklahoma City -4 1/2 Over Detroit (8 p.m. EST, Friday)
Detroit has lost two in a row and seem to be regressing a bit. They recently had a 5-game win streak but four of those wins came at home and there is only one that we would call a “quality win,” a victory over Denver. The Pistons are banged up and have several key players as questionable tonight but we like the Thunder here even if everyone is a go. They have struggled a bit lately, losing four of their last eight. However, those losses came to Houston, Cleveland, Denver and Dallas and the Thunder were only favored in one of those games. But lately they have been beating the teams they should be beating and we think that is the case tonight. The Thunder have covered in all 12 of their wins this season and we expect that will be the case again tonight. This team has covered five straight in this series and in seven of the last eight meetings.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-18-09

FerRringo 12/18 NCAABB

1.5-Unit Play. Take #529 San Jose State (+1) over UC-Irvine (10 p.m.)
Irvine’s only wins have come against two D-II schools, LMU, Fairleigh Dickinson and banged-up Hawaii. They have done next to nothing to impress me. I like this San Jose State team. They have not played well this year. But they also have played some decent teams in some tough spots. Have they been impressive? No. But I think that they have more talent, I think that they have more experience, I think that they are a better team from a better conference, and I don’t think that they should be underdogs here.

0.5-Unit Play. Take #528 CS-Northridge (-2.5) over Drexel (10 p.m.)

0.5-Unit Play. Take #523 Utah State (-4) over Long Beach State (10 p.m.)

0.5-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #529 San Jose State (+6) over UC-Irvine (10 p.m.) AND Take #531 New Mexico State (+7.5) over Pepperdine (10:30 p.m.)

0.5-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #534 Akron (-8) over UNC-Greensboro (7 p.m.) AND Take UC-Santa Barbara (+9) over Montana State (9 p.m.)

0.5-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #526 St. Mary’s (-5.5) over Pacific (10 p.m.) AND Take #529 San Jose State (+6) over UC-Irvine (10 p.m.)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-18-09

DOC


6-Unit NBA Game of the Month #518 Take Oklahoma City -4 1/2 Over Detroit (8 p.m. EST, Friday)
Detroit has lost two in a row and seem to be regressing a bit. They recently had a 5-game win streak but four of those wins came at home and there is only one that we would call a “quality win,” a victory over Denver. The Pistons are banged up and have several key players as questionable tonight but we like the Thunder here even if everyone is a go. They have struggled a bit lately, losing four of their last eight. However, those losses came to Houston, Cleveland, Denver and Dallas and the Thunder were only favored in one of those games. But lately they have been beating the teams they should be beating and we think that is the case tonight. The Thunder have covered in all 12 of their wins this season and we expect that will be the case again tonight. This team has covered five straight in this series and in seven of the last eight meetings.



4-Unit Play #508 Take Atlanta -6 Over Utah (7:30 p.m. EST, Friday)
Love the Hawks in this spot as we thought this game would be a bit higher. Atlanta is one of the best home teams in the NBA at 11-2 and they have gotten the job done here ATS as well, at 10-3 ATS for home games. So obviously, when they win they cover and this team has been shackled with some very high lines too. Utah is traditionally a bad road team and they have proven that to be the case this season as well. They are 4-6 ATS on the road both straight up and ATS. Utah is a little overvalued right now because they have had a home-heavy schedule but when they have gone on the road they have been lackluster and besides a win over New Jersey they lost to the T-Wolves and got blown out by the Lakers in their last three road games. The favorite is 12-2 ATS in the last 14 meetings.



3-Unit Play #501 Take New Jersey/Toronto UNDER 203 1/2 (7 p.m. EST, Friday)
The Nets have been a little better offensively lately but they are still ranked dead last in the NBA in the three major offensive categories – points per game, shooting percentage and three-point shooting percentage. Toronto has a really bad defense, however they play much better on that end at home (or at least allow less points). The Raptors have been giving up a lot of points to some pretty good offensive teams but this team hasn’t been able to produce offensively itself. It has reached the century mark just once in the last six games and that was a 101-point outing against the Rockets. Five straight home games for Toronto have gone under. We think for this game to go over that either both teams need to get close to or over 100 or one team needs to go way over 100 and we just don’t see that happening. The under is 10-4-2 when the Nets hit the road.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-18-09

VEGAS RUNNER

NBA "TRUE STEAM" for Friday 12-18-09 :


1.) MEMPHIS opened -4.5....Now -6

This is a very big move and extremely significant because with 2 ESPN Games...and a handful of good match-ups, this game will receive very little "volume"...And if I know this, it's obvious that the books do as well...Which is why as soon as the Wiseguys went to work laying the number with Memphis...the books had no problems adjusting...

What stuck out to me the most was that the books wouldn't put a line up on this game until very early this morning...And as soon as they did, we saw that the Wiseguys immediately felt that the line was too low...More importantly, after the first Syndicate or two bet it when the line first went up...forcing the move from -4.5 to -5...we then saw a few more come in about an hour later and lay -5...Which tells me that there are a handful of Wiseguys who all agree that the number was too low...

The books didn't take any more chances this time...and went to -6 right away...

Now don't be surprised if this line takes a dip before game-time...Especially if between now and then, this line climbs a bit more...

Because I know from experience that plenty of these Outfits will take the opportunity to limit liability, while possibly setting up a "middle"...By coming back and taking the points for a small amount before tip-off...Which will then force a late adjustment...VR



LINE PREDICTION : I would be surprised to see this line get any higher, because I know for sure that the Outfits were able to take a substantial "position" already...And I think that if they wanted a bigger one, they would have done so...Because this isn't a game that will get "volume", like we touched on above...Which means that they can't count on the betting public's money to help them get a better line than where it is right now...And because of that, I wouldn't be surprised as I stated earlier...to see this one drop a little...If you agree with the Wiseguys, you may want to sit back and wait for a possible drop...But if you disagree, then I would go ahead and grab the points now because you probably won't get much better...VR

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-18-09

MTI
4.5* houston rockets
5* denver nuggets

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-18-09

Northcoast Marquee
Villanova

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-18-09

Steve Merril

Montana might be the #1 seed in the I-AA playoffs, but this is because they play in an overrated Big Sky conference and they did not face any I-A opponents this season. Villanova plays in a much stronger conference as the CAA had four teams in the quarterfinals this season (Villanova, William & Mary, Richmond, New Hampshire). Appalachian State won three straight I-AA titles from 2005-2007, but the other two recent champions have both been from the CAA with James Madison in 2004 and Richmond in 2008. In fact, the Spiders defeated this same Montana team 24-7 in last year’s championship game. Montana barely won last week as Appalachian State had the ball on the 2 yard line, but failed to score a tying touchdown on the final play of the game. It was a difficult scheduling situation for Appalachian State as the Mountaineers were playing back-to-back road games, while Montana had the advantage of staying home for all three playoff games. Montana was fortunate in their first two playoff wins this season as they overcame a 48-21 deficit against South Dakota State in the first round and then benefited from an incredible 10 turnovers by Stephen F. Austin in the quarterfinals. My power ratings favor Villanova by 4 points tonight on a neutral field, so we get line value, and the Wildcats outscored their opponents by +18.4 points per game this season, while Montana only outscored their opponents by +18.2 ppg, despite playing a schedule that was -5.0 points per game weaker on average, making an adjusted line of Villanova as a 5½-point favorite tonight based on opponents played. The Wildcats have the better rushing attack as they average a 5.1-2.3 yards per carry edge, while Montana is just 4.2-3.0 ypr over their weaker opponents. Villanova also has the better defense, permitting just 13.6 points per game and only 4.6 yards per play, while Montana allows 18.7 ppg and 4.8 yppl. The weather forecast is calling for wet and cold conditions tonight, which favor the team with the better rushing attack and defense.
Play VILLANOVA (-).