12-1-09

[Mr. IWS]

NEW GUYS! LURKERS!

Dont be afraid to post services if you come across them. Your posts will be appreciated for sure.

Just put them in the appropriate section (regular or premium)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-1-09

Brandon Lang Tuesday's Selection...
NOTE:
As good as it gets.

To handicap a game like that, a near pickem game, and be absolutely spot-on is what this business is all about.

What my Saints win last night shows you is what I have been saying for the last month now and that is the fact there is nobody around as dialed in as me.

You want to know how dialed in? Well I am glad you asked.

I have released 20 selections the last 4 weeks in the NFL on the website, paid and comp plays.

16-2-2.

My only two losses were getting cute with a 2-team teaser on Monday night between the Ravens and the Browns. Not wanting to lay double digits on the road on Monday night I take the Ravens down and tease the over/under number down and go over.

That is what I get for being quite. Hit the Ravens but missed the total.

My other loss was the Jags on Sunday at San Francisco. I have Jacksonville +3 1/2 and to watch them make 3 trips inside the Niners 15 yard line and get 0 points was as frustraing a thing I had ever seen.

My 2 pushes were the Lions +17 at Minnesota which fell right no the number, and I am still mad about the fact I forgot to tell you to buy the hook.

And the Niners at Green Bay fell on the number 6 and I thought twice about buying the 1/2 in that ball game as well.

You digest those numbers for a moment. This 4 week run has already reached legendary status and although it's no where close to my record of 17 straight super bowls, 16-2-2 isn't exactly chop liver.

Get used to this folks. Get used to it.

I said a month ago I would have the last laugh. Always do. And the bottom line is who is laughing now?

I will tell you who. Me and everyone who stuck with me and everyone who has come back to me.

Hope you enjoyed the Saints last night. More good stuff to come.

10 DIME - GOLDEN STATE-DENVER UNDER - I met George Karl once.

It was years ago while he was head coach of the Milwaukee Bucks, and it was right after they played the Orlando Magic in Orlando.

I went to the game with Ted Tryba and he had played in a pro-am with the head coach so after the game he comes out and meets Ted and I to say hello.

We make small talk at which point I tell him they look sluggish defensively and he says something I still find funny to this day but yet very profound to this day.

"This team couldn't guard their mothers, but a game like this allows me to get their attention."

When you are a Denver team that comes off a devasting loss to Minnesota, a one win team and you lose to them at home, trust me folks, you are not going to allow another team in their home court to outplay them.

A loss like that allows Karl to do just what he said to Tryba and me that day, I can now get their attention and believe me, he will get it.

Denver will clamp down on defense enough to bring the Golden State how power offense to a crawl from what their used to. Compare the fact that 7 of the Nuggets last 8 games have gone Under when they have allowed a 100 points the previous game.

This is a good spot for the Nuggets to refocus with a head coach who chewed some ass and a point guard in Chauncey Billups who will set the tone early.

It's one thing to lose a home game and it's an entirely different thing to lose it the way Denver did last time out.

They will refocus their efforts on defense. Golden State also tends to step off the gas after a straight up win going under 9 of the last 11 next game out.

Watch Denver come out with the defense tonight and put forth a great effort, get the foul taste out of their mouth and keep this one under the total.

FREE SELECTION - PACIFIC TIGERS

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-1-09

Dr. Bob
COLLEGE
3 Star Selection
WESTERN MICHIGAN (+4 1/2) over Temple
01-Dec-09 04:00 PM Pacific Time
Western Michigan went from one of the better teams in the MAC to the lower division and just 10 wins last season, but the Broncos should be back in the top of the MAC this season with better offense and better defensive numbers so far this season. Temple is not going to be as good as they were last season, but the Owls are still a good team - although they're not good enough to be favored by more than a couple of points in this game. My ratings favor Temple by just 2 points using games from this season only and by just 3 1/2 points if I incorporate my pre-season ratings for each team (Western Michigan is more improved than I expected). Along with the line value Western Michigan applies to a very good 105-38-2 ATS early season indicator and a 97-41-2 ATS home underdog situation while Temple applies to a negative 42-106-2 ATS situation that is based on their loss to St. John's in their most recent game. That's pretty strong technical support to go along with the line value and I'll take Western Michigan in a 3-Star Best Bet at +3 points or more and for 2-Stars at +2 1/2 or +2 points.

3 Star Selection
NORTHEASTERN (pick) over Providence
01-Dec-09 04:00 PM Pacific Time
Northeastern returned 4 starters from last year's 19-13 team and the Huskies are playing about as well as I thought they'd play, which is about 1 1/2 points better than last year's team. Providence, meanwhile, is not as good as last year's team, as Friars lost 4 experienced starters and a key reserve from last year's 19-14 squad. I would have favored Northeastern by 1 1/2 points using last year's ratings and Northeastern is improved while Providence is not (they're actually about the same so far). My current ratings favor the Huskies by 3 points and the opening line was 3 points, so we clearly have line value on the side of Northeastern here. In addition to the line value Providence applies to a negative 42-106-2 ATS early season angle. I'll take Northeastern in a 3-Star Best Bet at -2 or less and for 2-Stars at -2 1/2 or -3 points.

3 Star Selection
NC STATE (-5 1/2) over Northwestern
01-Dec-09 04:00 PM Pacific Time
NC State lost their top 3 scorers from last year's team but coach Sidney Lowe insisted that he likes this year's team better and now I know why. This year's team is all guys he recruited and they've bought into his defense first mentality that last year's core did not. Last year's team was worse than average on a national scale defensively, which is really bad for an ACC team, but this year's team ranks in the top 50 on a compensated points per possession allowed basis and they are a better team even if they're not quite as good offensively. With people expecting NC State to be worse there is line value favoring the Wolfpack given that they are actually better than last year's team. Northwestern, meanwhile, is a bit worse than last year's solid team, as losing star Kevin Coble before the season started was a big blow to what was expected to be an improved team. My ratings favor NC State by 7 points in this game and the Wolfpack apply to a 51-15-1 ATS unbeaten home team angle and a 200-95-7 ATS home momentum situation that is based on NC State's good defense. I'll take NC State in a 3-Star Best Bet at -6 or less and for 2-Stars at -6 1/2 or -7.

2 Star Selection
NORTHERN COLORADO (-6 1/2) over Colorado State
01-Dec-09 06:00 PM Pacific Time
Northern Colorado coach Tad Boyle built a solid foundation in his first few seasons as the Bears transitioned into Division 1 basketball and now the Bears are taking the next step and appear to be the class of the Big Sky Conference. Northern Colorado has faced an easy schedule of teams on their way to a 6-0 record, but they're winning those games by an average of 15 points per game and their compensated numbers are much better on the defensive side of the floor this season thanks to improved depth that allows Boyle to play a much more demanding style of defense. The Bears are averaging 10 steals per game an forcing 19 turnovers per game and they are once again one of the top shooting teams in the nation after finishing 8th in the nation in 3-point percentage last season. Colorado State is also an improved team, but my ratings favor Northern Colorado by 7 points and using this year's games only would favor the Bears by 8 1/2 points. The reason for the play is a 51-15-1 ATS subset of a 123-60-3 ATS momentum situation that favors the Bears. I'll take Northern Colorado in a 2-Star Best Bet at -7 points or less.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-1-09

Ben Burns #1 PERSONAL FAVORITE (20-8 L28 NHL)

I'm playing on ANAHEIM. After a terrible October, the Ducks played quite a lot better in November. For the month, they were 6-5-2. They lost their most recent game (vs. Coyotes on Sunday) but still managed to get a point out of it, as that loss came in overtime. Prior to that, they'd won three straight, allowing only four goals in those games. While getting a point was better than getting nothing, the Ducks weren't happy to let Phoenix, a division opponent which is ahead of them in the standings, to get two points. Tonight, the Ducks will face another division opponent, one which is also above them in the standings. While it's only the beginning of December, Anaheim knows that it can't afford to fall further behind, in the extremely competitive Western Conference playoff race. Of the 15 games that the Ducks will play this month, 12 of them will be against teams which they will likely be competing with for potential positioning toward the bottom of the Western Conference playoff race. When considering that 10 of those games will come on the road, tonight's home game takes on even greater importance. The Kings have gotten off to a solid start and they're admittedly an improved team from what we've seen in recent years. They're currently dealing with several key injuries though and they've lost three of their last five games. The Ducks are 9-4 their last 13 meetings with the Kings overall. They've also won six of the last seven meetings here at Anaheim. I expect them to play with a greater sense of urgency tonight and for that to lead to them earning the valuable two points. *7 Personal Favorite

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-1-09

PPP

5* Virginia Tech