11-15-09

[Mr. IWS]

NEW GUYS! LURKERS!

Dont be afraid to post services if you come across them. Your posts will be appreciated for sure.

Just put them in the appropriate section (regular or premium)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-15-09

Larry Ness' 26* (2ND TY!) is NY Jets - 7

Reason: The Jags and Jets are both 4-4. They both run the ball well and neither team is sure what to expect from their respective QBs. Jones-Drew has 737 yards rushing (5.1 YPC) and a league-high 11 TDs, despite rushing for only 48 yards in Weeks 4 and 5. While he's impressive, he'll face a Jets rush D which is solid, allowing 108.1 YPG (4.0 YPC). While€ Jones-Drew is a 'force,' the Jets own the NFL's top rushing offense, averaging 177.6 YPG (4.8 YPC), which is almost 40 YPG more than the Jags rush for. Also, Jones and now Greene (with Washington out) will run against a Jacksonville rush D which has allowed 119.8 YPG (4.3) but more importantly, was "blown away" in its last two road games (more on that later). Getting to the pass defenses, the Jags are awful defending the pass, allowing 68.6 percent completions 15 TDs and have just five INTs (100.2 opposing QB rating is third-worst in the NFL). Jax head coach Jack Del Rio switched to a 4-3 defense against the Chiefs after the 3-4 proved to be ineffective (an MAJOR understaement). The unit, which was called "insulting, ugly and embarrassing" by Del Rio after a 30-13 loss at Tennessee on November 1, turned in its best performance of the season against Kansas City, allowing 301 yards (only 60 on the ground) while recording three sacks. Bottom line is this, Jacksonville's eight sacks are the fewest in the NFL and I'll get to this defense's performance in its last two road games, shortly. As for the Jets, they are allowing only 54.1 percent completions (2nd-best in the league) and 165 YPG (also No. 2) with only five TDs and seven INTs. Let's look at Sanchez, who had a 4-1 ratio and became the first QB to ever win his first three starts. He had awful games vs the Saints (138 yards and three INTs) and Bills (119 yards and five INTs) but has bounced back with two solid efforts, since. He was a modest 9-of-16 with 143 yards (one TD / 0 INTs) in New York's 38-0 win pover the Raiders and then 20-of-35 for 265 yards (2 TDs / 0 INTs) in that Week 8 loss to Miami (107.0 QB rating vs Oak and 100.3 vs Mia). Garrard has just six TD passes all season (three vs Tenn in Week 4) and five INTs but in his last four games, has one TD pass and four INTs. Let's look at those last four games. The Jags have lost 41-0 at Seattle and 30-13 at Tennessee, while beating the Rams 23-20 in OT and the Chiefs 24-21 (both at home). The Rams and Chiefs are both 1-7, so should we make a big deal out of three-point wins? Seattle and Tennessee are a combined 5-11 and look what the Jax D allowed. Hasselbeck and Young completed 33-of-48 passes (68.8%), while the Seahawks and Titans ran for 448 yards (5.0 YPC). Think the Jets No. 1 rushing attack will like what they see on film? Why can't Sanchez, with Cotchery finally healthy and Edwards seemingly happy (he's talking about staying with the Jets), do to the Jags' pass D what Hasslebeck and Young did? Go back again and take a close look at the Jags' last four games. Two, three-point wins over the Rams and Chiefs (at home!) plus just AWFUL efforts at Seattle and Tennessee. The last time we saw the Jets, they outgained the Dolphins 378-to-104 in yards but lost 30-25 because Ginn returned kicks of 100 and 101 for TDs while Taylor returned a fumble 48 yards for another. The Jets got last week off and a quick look at the NFL record book shows that the Jets are 7-2 SU and ATS off their bye week this decade. Both teams may be 4-4 but there is MUCH more than a TD difference between these two teams this Sunday.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-15-09

B LANG

30 DIME - SAN DIEGO CHARGERS - If you can't beat the Raiders in Oakland then for my dollar you are not beating the Chargers in San Diego.

You can slowly see the implosion of the Eagles happening right before your very eyes. Every year they do it, and two people are responsible.

Andy Reid and Donovan McNabb.

First of all, the Eagles are off 3 divisional games in a row versus the Redskins, Giants and Cowboys. Now they travel west off those games and a loss last week at home to Dallas.

Next, for the Eagles to win McNabb has to outplay Philip Rivers and folks, as I see it that is not happening today.

I had the Chargers as the 25 dime winner last Sunday and they led the Giants in New York the whole way until a big turnover in the 4th quarter by Rivers gave the Giants the lead only to watch Rivers work the 2 minute drill to perfection and deliver the win.

I feel the Chargers are improving every week and winning the AFC West is not out of the question based on the current struggles of the Denver Broncos.

To put it bluntly, I don't trust McNabb or Andy Reid at all in this situation. Not one bit, especially after their implosion at Oakland. To lose to the Raiders 13-9 just goes to show you how bad this Eagles team can be.

This line opened up Chargers -2 and as of Saturday night it had moved down to a pick'em. That is fine with me. Let these people bet the Eagles here. Not me.

15 DIME - NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS - (if line is 3 you buy the 1/2 and get 3 1/2, if line is 2 1/2 you buy the 1/2 and get 3.) - Colts are going down.

Probably going to be some line moves on this game as the day progresses,so if it's moves down to 2 nothing I can do about that. If it's 2 1/2 you buy to +3 and if it's 3 you buy the 1/2 to 3 1/2.

Now, watching the Bears-Niners game on Thursday night I was just flabbergasted at how bad the Niners looked. Even with Jay Cutler giving them 5 interceptions, they still looked like a team stuck in the mud.

I am talking about a Niners team that 3 weeks ago went into Indy and gave the Colts all they could handle, and what is even more amazing about the Colts struggle in that game was the fact they were coming off a bye week.

Then last week the Colts struggled all day long to put away a Texans team, and if not for a missed 42 yarder at the end of regulation by Houston to force OT, Indy might very well have lost that game.

The bottom line is this; you start getting into the 7th or 8th week of the season you are not supposed to be struggling with the Niners and Texans of the league, you are supposed to be putting people away.

Colts just aren't doing that and against a team like New England, it will come back to haunt you and I believe it will haunt Indy today.

I love what the Patriots are doing right now having won their last 3 games by double-digits and granted, it was over Tennessee 59-0, Tampa Bay 35-7, and Miami 27-17 but truth be told, I don't see them struggling to put these teams away like Indy is.

Eventually these injuries Indy has on defense is going to catch up to you. You can't be down to your 5th and 6th string DB's and not have a guy like Tom Brady pick you apart and rest assured folks, Alex Smith and Matt Schaub are not to be mistaken for Tom Brady.

This game tonight comes down to match ups across the board and those matchups favor the Patriots. Simple as that.

In their 7 meetings head to head, Tom Brady is 5-2 versus Peyton Manning and believe me, it's as personal as it gets here folks. Very personal.

Lastly, I really want you to examine who the Colts have beaten. Jags to open the year, and the Dolphins on Monday night in a game they never should have won. Arizona, Seattle, Tennessee, Rams, Niners and Houston.

There are no Bill Belichick and Tom Brady tandems in there. At least not the way I see it.

Two teams heading in opposite directions right now, with the Patriots playing great ball and with all their injuries, the Colts are struggling and meeting the wrong team at the wrong time.

10 DIME - DETROIT LIONS - They fight hard, I will give them that much, and I expect them to fight here.

In the first meeting between these two the Lions led most of the first half before a late Vikings touchdown made it 10-7.

Lions were driving first drive of the 3rd quarter when running back Smith fumbled and it then opened up the flood gates.

Detroit actually matches up really well with the Vikings, and have played them tough the last 2 years. Catching this many points is just to much wood for the Vikings to cover.

Lastly, as a favorite of 14 points of more in his career, Brett Farve is 1-14-1 ATS. Only 1 cover my friends and in my mind, no way he gets number 2 today.

FREE SELECTION - KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-15-09

WAYNE ROOT

2009 Football Upset Club

Sunday, November 15, 2009

6*Panthers (+1½) over Falcons
1:00 PM -- Bank of America Stadium

4*Redskins (+3½) over Broncos
1:00 PM -- FedEx Field

[wayneschultz]

Re: 11-15-09

any luck with roots full card and/or his no limit nfc game of the month selection?

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-15-09

Root:
15* Packers
10* Bills
6* Panthers
4* Redskins

[YoungTRK484]

Re: 11-15-09

No mea culpa from Lang on the Duke pick yesterday?? LOL.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-15-09

Root NFC GOM - Along with Write Up

15* Packers

DALLAS VS. GREEN BAY: Four games into the season, the Dallas Cowboys were sitting at .500 and facing intense scrutiny for failing to play up to expectations. They’ve turned it all around since, winning four straight. Now they’ll face a Green Bay Packers team that’s stuck in a similar spot and looking for the same type of dramatic turnaround. WAR says the turn-a-round will start with this game today!! The Packers (4-4) certainly thought they were good enough, emerging from the preseason with a surge of momentum and high expectations. The Packers would now need a remarkable collapse by the Vikings to get back in the NFC North race, so they’re likely looking at a wild-card berth as their best-case scenario. Rodgers and the players know the heat has been turned up and are prepared to do what is necessary to rectify the situation. To do that, they’ll have to solve familiar problems: Green Bay has allowed a league-worst 37 sacks and has committed too many penalties, often burying an otherwise-productive offense in down-and-distance holes it can’t dig out of. McCarthy joked this week that perhaps the Packers should adopt the ultimate max-protect tactic: keep even the wide receivers in to block. Facing a streaking Dallas team might not be the ideal time for the Packers to fix everything that ails them, but they don’t have a choice. WAR likes the storybook history of the Packers and the home field for this Sundays "must-win" game. Look for the offensive line to dig into the trenches and protect their QB so he can do his job. That's a tall order but with this weeks extra motivation it can be done. This is WAR's NFC Game of the Month. Take the Packers.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-15-09

Wayne Root: Vegas Legend Play

San Diego -1

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-15-09

Larry Ness' 20* Revenge Game of the Month-NFL (25-14 CFB/NFL run since Oct 21)
My 20* Revenge Game of the Month is on the Car panthers at 1:00 ET. The Falcons and Panthers meet for the second time this year on Sunday. Atlanta won 28-20 at home in Week 2 as Matt Ryan threw three TD passes. Ryan got off to a quick start this season following a superb rookie season, but has come under some recent criticism. Jake Delhomme of Carolina knows that feeling all too well. He had the AWFUL game vs the Cardinals in last year's divisional round of the playoffs and then threw seven INTs as the Panthers opened 0-3 in 2009. It's hard to say he's really improved lately but it is encouraging for Carolina fans that he hasn't thrown an INT in his last two games (1-1 SU and 2-0 ATS). Getting back to Ryan, he's been sacked eight times in his last three games and has been intercepted five times in his last two road starts. Atlanta has to be happy that RB Michael Turner has run fro 317 yards the last two weeks (8.3 YPC with three TDs), as he had averaged just 67.2 YPG in Atlanta's first six games. However, Atlanta must be somewhat concerned with its 'D,' which has allowed 36.0 PPG and 425.5 YPG in its last two road games. It should be mentioned that the team's last two road opponents were the red-hot Cowboys (winners of four straight) and the Saints (one of two, 8-0 teams). That being said, Delhomme had arguably his best game of the 2009 season in that Week 2 meeting in Atlanta, passing for 308 yards (25-of-41). The Falcons have to be very concerned with stopping Carolina's DeAngelo Williams (Atlanta ranks 24th against the run), who has rushed for 152, 89, 158 and 149 yards his last four games (137 YPG / 6.1 YPC). His ankle is not 100 percent but he was upgraded to proble on the Saturday "injury report," which is BAD NEWS for the Falcons. The Panthers were more than just a little competitive in their Week 2 game in Atlanta, as they rushed for 144 yards, out-gained the Falcons 440-to-371 overall and were actually threatening late. Let's not forget that this Carolina team was 12-4 just last year, including a perfect 8-0 here at home. The Panthers play FIVE of their last eight games at home in 2009 and a second-halt turnaround is NOT out of the question. Revenge works in the NFL when the matchups are right and they are here. Revenge Game of the Month 20* Car Panthers.

Good Luck...Larry

Larry Ness' MASSIVE MISMATCH-NFL (won L5 NFL weeks!)
My 15* MASSIVE MISMATCH is on the Mia Dolphins at 1:00 ET. Eli Manning and Philip Rivers will always be linked through the 2004 draft and last Sunday, those two high-profile QBs met at Giants Stadium, with Rivers leading a last minute TD drive to lead the Chargers to a 21-20 win over the Giants. There's another reunion, although not as publicized, this weekend when the Bucs travel cross-state to take on the Dolphins. Cadillac Williams and Ronnie Brown combined for 2,164 rushing yards in 2004, leading the Auburn Tigers to a 13-0 record. In retrospect, it turns out the Miami Dolphins got the right RB when they drafted Brown, leaving Williams for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Brown is the "main guy" these days in a Miami running game which averages 150.9 YPG (4.5 YPC), 4th-best in the NFL. As for Williams, he ran for 1,178 yards as a rookie in 2005 but the last two seasons (2007 and 2008) has fought injuries, playing in just 10 games while gaining just 441 yards. He's Tampa's leading rusher in 2009 with 366 yards (4.0 YPC), which shows the state of Tampa's running game (95.9 YPG). Tampa is off a 'high,' getting their first win of 2009 (0-7 start) last week vs Green Bay, ending a two-year, 11-game losing streak. Rookie QB Josh Freeman made his first start in that game and while he threw three TDs, he completed a modest 14-of-31 for only 205 yards. The Bucs totaled only 279 yards in the game (25-for-81 yards rushing) and won by scoring the game's final 21 points in the final 11-plus minutes of the game (final score came on an INT return with 35 seconds left / also returned a blocked punt for a TD in the 2Q). Point is, the Bucs were hardly dominant allowing 404 yards to the Packers, who were coming off a tough loss to the Vikings (second time this year) and with a home game with the Cowboys on deck. The Dolphins are just 3-5 (won AFC East at 11-5 last year) but they are better than their record. They own an outstanding running game with both Brown (566 YR / 4.2 YPC / 7 TDs) and Williams (456 YR / 5.4 YPC / 6 TDs) contributing plus there is that infamous "wildcat" formation to deal with. QB Henne hasn't kept up his fast start (won first two NFL starts, completing 70.8% with 3 TDs and 0 INTs) but note that Miami's two losses in their last three games have been to the Saints (8-0) and Pats (6-2). Henne's completed just 53.8% the last three games (1 TD / 2 INTs). However, the Dolphins have been VERY impressive at home, averaging 31.5 PPG in four games while rushing for 194.3 YPG (4.9 YPC). Yes, they are just 2-2 in those games, but the losses have come to the Colts and Saints (both 8-0). Here, they'll face a Tampa 'D' which has allowed 28.9 PPG (29th) and a rush 'D' that's allowed 163.4 YPG (4.8 YPC), ranking 30th. Freeman will be making just his second NFL start (FIRST on the road!) and of course, head coach Raheem Morris is the league's youngest head coach, coming off his first-ever win. This is a GREAT spot for the Dolphins. NFL MASSIVE MISMATCH 15* Mia Dolphins.

Good Luck...larry

Larry Ness' Oddsmaker's Error-NFL (75% run L5 weeks)
My Oddsmaker's Error is on the GB Packers at 4:15 ET. The Cowboys 'limped' out of Denver in Week 4 at 2-2, after losing 17-10. The Cowboys took a 10-0 in that game against the Broncos but then never scored again. Romo threw 42 passes without a TD and with the Giants off to a 4-0 start, Dallas looked to be in BIG TROUBLE! Dallas "got back on track" with a 26-20 OT win at KC in Week 5. but it was hardly an impressive performance. However, Romo did throw two TDs without an INT and WR Austin Miles had his "coming out" performance, catching 10 passes for a Dallas single-game record 250 yards with two TDs, including the game-winner in OT. Dallas had a bye in Week 6 and has returned to win three straight and their four-game winning streak has them at 6-2, one game ahead of the 5-3 Eagles and 1 1/2-games up on the 5-4 Giants, who have lsuddenly lost FOUR straight. Dallas has averaged 27.8 PPG in its four-game winning streak with Romo completing 62.4% for 306.3 YPG (8 TDs and just 1 INT). The running game is sound (138.6 YPG) with three RDs contributing. Barber has 447 yards (4.6 YPC), Jones 298 yards (7.3 YPC) and Choice 249 yards (4.9 YPC). "America's Team" is back, or so everyone thinks. The Packers on the other hand, look "dead in the water." They are coming off back-to-back losses, a 38-26 loss to the Vikings in Week 8 (2nd loss this year to Favre and the Vikes) and an embarrassing loss last week at Tampa Bay. Green Bay took a 28-17 lead into the 4th quarter last Sunday (despite allowing a blocked punt TD) and then FOLDED, allowing the winless Bucs, who had lost 11 straight games, to score the game's final 21 points! Are the Packers really 'dead?' Truth is, we'll find out here. Green Bay has already all but handed the NFC North title to the Vikings, who own a three-game and have won BOTH meetings with the Packers this season. However, at 4-4, the Packers are still 'alive' for a wild card berth. However, they almost MUST win here! I'd go as far to say that Mike McCarthy (head coach) and Ted Thompson (GM) almost HAVE to win this game. Why can't the Packers win? Rodgers is completing 63.1%, averaging 281.9 YPG with 16 TDs and just 5 INTs (103.3 QB rating). The issue of course, is those 37 sacks (most in the NFL). One must note that the Dallas 'D' has 14 sacks in its four-game winning streak but the team's pass 'D' is very vulnerable, allowing 234 YPG, 59.9% completions with just six INTs (has allowed 13 TDs). In comparison, Romo will face a Green Bay pass 'D' which allows just 54.0% completions (No. 1 in the NFL), and 186 YPG. Dallas 'fever' is running high these days and it's reflected in this line. Note that in Week 8 the 6-1 Vikings came to Lambeau Field and were three-point underdogs. Here, the 6-2 Cowboys are the three-point favorites! Oddsmaker's Error 15* GB Packers.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-15-09

Gavazzi--4*-Jets--Carolina--3*Tenn--Pitt over--Philly

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-15-09

Roots full card

Vegas Legend--Colts
Millionaire--Redskins
Billionaire--Panthers
No Limit GOM--Packers
Perfect Play--Bills
Favorite of the week--Chargers