11-11-09

[Mr. IWS]

NEW GUYS! LURKERS!

Dont be afraid to post services if you come across them. Your posts will be appreciated for sure.

Just put them in the appropriate section (regular or premium)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-11-09

Ben Burns 11/11

Ben Burns 7* Blue Chip

OVER 207,TORONTO RAPTORS -vs-Chicago Bulls

Game: Chicago Bulls vs. Toronto Raptors Game Time: 11/11/2009 7:05:00 PM
Prediction: over

Reason: I'm playing on Chicago and Toronto to finish OVER the total. At first glance, this o/u line seems quite high. However, when considering that the last meeting between them had an o/u line of 214.5, this one doesn't seem all that high anymore. That's particulary true given the style of basketball that the Raptors are playing so far this season. Indeed, Toronto is starting to look a little like an East Coast version of the Suns or Warriors. Last time out, the Raptors combined with the Spurs for 255 points - all of them scored in regulation. The Spurs won 131-124. In their previous game, the Raptors gave up 129 at Dallas. The Mavs had a season-high in points and their 62.4% shooting percentage was the highest percentage by a Toronto opponent in more than six seasons. While both those games were on the road, the Raptors most recent home game resulted in a 110-99 win over the Pistons and their previous home game was a 125-116 loss vs. Orlando. Overall, Toronto games are averaging greater than 220 points for the season. Not surprisingly, five of their last six have finished above the total. Admittedly, Chicago games have been much lower-scoring than Toronto games. However, I don't think they'll mind playing an up tempo opponent like the Raptors and they'll know that they're likely going to need to score triple-digits to have a chance to win. (The Raptors have scored in triple-digits in every game this season.) Looking at the series history between these teams and we find the OVER at 10-5 the last 15 times that the Bulls played here. The most recent meeting here finished with a score of 134-129. Granted, the game went to overtime. Still, 238 of those points were scored in regulation. The Bulls were playing the second of back to back games for that 134-129 game and they will be again tonight. Note that the only previous time they played the second of b2b games this season that they allowed 118 points, a game which finished above the total by more than 20 points. Looking back further and we find the OVER at 12-5-1 the last 18 times that the Bulls played the second of back to back games. Last night's loss was of the "heart-breaking variety" too - which might make it a little easier to play a little more loosely on the defensive end of the floor. Overall, I expect an offensive affair with the final combined score again finding its way above the number. *7 Blue Chip

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-11-09

BRANDON LANG

Coaching stupidity. I flat out can't stand it.

With 45 seconds to go in the game down by 3 points with 2 timeouts, Buffalo completes a pass down to the Ohio 33 yards line for a first down.

Instead of using one of your timeouts right there and just getting everybody under control and on the same page, Turner Gill calls for a spiking of the ball thus only giving yourself 2 plays to work with.

Hey Turner, what were you holding those timeouts for, to take back in the locker room with you, put them in your office drawer and see if you can use them next year?

With 45 seconds and 33 yards of field to work with, there isn't enough time to use 2 timeouts and for that matter, with the clock stopping with every first down, your next 3 plays from the 33 yard line are critical.

Use your timeout there, get focused gain 10 yards, ground the ball and guess what, you are anywhere between their 15 yard line and 23 yard line, 18 seconds on the clock and 1 timeout.

Nope, ground the ball, incomplete on 2nd down and a tipped INT on 3rd down and game over. No field goal. No OT. No Nothing.

I met an NFL referee on a flight a couple of years ago. A very famous one at that. You would know exactly who he is if you saw him. I struck up a conversation with him as just a businessman flying to Florida to play some golf and not a sports handicapper who just finished his Television work in Philly.

He said the biggest mistake he has seen in all his years officiating games is how bad coaches at the college and NFL level have no clue about clock management.

Let's just add Turner Gill to the list. My god, I just hate being on the right side of a game, against a public line move and have coaching stupidity bring me down. Especially going for a 7th straight football winner.

Oh well, a 6-1 run still has things heading in the right direction as well as this Tuesday thru Friday weeknight run of 7-2-1 and counting.

Back in the saddle tonight.

15 DIME - CENTRAL MICHIGAN & OVER - 2-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER - Over the years the one thing I have learned about the MAC conference is expect the unpredictable, and along with that comes more backdoor covers than any league in the country.

Central Michigan should blowout Toledo. This game shouldn't even be close. Vegas thinks the same way I do installing the Chippewas as a 17-point home favorite.

I could see Toledo and their crazy offense getting the ball back down 3 touchdowns in the last 4 minutes and stick it right in everybody's face and lose by 14.

I don't know how many times in the past 4 years Central Michigan has done exactly that to me. Allowed the backdoor with a late fumble or INT. So tonight, I protect myself.

In their 3 home games this year they beat Alcorn State 48-0, Akron 48-21 and Eastern MIchigan 56-0.

Now after 3 straight on the road and 10 days to prepare for this battle, offensively I feel they will be ready to roll. It's their defense against Toledo's offense that will determine the cover.

Toledo has the 13 best passing attack in the country and 18th best overall offense so they are going to get their points and with a passing attack like that, they are going to score against anybody which brings the backdoor into play.

These teams are going to score and yes, Central Michigan could very well win this game by 4 touchdowns but as I said, I've seen them up 21 and driving to go up 28 with 6 minutes in the 4th only to see LeFevour throw a stupid INT and the next thing you know it's a 14 point win.

For this very reason, I am taking Central Michigan down to -11 and the total down to 54 and I am rolling with a 2 team 6 point teaser in the wacky MAC conference.

I had a similiar thought process last night with Ohio-Buffalo but didn't pull the trigger and it cost me. I won't make that same mistake twice.


2-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER CENTRAL MICHIGAN and OVER

5 DIME - PHOENIX SUNS - Normally I would side with the road team here catching the Suns in a serious jet lag situation, but I just don't trust this New Orleans team right now.

The Hornets have covered just 3 of their 8 games this year and now have to step up to a Suns team that finished their road trip very strong after they laid an egg at Orlando.

They went into Boston on back-to-back nights and beat the Celtics by 7, followed by big wins over the Wizards and the Sixers.

Like I said, you spend 4 games on the East coast, and them come back west and play a couple of days later your legs can feel like they weigh 100 pounds each, but I feel the Suns are one of the best-conditioned teams in the NBA and will be ready to roll.

This game may be close for awhile but as soon as the Suns get their legs under them, it's bye-bye time for the Hornets, who were 0-4 on the road until they beat the Clippers 2 nights ago.

Phoenix is the play.


5 DIME - MILWAUKEE BUCKS - Denver has to be tired in this spot here.

They come into Milwaukee finishing up their 6 game east coast road trip on the 2nd of back-to-back games having battled the Bulls down to the wire last night.

Now they face a Bucks team that has won 3 of their last 4 SU, and are 4-0 ATS. In fact, you go back to last year and you will see a Bucks team on a 7-1 ATS run.

You couldn't ask for a better spot for the Bucks to get after this Denver team playing their 6th game in 10 nights. Folks, I know it's early in the season but 6 games in 10 nights is 6 games in 10 nights anyway you slice it.

I will gladly take the generous amount of points and call for the Bucks to take advantage of a sluggish Denver team that has failed to cover their last 3 ATS.

Love what Brandon Jennings is doing and the impact he has made, and I'm sure Billups can't wait to be running around chasing him all night.

Grab the Bucks and the points.

FREE SELECTION - DALLAS MAVERICKS

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-11-09

WAYNE ROOT

2009 Football Upset Club

Wednesday, November 11, 2009
3*Central Mich (-17) over Toledo

8:00 PM -- Kelly/Shorts Stadium

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-11-09

Spreitzer picks
over toronto
toronto
Denver Nuggets
Pacers