12-5-09

[Mr. IWS]

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[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-5-09

Docs

4 Unit Play. #14 Take Illinois -3 over Fresno State (Saturday 12:30 pm Big Ten Network) The Illini had one of the most disappointing seasons in the country and they never seemed to recover from the opening loss to Missouri. As for Fresno, they have played competitive at times, but the bottom teams from the WAC have helped make their record misleading. In a high scoring affair, look for the Illini to send their seniors off with a victory. QB Williams will be playing his final game of his career and this will be a chance to showcase his abilities. I was surprised that Illinois will retain Coach Zook, but that is the case and the underclassmen know they better perform. Illinois needs this game to gain momentum for next year and the cold weather will help them, as the homer gets the call. Illinois 38, Fresno State 21.

4 Unit Play. #24 Take Rutgers -1 over West Virginia (Saturday 12 pm ESPN) The Scarlet Knights are catching West Virginia at the perfect time, as the Mountaineers are coming off two big emotional games against Cincinnati and Pittsburgh. Defense will be the difference in this game as the Knights have the personnel to shut down West Virginia.
Rutgers has lost 14 straight against WVU. However, the Knights have four straight senior day games. Something has to give in this contest, but I always like to side with the home team. The 14-game losing streak will end in New Brunswick on Saturday. Rutgers 20, WVO 17.

4 Unit Play. #26 Take Washington +7 over California (Saturday 6:30 pm FSN) What a job Coach Sarkisian has done with this Huskies program. The team still lacks depth but under his leadership look for good things to come in the years ahead. QB Locker has played well this season and their shutout win last week against Washington State will give them a lot of confidence entering this game.
The Golden Bears have been up and down all year. They will play in a bowl game but I do not see any reason that they will be up for this game. The Huskies will not be going bowling and expect them to give an all-out effort in order to build momentum for 2010. I will call the straight-up victory. Washington 31, Cal 28.

4 Unit Play. #34 Take Under 41 ½ in Florida vs. Alabama (Saturday 4 pm CBS) Both teams have outstanding defense and I really question just how good the Tide are on offense. Scoring over 14 points may be very difficult for them. As for the Gators, their offense is loaded but this will be the best defense that they face in 2009. In championship games, usually teams test the water early which leads to less points being scored. The game last year was low scoring until Florida broke out in the fourth quarter, but I do not see that happening this season. All this leads me to believe that the total score will be kept in the low thirties. Florida 17, Alabama 14.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-5-09

Teddy Covers
12/5/09 CFB Arizona +7 (319)
12/5/09 CFB Alabama +5.5 (332)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-5-09

Norm Hitzges
NCAA
Double Plays

· Rutgers -1.5 vs WVU

· Alabama +5 vs Florida

Single Plays

· Arizona +7 vs USC

· Washington +7 vs California

· Cincy -1.5 vs Pittsburgh

· Clemson +1 vs Georgia Tech

· E. Carolina +2.5 vs Houston

· Nebraska +14 vs Texas

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-5-09

VR

3* CFB gow is Rutgers -1

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-5-09

Wunderdog

E. Carolina defends their CUSA championship in this game against the high-flying Cougars. While Houston's offense can certainly get it done, their defense is among the worst in the nation. When they are playing bad teams, it doesn't matter. But, when facing a legitimate team, they can struggle. In the second half of the season, Houston played two solid programs in Tulsa and UCF, both on the road as they are here. They lost one of those outright and were 0-2 ATS. So, while they have shown the ability to absolutely crush mediocre competition, and play well at home, there are questions when they head to the road vs. a formidable opponent. On the road this Cougars teams is allowing a ridiculous 36 points per game, so expect E. Carolina to have success when they have the ball. And, given that the Pirates defense has allowed just 18 points per game at home, they should also have success slowing down Case Keenum and the Houston offense. Houston is 0-6 ATS since last season when coming off back-to-back wins. Over the past three seasons they are 0-7 ATS as a road favorite of a TD or less. Meanwhile, E. Carolina is 21-10 ATS as an underdog under Skip Holtz. I like the Pirates at home plus the points.

Game: W. Virginia at Rutgers (Saturday 12/05 12:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on W. Virginia +1.5 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)

West Virginia opened as a 2.5 point favorite but now find themselves getting points in this game. I think the oddsmakers had it right the first time. The Mountaineers aren't playing for the Big East championship, but they are going Bowling. And, a win here will likely earn them a spot in a prestigious New Year's day game instead of something much less exciting. A 3-point loss to Cincinnati on November 13 is what kept them out of the Championship game, but we can look for positives in that game. The Mountaineers were double-digit dogs to a very powerful Bearcats team and it was a fight as they lost by just a field goal. West Virginia also lost to South Florida two games prior and Auburn earlier in the year. The only loss that was a bad one was vs. S. Florida. Otherwise they have won every game they were supposed to win this season and they aren't being asked to cover a big number here. They are 2-1 ATS this season as a dog and they are coming off a confidence-building win over Pittsburgh. West Virginia has won 15 straight vs. Rutgers and are 30-4-2 all-time in the series. I like the Mountaineers to get it done here.

Game: Florida vs. Alabama (Saturday 12/05 4:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 41 -110 (risk 3 to win 2.7)

The most anticipated game of the year is here with #1 Florida taking on #2 Alabama. This game may make the National Championship game pale in comparison. The winner gets to play in that game and the loser's hopes of a national title are gone. With the stakes so high, expect high-intensity and high nerves - both helping a play on the UNDER. Mark Ingram, Alabama's Heisman-hopeful running back injured his hip and was limited to just 30 yards and 1.9 yards per carry in Friday's game vs. Auburn. Oh, and these defenses are pretty good. Florida owns the #1 defense in the country and it's the reason they are here. This team has allowed a ridiculous 9.8 points per game! No opponent has scored more than 20 points on the Gators all season. Bama's defense is right there, ranked 3rd in the nation. They are 2nd in the country in points allowed, behind Florida at 10.8 points per game. The most this team gave up this season was 24 - and that was all the way back in early September in their opener. So, we have the top two defenses in the land, giving up a combined 20.6 points per game, and this total is set twice that high. Yes, these are good offenses, but not elite offenses. The defenses should dictate. The Tide are 17-5 UNDER in their last 22 games vs. teams that rush for 200+ yards per game. High intensity and low-scoring is what I expect in this game.

Game: California at Washington (Saturday 12/05 6:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 58 -110 (risk 3 to win 2.7)

The fact that Cal is just a TD favorite over Washington here says a lot about both teams. California was ranked 12th in the nation to start the season and was supposed to challenge for the Pac-10 championship. But, after blowout losses to Oregon and USC, that was over. They come into this game however off strong performances vs. Arizona and Stanford, holding those teams to 44 combined points. Washington is 3-1 at home vs. conference foes, holding USC, Stanford, Arizona and Washington state to an average of just 20 points per game. Cal's offense has averaged just 23.8 points per game over their last four. Their last game vs. Stanford saw 62 points scored and under head coach Jeff Tedford, this team is 14-5 UNDER on the road coming off an OVER and 19-10 UNDER after a game in which 60+ points were scored. I expect this one to go UNDER the total.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-5-09

Stu Feiner
1,000,000 Dime Private Play
Rutgers ML

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-5-09

Malinsky

4* #315 SAN JOSE STATE over LOUISIANA TECH

One of the classier coaches in college football will close a solid career in this game, and one of the biggest SR classes will also be finishing their college careers. That is a setting for an excellent effort from the underdog, yet the markets want no part of Dick Tomey and his Spartans here; in fact they have been running this line up all week. Now it is in one of the pointspread ranges this is not supposed to happen, and it is plenty for us to get involved.The base pointspread concept behind this one is deceptively simple, but works year in and year out – in the final three games of the regular season, a team should never be favored by more than their scoring averaging when facing a conference opponent. It tells us that the marketplace is trying to use some side factors to make a team overcome a major weakness, and the fact that it is a league game insures that there is some integrity to the process. So what do we have here? Louisiana Tech is averaging 22.7 ppg through 10 lined games. The Bulldogs simply do not bring a lot of punch to the table, especially a passing attack that has been depleted at the WR spots since the start of the season, and rates 91th nationally in yards.But here is where it gets better – that struggling passing game is not the team’s biggest weakness. The defense has also faced major injury issues, and rates 96th against the Run, and 117th in Tackles for Loss. It does not get much better in the 12th game as some overworked bodies have to gut out four more quarters, especially for a LB crops that will only dress four players this week. If you can not score quickly on offense, and can not stop the opposition from running the ball and working clock, a blowout win is not easy to come by. And the mindset is not there either, with only two W.A.C. wins by more than this spread in Derek Dooley’s three seasons as head coach.Will San Jose bring it for Tomey? We will let veteran DT Liam Smith, one of 26 Spartans SR’s playing their last game, set the tone - "We really want to send him out with a victory. We all care about him so much. We want to rally together and do something special." Last week’s win over New Mexico State may have been ugly, but it brings some enthusiasm and a little momentum, and it is enough for them to keep this well under the high spread.

4* #322 WASHINGTON over CALIFORNIA

This is basically a bowl game for a much-improved Washington team that will bring both physical freshness and confidence to the table. This is a game in between “bowl” games for an over-rated California team that will compete to win, but not bring the kind of spark needed to get a margin. That means a prime upset opportunity for the Huskies, and the full TD being offered creates excellent value in a game that should go to the final possession.Washington has made some significant strides in Steve Sarkisian’s first season, and having a healthy Jake Locker was a luxury that was not there in 2008, which made the results worse than the program really was. Now in what may be Locker’s final college game they can let loose with every once of energy that they have, and that should be a significant stock – they had a bye two weeks ago, and merely coasted in that 30-0 whipping of Washington State last Saturday. They have gone 3-1 SU in Pac 10 play on this field, and note that despite losing to L.S.U. and Oregon on the scoreboard, they won those games by 11 first downs and 116 yards in that stat columns, but fell victim to a -3 turnover differential over those eight quarters, with two of the TO’s being returned directly for scores. At no time were they ever physically out-played in front of the home fans this autumn.As we have noted a couple of times this season, the Bears never deserved those lofty ratings back in August, and have not really been a disappointment – this is who they are. Yet their reputation never got lowered to the proper power rating level in the eyes of the marketplace, which explains why a team could be -16 on the scoreboard, and -205 in total offense, in Pac 10 play and still be this class of road favorite. They do not bring anything special physically that would call for domination in this matchup, and we do not believe the mental makeup will be there either – that win at Stanford in their last outing was a bowl-type atmosphere, and they will not have much turnaround time before playing their chosen bowl game, which could be in as early as three weeks. From all reports a win here does not improve their positioning for that next game in any way, so do not be surprised to see a flat effort that leaves them vulnerable for what really should not be considered an “upset”.

4* #329 HOUSTON/EAST CAROLINA Under

With this Total now having reached the 70 plateau, they clearly do not have both sides of this equation balanced properly. And that means outstanding value in a game that will not flow anywhere near the all-out track meet that is being called for.Yes, Houston is involved. But note that at this plateau even the Cougars would only be 5-6 to the Over in lined games. Now consider the other side. East Carolina did not play in a game that got within a TD of this Total all season, and in 26 games the L2 years the Pirates have seen a scoreboard top 70 one time. But even that one deserves an * - a game that fell 74 vs. U.T.E.P. LY was sitting on 60 in the final minute, with late scores on a TD pass with 0:51 remaining, and then an onside kickoff return on the next play. There has not been a legit game over those two seasons for Skip Holtz team that has approached this count.Now Holtz will be going out of his way to slow the tempo, and the pieces are in place to do that. On their own turf the Pirates will adapt a run-first philosophy that can command the ball for long stretches against a pliable Houston defensive interior, and while stopping the Cougars is one of the toughest challenges in college football this season, East Carolina brings a veteran defense that has eight SR starters and two JR’s. That means the savvy to play contain, not making the kind of mental mistakes that lead to big plays, and note that is has been a big part of why they are in this game in the first place – they rate 4th nationally in goal line defense.Also note that when the Conference championship is on the line it is all about winning the game, which means a higher level of conservatism in the second half than usual. It brings us plenty of breathing room in this favorable line range.

4* #363 NEW ENGLAND over MIAMI

Let’s begin our N.F.L. week by locking in on this one, with 3’s available in the market as of Thursday afternoon. Those lines, of course, came when a major rumor was circulated this morning that Tom Brady was “questionable” for New England, and a game that had been as high as -6 began crashing. We will follow up later with more details on this game, with those “Bill Belichick off of a loss” numbers coming into play again, but for now here is the report filed by New England for the Thursday practice, which was more than 90 minutes after the mark surge took place –DID NOT PARTICIPATE:?RB Fred Taylor (ankle)?S Bret Lockett (groin).LIMITED PARTICIPATION:?WR Sam Aiken (hip)?LB Eric Alexander (groin)?TE Chris Baker (shoulder)?LB Tully Banta-Cain (shoulder)?NT Ron Brace (ankle)?WR Julian Edelman (forearm)?DE Jarvis Green (knee)?OT Nick Kaczur (ankle)?C Dan Koppen (knee)?OT Matt Light (knee)?RB Sammy Morris (knee)?G Stephen Neal (ankle)?LB Rob Ninkovich (knee)?OT Sebastian Vollmer (head)?DE Ty Warren (ankle)?LB Pierre Woods (groin).FULL PARTICIPATION:?QB Tom Brady (shoulder)?CB Shawn Springs (knee).We do not believe that we can be hurt by locking in now, and will go ahead with a full 4* play.ADDED INFO –OK, now the markets have had their fun and Brady’s status has is becoming well known, yet the books are still slow to trickle the game back up. That leaves outstanding value for the traditional handicap to get into play. In this week’s edition of ”Verities & Balderdash” we note those awful problems the Dolphins are having in the fourth quarter of games, allowing a league high in points. It happens when you have an inexperienced QB and one of the weakest sets of WR’s in the league, which means trouble making things happen, and also when the defense is so young at those key CB positions. Only the Lions, Raiders and Browns have a wider gap between Yards Per Pass and Yards Per Pass Allowed, and with the Patriots now seeing the Wildcat for the fourth time in the last two seasons it will be on that Miami passing attack to make things happen. That is far more than Chad Henne can shoulder right now, especially since the defense will one again be hard-pressed to make stops – the Patriots rolled to 432 yards in that earlier home win, with Randy Moss and Wes Welker running free to the tune of 15 catches for 231. As for Belichick off of a loss here are the numbers – in his last 21 appearances in the role the Patriots are a sparkling 20-1 SU and 18-3 ATS, beating the spread by 271 points in the process. That is a significant margin of 12.9 per game over what the oddsmakers are projecting. The base premise fits awfully well here, especially since a loss would reduce their division lead to a single game, and they take care of business against a young team that can be exploited by the experience and savvy that they bring to the table.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-5-09

BETTORS WORLD

3* Nebraska +14.5 over Texas

We'll admit to having a weakness for big dogs in huge games. But we won't play a game based solely on that. The game has to qualify using all of the same methods we use to handicap any other game. In this instance, Nebraska qualifies as we will detail below. Currently sportsbook.com has Texas -14 with a total of 43.5.

One often overlooked aspect of handicapping a game like this, is determining whether one "program" can compete with another. Not just whether this years edition of a given team can compete, but can the program in general, compete. In other words, is one school, in this case, Nebraska, capable of recruiting the talent to compete on the same level as the talent Texas is able to recruit? You'll find plenty of matchups in college football where one program simply dominates another. Perhaps once every decade, the lesser program will pull an upset, but by and large, there is a talent gap that will rarely close.

Nebraska passes the talent test. We aren't referring to great Nebraska teams of 20 years ago either. We're referring to recent history. One need only look at the last few games between these programs to determine whether the talent is there to compete. These two last played in 2007 and 2006. In 2007 it was a Texas team that went 10-3 and a Nebraska team that went 5-7. Final score was 28-25 Texas. In 2006 it was a 22-20 final in favor of Texas in a year that saw Nebraska go on to lose 21-7 to Oklahoma in the Big 12 Title game. It was Texas 31-7 in 2003 and then another 3 point win for Texas in 2002, 27-24, to round out this decade.

In fact these two teams have played 8 times since 1996. If you had given Nebraska 14 points in each of those games, their record against the spread would have been 7-1. Now, some may say, what a team did in 1998 has very little to do with what a team does in 2009. But that's not entirely true. Again, what we're trying to determine, is whether Nebraska is capable if recruiting the talent to compete with Texas. Had Texas blown out Nebraska the last 5 times they played, we'd say that perhaps Nebraska can no longer compete. But as you can see from the examples above, that is not the case. 3 of the last 4 games were decided by a field goal or less.

Now on to this game. Again, we refer to talent levels, heck, this the Big 12 Title game. Texas is a great team and at 12-0 is playing for more than the Big 12 Title. The National Title is obviously on the line here. Nebraska has earned the right to play in this game. At 9-3, this is a fine team. Sure, no National Title for the Cornhuskers. Just a nice Bowl game. But wouldn't the Big 12 Title be sweet while at the same time putting a kink in the Longhorns plans.

Regular readers of our stuff know where we are going next. Common opponents. For these two teams, there were 6. Texas was 6-0 against those teams averaging 38 points per game while giving up 15. Nebraska was 5-1, averaging 21 points per game and, like Texas, giving up 15 on average. The total yards tells the same story. Texas has an easier time moving the ball and also held opponents to fewer total yards. Simple numbers can tell us simple things. The conclusion, Texas is a better football team. But are they 14 points better?

The yards per point numbers against these common opponents suggest the margin is closer than 14. Texas has an offensive number of 9.9. Fantastic. Means they had no problem moving the ball AND putting it in the end zone. Nebraska has a ypp offensive number of 12.9. Not as good as Texas, but 12.9 is a good number. Defensively, Texas has a 17.1 while Nebraska has a very nice 19.6. Since Texas held opponents to fewer total yards on average, those numbers suggest Nebraska did a good job in the red zone. They gave up a few more yards but managed to keep teams out of the end zone.

Subtracting the defensive numbers from the offensive numbers, Texas is a +7.2 while Nebraska is a +6.7. Fairly even, with Texas having the offensive edge and Nebraska having the defensive edge.

Bottom line here is that Texas is the better team, but perhaps not 14 points better. The numbers suggest the gap is closer than that. Past history, and the talent level of these teams over the years also suggests the gap is closer than 14 points. Lastly, when you factor in the motivation of playing live on National Television, in prime time before every football fan in the nation, with the Big 12 Title on the line and the chance to play spoiler, Nebraska becomes an attractive side.

No question Nebraska needs to keep it close all the way through if they want a chance to win it in the end. If they fall behind early they will be in trouble, as they aren't built to come from behind against an offensive power house like Texas. This needs to be similar to the Texas Oklahoma game for Nebraska to have a chance. In that game, Oklahoma held Texas to 16 points in a 16-13 loss.

We're looking for both defenses to come up big on Saturday Night as they have all year long. We can't pass up the points here. As of this writing there are some 14.5's on the board. That hook may come in handy.

3* Nebraska +14.5 over Texas.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-5-09

Al DeMarco
Saturday's Play
10 Dime - Cincinnati

I lost with a free pick on Cincinnati last week at home against Illinois, but then again, the reason I used the Bearcats as a freebie - a selection I didn't bet on personally - was because I wasn't sure whether they'd take that game seriously with this one at Pittsburgh on the horizon with a BCS bowl berth going to the victor. And, that's exactly what happened as Cincy jumped to the early double-digit lead and toyed with the Illini throughout, coasting to the 49-36 win but failing to get the cover as the 22-point home chalk.

If you analyze the Cincinnati-Illinois game from just the "who covered" perspective, you missed the bigger point of that contest, which was judging the effectiveness of quarterback Tony Pike, who was making his first start since October 15. In the team's previous game against West Virginia, he had attempted four passes and thrown two scoring strikes off the bench, raising his season total to 17 touchdown passes versus three interceptions. Well, against Illinois, I'd say he passed - literally and figuratively - with flying colors, throwing six more TD passes as Cincinnati's offense, averaging 38 points and 478 yards per game, continued to hum.

Why Cincy was winning its tune-up for this showdown, Pitt was tackling West Virginia in its annual Backyard Brawl, coming up on the short-end of a 19-16 final as the Mountaineers kicked a game-winning 43-yard field goal as time expired. The Panthers really gave that game away, missing two field goals while watching quarterback Bill Stull, who has enjoyed a good senior season, return to his interception-prone ways, as he was picked off twice.

Is Pitt the better defensive team in this match-up? No question about that. And the Panthers can bring the heat with 43 sacks on the season. But Pike negates that pressure with a quick release and an outstanding corps of receivers.

Pittsburgh can run the ball with freshman Dion Lewis (131 yards per game average, 5.8 ypc), but the Bearcats actually got their own running game going in the season's final three games, making Pike all the more lethal.

The bottom line in this game is that Pitt doesn't have the offensive firepower to match points with Cincinnati. And while the Bearcats went on the road earlier this year in a big step-up game and delivered with a win at Oregon State, I look at Pitt and see a team that barely hung on against Notre Dame's passing attack, failed to get the job done against an average West Virginia squad, and needed a huge comeback and last-minute field goal to escape at home against another average Big East foe in Connecticut. Those weren't exactly "big game" performances from a Pitt team whose coach, Dave Wannstedt, has never impressed me either when the spotlight has shone brightly.

I think this will be one of the more entertaining, high-scoring games of the day with Cincinnati holding on to pull out the 37-31 win.

PAID BY ME!

GOOD LUCK GUYS!

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-5-09

B l a c K W i d o W / B i l L Y o u n G

5* W iseg uy Big East B LO WO UT on R utg ers -1(-110 at bodog)

Off their biggest win of the season, the West Virginia Mountaineers will let down this weekend after beating Pitt 19-16 in the Backyard Brawl last weekend. Rutgers has been great this year, posting an 8-3 record on the season. This is the best defensive team in the Big East, allowing just 16.8 points/game. They allow 15.5 points/game at home, while WVU allows 27.0 points/game on the road where they are just 1-3 this season. Rutgers is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) after having won 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 2 seasons. The Scarlet Knights are 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. Take Rutgers and lay the points.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-5-09

B l a c K W i d o W / B i l L Y o u n G

4* on Cincinnati/Pittsburgh UNDER 58.5(-110 at betus)

In a battle for the Big East Title, this will be a defensive game Saturday. Both teams are excellent defensively, with Cincinnati allowing 18.6 points/game and Pitt allowing 17.7 points/game. The last two meetings in this rivalry saw 41 combined points in 2007 and 49 combined points in 2008. The Bearcats are 11-2 UNDER (+8.8 Units) after scoring 42 points or more last game since 1992. The Panthers are 9-2 UNDER (+6.8 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons. Take the UNDER 58.5 points here.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-5-09

B l a c K W i d o W / B i l L Y o u n g

4* on USC -7(-108 at 5dimes)

USC hasn't shown this much value all season as just a small home favorite to beat Arizona, a team that has played it's way out of a Pac-10 Title. The Trojans have won the last two meetings in this rivalry by 7 points each, and they were expected to blow out the Wildcats in those two games. Now, with the odds makers adjusting this line down to 7, not much is expected from the Trojans here, and that's why we feel they will come out and dominate. The Trojans are 4-1 at home this year, scoring 34.8 points/game. Arizona is 2-3 SU & 1-4 ATS in road games this season, scoring just 23.7 points/game. USC is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) in home games off a blowout win by 21 points or more over a conference rival since 1992. The Trojans haven't played up to their capability this year, and that's why they are showing so much value here Saturday. Take USC and lay the points.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-5-09

B l a c K W i d o W / B i l L Y o u n G

6* W ido w W iseg uy Ba ma/Florida Co nfer ence Ch ampio nship GA ME OF THE YEAR on Alabama +6(-110 at SportsInteraction)

All season long, Alabama has been the more impressive team. The Gators lack the same offensive firepower they did a year ago, and with the Crimson Tide playing in the role of revenge from last year's 20-31 loss to Florida in the SEC Championship, they'll come out with a little extra fire in this year's meeting. Florida's schedule this season was much easier than Alabama's, with cupcake opponents all over it. The Crimson Tide have been more battle-tested this year, pulling out some close wins along the way against quality opponents. Those experiences, plus last year's close loss to Florida, will have them prepared to pull this one out in the end. Alabama is a perfect 7-0 ATS in road games vs. excellent passing defenses allowing 5.25 or less passing yards/att since 1992. The Gators have yet to play a team with as much balance as Alabama, and the Crimson Tide will be able to move the ball on this defense both on the ground and through the air. Florida's biggest strength is running the football, but they haven't faced a defense as stingy against the run as Alabama's. The Crimson Tide allow just 78 rushing yards/game and 2.7 yards/carry. Take Alabama and the points.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-5-09

B l a c K W i d o W / B i l L Y o u n g

4* on South Florida +7.5(-108 at 5dimes)

We see no way South Florida loses this game by more than a touchdown Saturday. 3 of the last 4 meetings in this series have been decided by 7 points or less, with the lone exception being a 38-16 home win by South Florida in 2006. The Bulls are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0. The Bulls are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game. The Huskies are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU win of more than 20 points. With starting QB Cody Endres out for the season for UConn, they are left with Zach Frazer who has completed just 52% of his passes this year with 7 touchdowns to 9 interceptions. Take South Florida and the points.