12-2-09

[Mr. IWS]

NEW GUYS! LURKERS!

Dont be afraid to post services if you come across them. Your posts will be appreciated for sure.

Just put them in the appropriate section (regular or premium)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-2-09

ras
Southern Methodist +1
UC Irvine -2.5
Portland St. +15.5
Sacramento St. +10
San Diego St. +3
Tulsa -2.5
Old Dominion +4.5
George Washington -3

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-2-09

NATIONAL SPORTS SERVICE PICKS

4* Dayton -3 over Miami-Ohio (NCAAB)

3* Pittsburgh -6 over Duquesne (NCAAB)

3* Clemson -4 over Illinois (NCAAB)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-2-09

Malinsky


4* #540 MIAMI F. over MINNESOTA

This line shows us that Miami is flying far beneath the national
radar screens right now, and we will not hesitate to take advantage
against a weary Minnesota team that faces particular issues in this
kind of setting.

Frank Haith?s Hurricanes brng a nice blend of veteran toughness from
SR?s Cyrus McGowan and Dwayne Collins inside, and James Dews on the
perimeter, and some excellent fresh talent in FR Durand Scott, and SO
Malcom Grant, a Villanova transfer. In some ways the chemistry may be
even better without explosive scorer Jack McClinton, and the schedule
has been ideal to build the chemistry ? they swept through Tulane,
UNC-Wlimington and South Carolina easily in the Charleston Classic,
and since then have only had two home walkovers over the last 10
days, which means plenty of time on the home practice court.

Meanwhile the Minnesota players might have trouble remembering what
the home practice court looks like right now. The Gophers left campus
over a week ago to make a long trip to Anaheim before playing three
tough games in four days, and then an even longer trip across country
for this one. While Tubby Smith?s team brings excellent depth and
defensive tenacity, there is going to be a real problem scoring
against this class of competition, especially on the road (this will
be their first true road game this season, and they only played one
non-conference road game LY). It is one of those cases in which depth
can sometimes present problems. Nine different players have made at
least one start, and each is averaging at least 16 minutes per game,
but while that helps on defense, the offensive flow has been awkward,
at best. They only shot 35.9 percent from the field in those weekend
losses to Portland and Texas A&M, and no player is averaging more
than Damion Johnson?s 12.3 per game. On the road against a physical
defense we expect them to have all sorts of problems in their
half-court sets, and eventually they lose contact in this one.

4* #551 NEW ORLEANS over TULANE

They have put the cart way ahead of the horse in this one, in a
typical inner-city rivalry in which easy wins are difficult come by.
In the last nine meetings the line has never been higher than -8
either way, and in six of those games the line was -2.5 or lower. In
seven of the games New Orleans won outright, including taking the
last three by a combined 24 points. So have either the Privateers
fallen that hard, or the Green Wave made such improvements, to make
this the proper price range? We don?t see it.

Tulane is not going to dominate many opponents. The Green Wave have a
decent back-court by are not imposing at all in the paint, which
explains an awful -49 rebounding deficit so far. They have lost the
battle of the boards in every game, including that 82-55 drubbing of
lowly Alabama State, and you do not build many margins when you are
not getting easy points around the basket, or controlling the glass.
And they also do not push the tempo to help build margins, averaging
just 62 points through their first five lined games.

New Orleans is also going to bring the preferred pace to cash a
ticket in this range ? the Privateers have not allowed an opponent to
reach 70 points yet, including road trips to Georgia and N. C. State.
Georgia transfer Billy Humphrey has fit well into this lineup and is
the best go-to scorer on the court (18.0 ppg), and local product
Charles Carmouche, the only player from the city starting for either
team, is becoming a nice compliment in the back-court, averaging
12.8. Those two provide the punch to be able to score through the
back-door, should that ne necessary, but we do not see it ever
getting that far.

Look for an intense struggle at a slow pace between these rivals that
makes this pointspread a mountain to overcome.

6* #580 VANDERBILT over MISSOURI

Missouri LY was one of the better ?meal ticket? teams for us in
recent memory in any sport ? we cashed more 6* tickets behind them in
one season than perhaps any college hoops team ever. It was one of
those cases in which the chemistry came together almost flawlessly
for Mike Anderson, and while those usual frenetic presses were the
vogue, it was the precision and execution that made them so special ?
they led the nation in assists, and were #2 in assist to turnover
ratio, steals, and turnover margin. But this is not that team. That
Tiger edition had NBA draft choices DeMarre Carroll and Leo Lyons up
front, and an excellent shooter in Matt Lawrence that made them
difficult to zone. Now the Anderson presses are still there, but not
much else in terms of polish at this early juncture in the season,
and it is going to take quite some time for them to develop.

The problem for Anderson is that in what should be a positive growing
process, his team is running into opponents that are going to play
smart and disciplined basketball. Missouri was never able to push the
pace against Old Dominion or Richmond in that weekend tourney at
South Padre Island, and the results were ugly. In splitting the two
games they made only 36-103 shots from the field, and in Saturday?s
loss to Richmond they managed all of five assists in 49 FG attempts.
SO Kim English summed it up best ? ?We allowed them to dictate the
tempo. If we?re forced to play slow-down basketball we?re not that
good of a team.? If they could not get their pace on a neutral
court vs. that class of competition, they are not going to have their
way in Nashville tonight.

Kevin Stallings will not try to turn this into a waltz, but he will
have his team playing the usual fundamentally-sound basketball. In
6-3 SR Jermaine Beal there is an excellent floor leader against those
Tiger presses, and with fellow starting G Brad Tinsley also at 6-3
there is the size to better handle those traps. Gutting out a tough
road win at Saint Mary?s, and then playing three games in as many
days at the Maui Invitational, has provided the Commodores with a
development tool that has them much further along than Missouri, and
expect that Tigers to particularly struggle in their half-court
defenses against the inside-out combinations that the Commodores
bring ? with A. J. Ogilvy operating down low, and Jeffery Taylor
living up to his billing on the perimeter (not only as a shooter; he
grabbed 10 rebounds in last Wednesday?s win over Arizona and leads
the team in steals), this can develop into a superb offense, one that
can get points from every position. That will completely break down
an opponent that is not ready for this class of challenge yet, and we
expect to see Missouri have serious issues on both ends of the court.
That makes this a much easier game for the host than the oddsmakers
are calling for, and we step it up accordingly.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-2-09

Dr. Big Daddy
NBA 12/2
10* Sacramento -1.5

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-2-09

Mr. East 12/2

MREAST NBA WEDNESDAY 26-5 ATS/9-1 ATS 5 UNIT BLAST

#505 TORONTO RAPTORS @ #506 ATLANTA HAWKS 7:00PM EST

PLAY ON #506 ATLANTA HAWKS -9 -110 FOR 3 UNITS

The Atlanta Hawks have improved steadily the last few years, and are ready to make a run at the NBA Eastern Title. Hawks losers just once at home, were offensively deficient in the playoffs, but things have changed. Hawks now 9-1 ATS when reaching the century mark, something that should come easy tonight vs a Raptor team that has allowed 100+ in 16 of 19 games, and 10 straight. Problem for Toronto, their defenseless style has led to a 2-14 ATS mark when coughing up 100+ on the defensive end. This is a continuation to a problem from a year ago, as the Raptors are now 5-26 ATS in their last 31 allowing 100+. Hawks will score here, and get the money in a high level 5 unit play.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-2-09

Randall the Handle

Tampa Bay +1.70 over BOSTON (REG) Pinnacle
In a year in which parity has never been higher it only makes sense to take back a tag like this on the Lightning or even against the Bruins. In fact, the Bolts have one less loss this season than the Bruins and even though Boston is currently on a 5-1 run, they could just as easily be on a 1-5 run. You see, five of the Bruins’ last six games have gone to overtime and seven of its past nine games have gone to OT as well. What that tells us is that they’re not putting away anyone and just about every game they’re in is a toss-up. Thus, as stated earlier and with that in mind, taking back +1.70 only makes sense. The Bolts are not an easy team to beat and the league’s elite hasn’t exactly pushed Boston to OT. Both Minnesota and Florida took the B’s to extra time, as did Buffalo, Atlanta and Ottawa among others. Overlay. Play: Tampa Bay +1.70 (Risking 2 units).

Vancouver +1.09 over NEW JERSEY (REG) Pinnacle
It’s really incredible that the Devils own a 17-6 record when you consider how tough every team is to beat these days. On paper, the Devils should not be this good and when you consider the injuries they’ve sustained, especially to key defensemen, it makes that record even more impressive. With that impressive record and a current three-game winning streak, the Devils stock is a little too high right now. Prior to its three game winning streak the Devils had dropped three in a row so it’s not like they’re on fire. They beat the Islanders, Ottawa and Boston but lost to Dallas, Nashville and Philly and these Canucks are definitely not an easy out. Vancouver will embark on a four-game road trip starting here after being at home since November 20. That has to be good for them and it’s also worth noting that Steve Yzerman and the Team Canada selection committee will attend this one, thus, you can expect a high-intensity game, specifically from both goaltenders and when Roberto Luongo is at his best, he is the best. Play: Vancouver +1.09 (Risking 2 units).

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-2-09

Royal Sports
NBA 9* Play-Indiana Pacers

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-2-09

Kelso Basketball Best Bets Club

CBB

5* George Washington -5
4* Oklahoma -13
3* Rice +6

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-2-09

ferringo
3.5-Unit Play. Take #521 Dayton (-3.5) over Miami, OH (7 p.m., Wednesday, Dec. 2)
The road team has covered three straight and Dayton has won four of five outright in this series. There are three things keeping this number down. First, Miami is at home. Second, the last three games have been determined by an average of just under three points per game. And third, Miami is coming off a 24-point win while Dayton wasn’t even close to covering in a close win over Towson. However, I think all of those things have created value for us. Dayton won by five in this game last year and Miami lost 21 of the 40 points from that game. They just don’t have the high-end talent that they have had recently and I just don’t think that they are as strong. Dayton, on the other hand, lost just one contributor from last year’s victory and brought everyone else back. The Flyers are one of the top 35 or 40 teams in the country and a likely NCAA Tournament team. They had a disappointing trip to San Juan and they know that they need to get it going in the nonconference. They will be way up for this game and I think that it will be their best performance to date. Miami is just 3-8-1 ATS in its last 12 games.

2.5-Unit Play. Take #569 BYU (+1.5) over Utah State (9 p.m., Wednesday, Dec. 2)
So far this year the Mountain West has owned the WAC. They are 7-2 SU and 6-3 ATS in the nine matchups so far this year, and that is in keeping in how the conferences have performed against one another over the last few years. The Mountain West is just better, and it will be better here tonight. The home team and Utah State have been the plays in this series. But I think that BYU keeps it going after back-to-back solid wins over the Aggies.

2.5-Unit Play. Take #565 Missouri State (-2) over Arkansas-Little Rock (8:30 p.m., Wednesday, Dec. 2)
Almost pulled the trigger on Evansville at Tennessee Tech last night. And glad I didn't because they didn't cover by a half-point in double-overtime. But the reason I like that play is the same reason I like this one: relative conference strength. I know that UA-LR is a solid little team. But they are in the middle-to-lower tier of the Sun Belt whereas Missouri State is in the upper tier of the Missouri Valley, a much stronger conference. This line has gone from Little Rock -1 to Missouri State -2 and I think it's because the oddsmakers made a mistake. The Bears have impressive wins over good teams that people don't realize like Eastern Michigan, Auburn and The Citadel. And if MSU is good enough to beat Tulsa they are good enough to beat Little Rock.

2-Unit Play. Take #577 Duke (-4) over Wisconsin (7 p.m., Wednesday, Dec. 2)
I absolutely loathe playing Duke in this spread range and I actually like this play about double what it is rated. But I have respect for Bo Ryan and the magic of Madison. That said, I still will put my money on the better team here. Wisconsin was all over the map in Maui and I still don't know what to make of them. They entered a year as a team I was looking to play against, they actually exceeded my expectations watching them in Hawaii, but now I still don't know if I should be worried about them in these spots. Duke is large and athletic. And the core of this team is the same as the one that went into Purdue last year in this event and absolutely tomohawked the Boilermakers. I'm on record as backing the ACC in this event so I will back them here with the Blue Devils.

1-Unit Play. Take #582 Ohio State (-6.5) over Florida State (7:30 p.m., Wednesday, Dec. 2)
Note: This should be a 2-Unit Play. Grade it as a 2-Unit Play.

Rare stepout on the Big Ten in this event and I hope I don't regret it. Ohio State is a team that I like, even though I feel that they haven't played up to their potential just yet. The reason I like them here is that they are a perimeter-oriented team that I think will be more aggressive and more confident at home. They really should have beaten North Carolina in Madison Square Garden (not that I'm bitter) and now here, playing at home, against a Florida State team that is weaker than that Carolina one, I think it has all the makings for a blowout. Florida State also has to be a bit exhausted after a really grueling comeback win over Marquette (a team that is not as good as Ohio State, and FSU was down 11 in the second half on a neutral court) and after playing three tough games in three days (this after getting rocked in a rivalry game at Florida). How much do the Seminoles have left in the tank?

1.5-Unit Play. Take #530 Richmond (-3.5) over Old Dominion (7 p.m., Wednesday, Dec. 2)
I didn’t really like the spread in this game, but it keeps moving in our favor so I'm all over it after an open of -6.5. I feel like I have to just throw it out there to cash on Richmond. This team just beat Missouri and Mississippi State, two teams that topped Old Dominion in the same tournament, and the Spiders have revenge for a tight loss last year to ODU. I distinctly remember that game because we cashed with Richmond for double this, and I remember what dicks ODU were in that contest. Well, revenge time. Richmond has gone 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings and the home team has won nine of 10 matchups. Both teams essentially have everyone back, except the Spiders added Dan Geriot underneath. Richmond shoots out of its mind at home and I think that they will do so tonight. This one is going to be close, but I like the Spiders to take care of business and win by six points, 76-70.

1-Unit Play. Take #532 Georgia (-2.5) over St. Louis (7 p.m., Wednesday, Dec. 2)
This one is all about the fact that Georgia will have recruited better talent and stronger players than St. Louis. Period. It's relative conference strength here again. Georgia will be one of the worst teams in the SEC, but that's still better than being one of the two or three worst teams in the A-10. St. Louis has been kind of textbook up until this point – getting rocked and not covering spreads. They are a young team, fully comprised of sophomores and freshmen, and I think that this is a perfect letdown spot for them after playing in Chicago at a tournament last weekend. On the off chance that they do cover this game (they would have to win outright) I’ll go right back against them versus Southern Illinois on Saturday. This team just isn’t any good.

1-Unit Play. Take #561 Mississippi (-11.5) over Arkansas State (8 p.m., Wednesday, Dec. 2)
Just going to keep going to the well with Ole Miss. Love this team, love the makeup of it, and love the fact that they are still a bit under the radar. Arkansas State is a bit of a mess, and this one is just all about Ole Miss's motivation. If they want to win by 20, they will win by 20. But I don't think this is an upset spot so we'll dabble a bit.

2-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #524 Duquesne (+11.5) over Pitt (7 p.m.) AND Take #543 Boston College (+10) over Michigan (7:30 p.m.)

1.5-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #587 Siena (+10.5) over Georgia Tech (7 p.m.) AND Take #573 Washington State (+16.5) over Gonzaga (9 p.m.)

1.5-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #535 Western Kentucky (+10.5) over South Carolina (7 p.m.) AND Take #582 Ohio State (-1.5) over Florida State (7:30 p.m.)

1.5-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #569 BYU (+6.5) over Utah State (9 p.m., Wednesday, Dec. 2) AND Take #576 New Mexico (Pk) over Cal (9 p.m., Wednesday, Dec. 2)

1-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #582 Ohio State (-1.5) over Florida State (7:30 p.m.) AND Take #561 Mississippi (-6.5) over Arkansas State (8 p.m.)

1-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #543 Boston College (+10) over Michigan (7:30 p.m.) AND Take #538 Clemson (Pk) over Illinois (7 p.m.)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-2-09

LT Profits

CBB

East Carolina +7 -115 (First Half)
Oklahoma State/Tulsa OVER 139.5 -110
BYU/Utah State OVER 137 -105
Utah -1.5 -105

NBA

Knicks +13 -110

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-2-09

Wunderdog

Game: Northern Iowa at Iowa State (8:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: Iowa State -6 (-110)

Northern Iowa had their moment in the dance shortened with an opening round loss to Purdue 61-56. They have the talent to make their way back, but they are no longer under the radar and were tripped up by a lesser Big East force in DePaul. Iowa State may have shown that they can go into the MVC and catch some easy pickings by grabbing a 20-point win over Drake, and are two points from a perfect 6-0 start. The Panthers aren’t having any trouble taking out MVC foes, but stepping out of the conference, they’re just 5-13 ATS in their last 18. The Cyclones are a very profitable 21-10 ATS as a favorite and living large off of non-conference foes at 7-1 ATS in their last eight. I'll take the Cyclones in this one.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-2-09

DOC SPORTS NBA 12/2

2-Unit Play #501 Take New York/Orlando OVER 208 (7 p.m. EST, Wednesday)

3-Unit Play #505 Take Toronto/Atlanta OVER 211 (7 p.m. EST, Wednesday)

3-Unit Play #511 Take Detroit +7 ½ Over Chicago (8 p.m. EST, Wednesday)

2-Unit Play #516 Take Oklahoma City -6 Over Philadelphia (8 p.m. EST, Wednesday)

3-Unit Play #518 Take Sacramento -1 Over Indiana (10 p.m. EST, Wednesday)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-2-09

TEDDY JUNE

10* Boston college
10* Tulsa
10* New Mexico
10* Utah State

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-2-09

John Ryan sports
Handicapper: John Ryan Sports
Sport: NBA Basketball
Game: Indiana Pacers @ Sacramento Kings - Wednesday December 2, 2009 10:05 pm
Pick: 2 units ATS: Indiana Pacers +1.5 (-110)


Ai Simulator 3* graded play on the Pacers as they face the Kings set to start 10:00 EST. AiS shows a 58% probability that the Pacers will win this game. Kings are projected to shoot between 43 and 47% from the field. Pacers are a solid
12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) in road games when their opponents make 43% to 47% of their shots in a game over the last 2 seasons. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 33-11 ATS for 75% victories since 2004. Play against any team after a blowout win by 15 points or more facing an opponent after 2 straight blowout losses by 15 points or more. Take the Pacers.