11-27-09

[GoBlue]

Norm Hitzges:

Double Play--Auburn +10 vs Alabama
Double Play--Colorado +10.5 vs Nebraska
Buffalo -3 vs Kent State
Wyoming +3 vs Colorado State
Bowling Green - vs Toledo

[GoBlue]

Re: 11-27-09

Doc Sports

5 Unit Play. #28 Take Colorado +10 over Nebraska (Friday 3:30 pm ABC) Top Underdog Play. One might consider this as a bowl game for Colorado since this could be the last game for Coach Hawkins. 1st and Ten. The Buffaloes played well against the Cowboys last Thursday on the road. This is the last home game of the season for the Buffaloes and expect their seniors to go all out.

Nebraska will be looking ahead to Texas next week for the championship game. They have won three straight games, but have been outgained in two of those victories. They will not be up for this game and Colorado wants this game badly. Coach Hawkins enjoys an upset in a low-scoring affair. Colorado 21, Nebraska 17.

4 Unit Play. #18 Take Ohio U +3 over Temple (Friday 11 am ESPN U) The winner of this game will represent the MAC East in Detroit next week and play Central Michigan. Temple has had an unbelievable season thus far and Coach Golden will likely be named the MAC Coach of the Year. The Owls have now played ten straight weeks and this will be a tough game, especially since they are a favorite on the road. Sensational RB Pierce will be out for Temple and that leaves a major void in their offense.

The Bobcats will be looking for revenge after losing 14-10 in 2008. A note on that game: Ohio was playing their third straight road game. 1st and Ten. A lot of seniors play for the Bobcats, especially on defense, and they will end the regular season on a high note. Ohio U 24, Temple 20.

4 Unit Play. #25 Take Nevada +14 over Boise State (Friday 10 pm ESPN 2) What a game this should be and it could go over the posted total by halftime. Boise State is playing as good as anyone in the country. However, they have more talent than most of the teams in the WAC. Their only real tests came early in the season against Oregon and Fresno State.

Nevada started the season 0-3 with their opening loss to Notre Dame carrying over into their next two games. Since then, Nevada has been on a tear, winning eight straight games. The last two meetings between these two teams have been close with the 2007 game going into 4 OTs, with Boise State winning, 69-67. Nevada has lost the last nine games to Boise State straight-up, but this year they have the talent to keep up with them. Getting double digits it too good to pass up and this will be tight throughout and go down to the wire. Boise State 42, Nevada 38.

4 Unit Play. #37 Take Illinois +20 ½ over Cincinnati (Friday 12 pm ABC) Top Big Ten Play. A rare non-conference game featuring BCS teams takes place Friday in Cincinnati. It has been a disappointing year for the Illini to say the least. They brought back a large nucleus and were expected to challenge for a Big Ten title. Despite this poor season, it appears Coach Zook will return next season.

As for the Bearcats, they will enter undefeated and what a great job Coach Kelly has done. Many believe that he is in line for the Notre Dame job. As bad as Illinois has looked at times, the talent is still there. Yet another team with a lot of seniors and a win here would salvage their season. This is a perfect spot to play against Cincinnati since they still have to beat Pittsburgh next week to clinch the Big East. Illinois will either get blown out or take it down to the wire. Pride will allow them to do the latter. Cincy 31, Illinois 21.

Strong Opinion Plays:
#24 Take Auburn +10 over Alabama

[GoBlue]

Re: 11-27-09

Sirduke Sports Date Kick Off Club Rating Rotation Selection Rating
11/27/2009 1:00:00 PM Members 133 No Illinois +13 7*
11/27/2009 2:30:00 PM Members 124 Auburn Tigers +10 7*
11/27/2009 3:30:00 PM Members 130 Colorado Buffaloes+10 7*
11/27/2009 11:00:00 PM Members 122 Ohio U +2.5 7*

[GoBlue]

Re: 11-27-09

Sport: College Basketball
Game: Utah at Illinois-
Date/Time: 11/27/2009 10:30PM EST
Pick: Illinois
Reason: On Friday the free play is on Illinois in college hoops. Game 785 at 10:30 eastern. Illinois has better shooting stats than Utah both offensively and defensively. Illinois is hitting at 52% from the field compared to Utah at 44%. In field goal percentage allowed Illinois is allowing opponents to shoot a solid 37% and Utah is allowing 41%. When takng on Mountain West Conference opponents Illinois has won all three times the past few years. More impressively that are 14-0 straight up covering 11 of 14 times when they are a neutral court favorite from 6.5 to -9. The Utes are just 5-15 as underdogs. Illinois is cut above Utah this time and should get the job done here tonight. In late phone action I have a Huge 96% College Football revenge GOY on the Friday afternoon card as well as a big NBA Blowout game on the night card. These plays lead another solid card. On Thursday we cashed both NFL plays with Denver and Dallas,congrats to those who jumped on.Contact at goldencontender@aol.com to get on board. Today the big run continues with these Cutting Edge system plays. Take Illinois tonight in college hoops. BOL GC

[GoBlue]

Re: 11-27-09

Kelso:
15 units Colorado +10.5
5 units Nevada +13.5

[GoBlue]

Re: 11-27-09

NCAAF
Dunkel




FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 27

Game 111-112: Pittsburgh at West Virginia
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 99.160; West Virginia 95.609
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 3 1/2; 53
Vegas Line: West Virginia by 1; 49
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+1); Over

Game 113-114: Rutgers at Louisville
Dunkel Ratings: Rutgers 90.044; Louisville 83.879
Dunkel Line: Rutgers by 6; 42
Vegas Line: Rutgers by 3; 44
Dunkel Pick: Rutgers (-3); Under

Game 115-116: Eastern Michigan at Akron
Dunkel Ratings: Eastern Michigan 55.968; Akron 75.983
Dunkel Line: Akron by 20; 56
Vegas Line: Akron by 16 1/2; 50
Dunkel Pick: Akron (-16 1/2); Over

Game 117-118: Buffalo at Kent State
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 78.952; Kent State 73.946
Dunkel Line: Buffalo by 5; 52
Vegas Line: Buffalo by 3; 48 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (-3); Over

Game 119-120: Wyoming at Colorado State
Dunkel Ratings: Wyoming 73.866; Colorado State 71.044
Dunkel Line: Wyoming by 3; 45
Vegas Line: Colorado State by 3; 50
Dunkel Pick: Wyoming (+3); Under

Game 121-122: Temple at Ohio
Dunkel Ratings: Temple 83.818; Ohio 83.649
Dunkel Line: Even; 49
Vegas Line: Temple by 3; 46 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Ohio (+3); Over

Game 123-124: Alabama at Auburn
Dunkel Ratings: Alabama 110.637; Auburn 93.491
Dunkel Line: Alabama by 17; 44
Vegas Line: Alabama by 10; 47
Dunkel Pick: Alabama (-10); Under

Game 125-126: Memphis at Tulsa
Dunkel Ratings: Memphis 67.840; Tulsa 89.396
Dunkel Line: Tulsa by 21 1/2; 64
Vegas Line: Tulsa by 16 1/2; 58
Dunkel Pick: Tulsa (-16 1/2); Over

Game 127-128: Illinois at Cincinnati
Dunkel Ratings: Illinois 85.991; Cincinnati 107.622
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 21 1/2; 62
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 20; 57
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-20); Over

Game 129-130: Nebraska at Colorado
Dunkel Ratings: Nebraska 101.123; Colorado 88.858
Dunkel Line: Nebraska by 12 1/2; 35
Vegas Line: Nebraska by 10; 38
Dunkel Pick: Nebraska (-10); Under

Game 131-132: Toledo at Bowling Green
Dunkel Ratings: Toledo 70.536; Bowling Green 80.869
Dunkel Line: Bowling Green by 10 1/2; 67
Vegas Line: Bowling Green by 7 1/2; 64 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Bowling Green (-7 1/2); Over

Game 133-134: Northern Illinois at Central Michigan
Dunkel Ratings: Northern Illinois 80.029; Central Michigan 95.044
Dunkel Line: Central Michigan by 15; 54
Vegas Line: Central Michigan by 13; 50 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Central Michigan (-13); Over

Game 135-136: Nevada at Boise State
Dunkel Ratings: Nevada 92.833; Boise State 109.642
Dunkel Line: Boise State by 17; 82
Vegas Line: Boise State by 14; 71
Dunkel Pick: Boise State (-14); Over

[GoBlue]

Re: 11-27-09

NCAAF
Short Sheet


Week 13

Friday, 11/27/2009

(TC) PITTSBURGH at W VIRGINIA, 7:00 PM ET ESPN2
PITTSBURGH: 6-2 ATS as favorite
W VIRGINIA: 0-6 ATS at home vs. conference

(TC) RUTGERS at LOUISVILLE, 11:00 AM ET ESPN2
RUTGERS: 0-6 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points
LOUISVILLE: 6-0 Under off SU loss

(TC) E MICHIGAN at AKRON, 2:00 PM ET
E MICHIGAN: 2-9 ATS off road loss
AKRON: 10-3 Over in home games

BUFFALO at KENT ST, 2:00 PM ET
BUFFALO: 9-2 ATS in road games
KENT ST: 6-0 Over as a home underdog of 7 points or less

WYOMING at COLORADO ST, 2:00 PM ET MTN
WYOMING: 12-4 Over off conference loss by 21+
COLORADO ST: 0-6 ATS off conference game

(TC) TEMPLE at OHIO U, 11:00 AM ET ESPNU
TEMPLE: 9-0 ATS off home game
OHIO U: 13-2 Over when the line is +3 to -3

ALABAMA at AUBURN, 2:30 PM ET CBS
ALABAMA: 6-0 ATS as road favorite
AUBURN: 5-1 Over in home games

MEMPHIS at TULSA, 3:30 PM ET CBSC
MEMPHIS: 1-8 ATS as an underdog
TULSA: 5-1 Under as favorite

(TC) ILLINOIS at CINCINNATI, 12:00 PM ET ABC
ILLINOIS: 20-36 ATS off home loss
CINCINNATI: 16-6 ATS after a 2 game home stand

NEBRASKA at COLORADO, 3:30 PM ET ABC
NEBRASKA: 9-2 Under this season
COLORADO: 1-8 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points

(TC) TOLEDO at BOWLING GREEN, 2:00 PM ET
TOLEDO: 2-6 ATS off home win
BOWLING GREEN: 10-1 ATS in November

(TC) N ILLINOIS at C MICHIGAN, 1:00 PM ET
N ILLINOIS: 13-4 Under off an Over
C MICHIGAN: 19-6 ATS off an Under

(TC) NEVADA at BOISE ST, 10:00 PM ET ESPN2
NEVADA: 2-8 ATS vs. Boise State
BOISE ST: 8-0 ATS off an Over

[GoBlue]

Re: 11-27-09

NATIONAL SPORTS SERVICE PLAYS 11/27

4* Pittsburgh Pk over W. Virginia (NCAAF)
3* Alabama/Auburn UNDER 47 (NCAAF)
3* Colorado +10.5 over Nebraska (NCAAF)

[GoBlue]

Re: 11-27-09

DON BEST
Louisville Cardinals (CFB)

CAPPERS ACCESS
Louisville
Auburn
W. Virginia
ALL CFB

MAC MONSTER
25 * idaho-3
25 * georgia tech - 8
15 * usm +5.5
15 * ohio u + 2.5
10 * tcu -44.5
10 * ucla + 13
10 * miss st + 7.5
7 * kansas + 3

HARRI BONDI
3* Rutgers (CFB)
3* Colorado (CFB)

[GoBlue]

Re: 11-27-09

WUNDERDOG

Game: Northern Illinois at Central Michigan (Friday 11/27 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: Northern Illinois +13 (-110)

Central Michigan has locked up the MAC West at 7-0 and will be likely playing 7-0 Temple for the MAC Title. The Huskies have had a good year at 7-4, and an eighth win could be enticing to Bowl Committees, especially knocking off a tough Chippewas team. The Chips have an impressive home resume at 4-0 and winning by an average of 37.8 points per game. That has inflated this line, but it is a bit misleading. The Chips played non-FBS Alcorn State and three of the worst MAC teams at home that have combined for a 7-26 record. The Huskies are well versed on the road with no loss larger than 8 points and that includes a pair of trips into the Big-10. The Huskies boast an 8-3 ATS mark in their last 11 as a dog and I think they have some bite. The Huskies are 16-6 ATS in their last 22 as a dog of 10-20 points. They are also 14-4 ATS in their last 18 following back-to-back ATS losses. I like Northern Illinois with the generous points

[GoBlue]

Re: 11-27-09

SPORTS ADVISORS

COLLEGE FOOTBALL

(8) Pittsburgh (9-1, 6-3 ATS) at West Virginia (7-3, 3-6 ATS)

The Panthers head to Morgantown for the 102nd edition of the Backyard Brawl against West Virginia, with Pitt looking to set up a Big East conference title showdown with Cincinnati on Dec. 5.

Pittsburgh sits at 5-0 in Big East play, half a game behind undefeated and fifth-ranked Cincinnati with next weekend’s matchup looming. The Panthers have won six straight overall (4-2 ATS) and come in to this one off their bye week. Back on Nov. 14, they beat Notre Dame 27-22 in Pittsburgh but came up just short as 5½-point favorites.

The Panthers are averaging 35 points a game this season and racking up 465.3 yards per contest over the last three, including 218 ypg on the ground. They are No. 19 in the country for points allowed, giving up just 17.6 points a game, and the defense leads the nation in sacks, totaling 41 to this point in the season.

West Virginia is also coming off its bye, but the Mountaineers dropped two of three (SU and ATS) before the week off. They fell in Cincinnati 24-21 and cashed as 9½-point underdogs on Nov. 13, but they’d failed to cover in four straight prior and six of the previous seven. The Mountaineers struggles have come on defense where they allow 220.7 yards per game through the air and 21.2 points per game.

The Panthers have won the last two in this rivalry, including a stunning 13-9 upset in Morgantown in 2007 as whopping 28½-point underdogs, a result that kept West Virginia from getting a berth in the national championship game. Last year Pitt scored a 19-15 home victory as three-point underdogs.

Pittsburgh is on ATS runs of 6-1 in Big East play, 10-4 on the road, 5-0 after a non-cover and 5-0 on Fridays. Meanwhile, West Virginia is on ATS slides of 0-4 at home, 0-7 at home against teams with winning road marks, 2-7 in Big East games, 2-5 after their bye week and 2-8 against winning teams.

For the Panthers, the “under” is on runs of 5-1 overall, 6-1 in conference play, 9-2 after a non-cover and 4-1 in November contests. The Mountaineers have topped the total in 17 of 24 November contests and eight of 10 coming off a bye week, but they are on “under” runs of 5-2 in Big East action and 4-1 on Fridays. The “under” has been the play in the last two series clashes in five of the last eight.

ATS ADVANTAGE: PITTSBURGH


Temple (9-2, 8-2 ATS) at Ohio (8-3, 7-4 ATS)

The Mid-American Conference’s East Division is up for grabs as Temple travels to Peden Stadium in Athens, Ohio, to take on the Bobcats.

The Owls have a one-game lead in the conference standings over Ohio, with the winner today grabbing the berth in next week’s MAC title game against Central Michigan.

Temple has won nine straight (7-2 ATS) and crushed Kent State 47-13 last week, easily covering as a 10-point home favorite. The Owls got 156 yards rushing from Matt Brown and two touchdowns and returned an interception for a touchdown. They are averaging 45.7 points and 252.3 rushing yards per game in their last three.

Ohio has won three straight (2-1 ATS) and six of seven overall (5-2 ATS), including Saturday’s 38-31 home win over Northern Illinois, cashing as a 1½-point favorite to keep its division title hopes alive. The Bobcats used a punt return and an interception return to put points on the board and QB Theo Scott threw three scoring strikes to take down Northern Illinois.

These teams have split their two all-time meetings the last two years, with Temple scoring a 14-10 win last year, pushing as a four-point favorite, and Ohio getting a 23-7 home victory in 2007, cashing as a nine-point chalk.

Temple is on a plethora of ATS streaks, including 20-8-1 overall, 19-7-1 in MAC contests, 5-0 on the road, 5-1 on Fridays, 4-1 as a road favorite and 6-2 as a favorite. Ohio hasn’t been bad at the betting window wither, currently riding ATS runs of 7-2 overall, 7-2 in conference play, 5-0 on Fridays, 6-2 against winning teams and 4-1 as an underdog.

The Owls are on “over” streaks of 5-2 on the road, 6-0 overall, 4-0 as a favorite, 6-1 in November games and 4-0 after a spread-cover. Meanwhile, the Bobcats have stayed under the posted number in four of five at home, but topped the total in four of five as ‘dogs and four straight in November action.

ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER


(2) Alabama (11-0, 7-3 ATS) at Auburn (7-4, 5-6 ATS)

The Crimson Tide roll into Jordan Hare Stadium to take on Auburn in the annual Iron Bowl, with Alabama trying to stay focused on the Tigers before next weekend’s SEC Championship Game against top-ranked Florida.

Alabama fields the most dominant defense in the country, allowing just 9.9 points, 225.2 total yards and 70.5 rushing yards per game (all good for second-best in the country) and 154.6 passing ypg (No. 5 in the country). The Crimson Tide tuned up for this game with a 45-0 rout of Division I-AA Chattanooga on Saturday in a non-lined game.

The Alabama offense is led by Heisman Trophy candidate Mark Ingram, who has rushed for 1,399 yards and 12 TDs and caught 25 passes for 225 yards and three scores. The sophomore has topped the 100-yard rushing mark in each of his last three games, averaging 9.3 yards a carry and scoring twice against Chattanooga on Saturday.

Auburn has lost four of its last six contests (1-5 ATS) but had last weekend off to get ready for this one. In their most recent contest, the Tigers went to Georgia and fell 31-24 on Nov. 14, coming up short as a four-point underdog. Auburn’s defense has been getting torched for 27 points and 359.2 yards per outing this season. Offensively, the Tigers have been especially dominant at home, amassing 496.6 total ypg and 246 rushing ypg.

The Crimson Tide snapped a six-game Iron Bowl losing streak (2-4 ATS) last year with a 36-0 drubbing at home, easily cashing as a 14½-point favorite. The straight-up winner in this rivalry has gotten the cash in eight of the last 10 meetings. Alabama is 5-2 ATS in its last seven trips to Auburn, but the home team is on a 4-1 ATS roll in this series, with the favorite a perfect 4-0 ATS the last four years.

It’s been all positives at the betting window lately for Alabama, including runs of 9-3 against SEC teams, 8-1 on the road, 6-1 in November, 12-5 as a favorite, 6-0 as a road favorite and 11-5 after a straight-up win. The Tigers are 4-1 ATS in their last five as a home ‘dog, but otherwise they’re on negative pointspread trends of 1-5 overall, 2-10 after a non-cover, 1-4 in SEC action, 1-4 in November and 1-7 after a straight-up loss.

Alabama is on several “under” streaks, including 8-2 in November, 8-2 in SEC contests, 5-1 overall, 5-1 as a favorite and 34-11-1 when favored by 10½ points or more. Auburn has topped the total in six of seven at home, and seven of 11 overall, but it is also on “under” runs of 16-7-1 in SEC action, 7-3 as a home ‘dog and 4-1-1 in November. Finally, the “under” is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings between these two rivals.

ATS ADVANTAGE: ALABAMA and UNDER


Illinois (3-7 SU and ATS) at (5) Cincinnati (10-0, 6-4 ATS)

With a showdown for the Big East conference championship looming next week at Pittburgh, the home-standing Bearcats will try to avoid a letdown and dispose of struggling Illinois in a non-conference matchup at Nippert Stadium.

Despite its perfect record, Cincinnati comes into today only a half-game ahead of Pitt in the Big East standings. The Bearcats will travel to Pittsburgh on Dec. 5 in the much-anticipated battle for the league crown and automatic BCS Bowl berth.

Cincinnati’s Tony Pike will return to the starting QB spot today for the first time since Oct. 15. Before suffering an injury to his non-throwing forearm, Pike threw for 1,633 yards and 15 touchdowns with just three interceptions in six games, and he leads an offense that’s ranked sixth nationally in scoring at 38.4 points per game. The Bearcats are also in the top 10 in passing offense, but they can also run the ball, as sophomore RB Isaiah Pead showed two weeks ago when he racked up 175 yards rushing on 18 carries in a 24-21 home win over West Virginia, failing to cover as 9½-point favorites.

Illinois dropped six of its first seven games – with the one win coming against Division I-AA Illinois State – but the Illini have since won two of their last three, with conference victories against Michigan (38-13 as a seven-point home underdog) and Minnesota (35-32 as a 6½-point road pup). QB Juice Williams has had a miserable senior season for Illinois, throwing for just 1,139 yards with six TDs and five INTs. Illinois has scored 17 points or less in seven of its last nine outings, including a 21-16 home loss to Northwestern as a six-point favorite on Nov. 14.

This is the first-even meeting between these two schools.

The Illini have cashed in four of their last five games as road ‘dogs, but otherwise they are on ATS slides of 3-10 overall, 2-5 on the road, 11-27 after a non-cover, 1-4 in November and 1-10 in non-conference action. Cincinnati is 3-1-1 ATS after a bye week, but on ATS skids of 1-4 in non-conference games, 2-5 as a home favorite and 1-5 at home against teams with losing road records.

Illinois has topped the total in seven of nine as a road ‘dog, but it is on “under” streaks of 5-1 overall, 5-1-1 after a non-cover and 13-6 on the road against teams with a winning home record. The Bearcats have gone “over” the posted number in 10 of their last 14 November games and five straight after a bye week, but they are on “under” runs of 6-2 overall, 4-1 in Big Ten games, 6-0 at home against teams with a losing road record and 4-0 in non-conference action.

ATS ADVANTAGE: CINCINNATI and UNDER


Nevada (8-3, 6-5 ATS) at (6) Boise State (11-0, 8-3 ATS)

The top two teams in the Western Athletic Conference square off on the “Smurf Turf” at Bronco Stadium, as red-hot Nevada takes on unbeaten Boise State in the most anticipated conference game of the season.

Nevada leads the WAC at 7-0, a half-game ahead of Boise State as the Broncos have one league contest remaining next week at lowly New Mexico State. The Broncos are looking for not only a WAC title but also an at-large berth in a BCS bowl game.

The Wolf Pack have college football’s No. 1 rushing offense (373.8 yards per game) and second-ranked overall offense (534.8 total yards per contest). Nevada, winners of eight straight (6-2 ATS), averages 41.3 points a game on the season, including 55.6 ppg over the last five. The Wolf Pack have scored 52 or more points in each of their last three games (3-0 ATS) while the defense has held the opposition to 20 points or less in those three.

Nevada went to New Mexico State on Saturday and scored a 63-20 win as 30½-point favorites. The Wolf Pack rushed for 581 yards in the win with three players topping the 100-yard mark in Luke Lippincott (19 carries for 162 yards), Vai Taua (13 carries for 126 yards) and QB Colin Kaepernick (nine carries for 114 yards). All three of those players have more than 1,000 rushing yards on the season, an NCAA record for one team..

Boise State, winners of 56 straight on its crazy home field, is looking for a least a share of its sixth WAC title in the last eight years. The Broncos lead the nation at 44.4 points per game and are in the Top 10 in total offense (456 ypg), thanks to QB Kellen Moore, who is second in the nation with 33 touchdown passes against just three interceptions. A week ago tonight, Moore’s offense rushed for a season-high 323 yards in a 52-21 win over Utah State, with the Broncos cashing as a 22-point favorite. Doug Martin had a team-high 121 rushing yards and four touchdowns on just 13 carries while Jeremy Avery added two more scores on the ground.

Boise State has a nine-game winning streak (8-1 ATS) against Nevada, including last year’s 41-34 win in Reno, narrowly cashing as a 6½-point favorite. However, last time these two met in Boise, it was a four-overtime thriller that the Broncos ended up winning 69-67, but they came nowhere near covering the 25-point line. In this rivalry, the favorite is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings, while the road team has cashed in four of the last five.

Nevada is on ATS runs of 4-1 overall, 5-2 in November and 4-1 after a straight-up win, but it is on ATS skids of 2-5 on the road, 1-6 as an underdog, 0-5 on the road against teams with winning home records and 6-13 as a road ‘dog. Boise State is on a plethora of positive ATS trends, including 20-8-1 overall, 44-18-2 at home, 18-7-1 as a favorite, 31-10-2 in November, 7-1 in WAC games and 4-1 on Fridays.

The Wolf Pack have stayed “under” the total in four straight Friday outings, but they’re otherwise on “over” streaks of 7-3 versus WAC teams, 5-2 on the road, 5-1 in November and 9-3 following a straight-up win. The Broncos are on “under” runs of 5-1 at home and 4-1 as a home favorite, but they have topped the total in four of five overall, seven of eight within the WAC and five straight on Friday. Finally, these two have easily gone “over” the number in the last two series clashes.

ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER


NBA

San Antonio (7-6 SU and ATS) at Houston (8-7, 9-6 ATS)

The Spurs take their three-game winning streak to the Toyota Center to take on the instate and Southwest Division rival Rockets.

San Antonio has discovered its offense lately, scoring 106 points or more in each of the last three, including Wednesday’s 118-104 home win over the Warriors, barely covering the 13½-point line. In fact, after hitting triple digits just three times in the first 10 games, the Spurs are averaging 112 points per contest in the last three. Tony Parker led the surge on Wednesday with 32 points and seven assists.

Houston is coming off Wednesday’s ugly 130-99 loss to the Mavericks as four-point home favorites. The Rockets have alternated wins and losses in their last 10 games (5-5 ATS) and will be wrapping up a three-game homestand with this one. The defense has abandoned Houston lately, allowing 104.3 points a game and 49 percent shooting from the floor in the last five games.

This is the first meeting between these rivals this season after the two split last year’s four games (SU and ATS) with each winning once at home and once on the road. The underdog holds a 9-4 ATS edge in the last 13 series clashes.

The Spurs have cashed in five straight after getting a day off, but they are on ATS slides of 0-6 on the road, 0-5 as road ‘dogs, 1-5 as an underdog, 3-9 after a spread-cover, 3-8 against Southwest Division teams and 4-10 after a straight-up win. Houston is just 1-4 ATS in its last five as a favorite, but it is on positive pointspread streaks of 6-1 after a day off, 39-19 after a straight-up loss and 37-16 after a non-cover.

San Antonio is on “over” streaks of 9-3-1 after a day off and 4-1 after a spread-cover, but they are on “under” stretches of 6-2 on the road, 20-6 against opponents with winning records and 4-1-1 as an underdog. Meanwhile, Houston is on “under” streaks of 7-3 as a home favorite, 20-8 following a non-cover and 8-2 against Southwest Division squads, but it is on “over” runs of 10-4 overall and 5-2 at home. In this rivalry, the under has been the play in 23 of 29 meetings, including five of six in Houston.

ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE

[GoBlue]

Re: 11-27-09

CKO

11 *BOWLING GREEN over Toledo
Late Score Forecast: *BOWLING GREEN 41 - Toledo 20

There’s little love lost between these two rivals, but Bowling Green still holds most of the cards that have led to convincing Falcon wins in 2007 and 2008. BG QB Tyler Sheehan (4th in the nation in total offense) threw for 3 TDs in each of the last two meetings with the Rockets. Sr. WR Freddie Barnes (10 catches and a score in his career vs. Toledo) is leading the country in receptions and he’s averaged 173 ypg receiving in the last six games. Jr. RB Willie Geter ran for 160 yards on 12 carries (13.3 ypc) against the Rockets last season. Conversely, Toledo sr. QB Aaron Opelt completed just 11 of 26 passes for just 100 yds. with 0 TDs and 2 ints. in his two games against BG. The sore- shouldered Opelt, recently returned from injury, might be replaced in the starting lineup by true frosh Austin Dantin. The Rocket defense hasn’t put up much of a fight all season (38 ppg; 418 ypg).

NINE-RATED GAMES: CINCINNATI (-18) vs. Illinois (Friday)——Last week off gave the wrist of passer Tony Pike time to heal and the Bearcats’ speed- oriented defense time to rest; must note Cincy’s big game at Pitt next week, however...

[GoBlue]

Re: 11-27-09

LOGICAL APPROACH

WEST VIRGINIA + 2 over Pittsburgh
LOUISVILLE + 4 ½ over Rutgers
KENT STATE + 3 over Buffalo
TULSA - 16 over Memphis
Illinois + 20 over CINCINNATI
BOWLING GREEN - 7 ½ over Toledo
CENTRAL MICHIGAN - 13 over No. Illinois

[GoBlue]

Re: 11-27-09

NELLYS GREENSHEET


COLLEGE KEY SELECTIONS

RATING 3 BOWLING GREEN (-7½) over Toledo
RATING 2 ILLINOIS (+18) over Cincinnati



CINCINNATI (-18) Illinois 11:00 AM
There is a lot on the line for the Bearcats and even though TCU appears to be ahead for the
moment for the potential next in line spot behind the SEC champion and Texas. Cincinnati’s
strength of schedule will be improving the next two weeks while TCU faces one of the worst
teams in FBS this week. Illinois has had a very disappointing season but the Illini have shown
some life of late, covering in three of the final four games and beating Michigan and
Minnesota. Illinois could be a dangerous underdog in this game because they are the far
better rushing team, averaging over 190 yards per game on the ground. Cincinnati’s offense
has been outstanding but the defense has been fairly average and the schedule has been
tougher for Illinois. Illinois has covered in eight of the last ten games as double-digit
underdogs while Cincinnati certainly may be looking past a 3-8 Illinois team considering how
big the game next week against Pittsburgh will be. Cincinnati has failed to cover in close calls
the last two games at home and this looks like a team that has passed its value apex while
Illinois has had two weeks to prepare for a season-making performance. Cincinnati is just 1-3
ATS at home this season and the Bearcats could have a tough transition working with two
QBs as original starter Tony Pike is certainly ready for full-time action. CINCINNATI BY 10




BOWLING GREEN (-7½) Toledo 1:00 PM
A win here would give Bowling Green a shot a making a bowl game getting to 7-5 as the
Falcons are riding a three-game win streak entering this home finale. Bowling Green has not
been a reliable home team in past years but they have two wins and covers at home this
season and three home losses came to teams that have combined to go 28-5. Toledo can get
to .500 with a win here but it is unlikely that the Rockets could find a call to a bowl game.
Toledo does have three outright wins as underdogs this season but the Rockets are also 8-20
ATS on the road since ’05. Last season Bowling Green out-gained Toledo by over 300 yards
in a 38-10 win and despite seeming like a rebuilding year, the Falcons have not fallen that far
this season. Toledo starter Aaron Opelt got very limited action last week and his status is
questionable this week while Bowling Green QB Tyler Sheehan quietly has delivered an
impressive season, completing over 64 percent with 21 TDs. BOWLING GREEN BY 14

[GoBlue]

Re: 11-27-09

MARC LAWRENCE PLAYBOOK


4* BEST BET

AUBURN over Alabama by 3

Marc’s SEE YA LATER, ALLIGATOR article on Page 2 tells us all we
need to know about this SEC bloodbath. As always, though, we have
plenty more ammo where that came from. For starters, since 1980 these
two have hooked up eight times at Jordan-Hare Stadium and the hosts
have come away with wins in six of them, including the last three in a
row. Before this season, the Tide have been favored only once at this
venue – a meager 3.5-point choice back in 1999 and now are being
asked to lay doubles. And speaking of doubles, the Tigers have made
their mark as double-digit conference dogs, producing a strong 4-1 ATS
record. They’ve also delivered the cash in three of their four weekday
home games. We know all about ‘Bama’s 36-0 thrashing of the Tigers
last season as it forced the so-called ‘voluntary’ resignation of longtime
HC Tommy Tuberville. Aubbie’s 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS effort off a shutout
loss since 1977 says payback is in order. Here’s one more thought for the
‘Nicktator’ to ponder: the Tigers are 15-4 SU and ATS versus undefeated
SEC opposition. The Tide’s last win in Auburn? We don’t need Bill Haley
and his Comets to tell us it’s been a while, crocodile. Their 2-5 ATS log in
‘Last Road Games’ says it’ll be a bit longer. It’s a take.