Recent Bets: What say you?

[SPX]

Here are a few bets I've thrown up recently:

Baroni VS Amir

I took Baroni for .57u @ +155. He hasn't been anyone of note lately, but neither has Amir and Amir showed that he can get swarmed and overwhelmed in his fight against Hendricks. I think this is a hard one to call because there are a lot of question marks surrounding both guys, but Baroni will have a power and experience advantage and is 3-1 in his last 4. Amir is not only coming off of a loss but also has been dealing so lots of injuries that have kept him sidelined. At those odds, I thought Baroni was worth a small play.


Swick VS Hardy

I took Swick for 2u @ -165. Hardy's been looking good, but he hasn't fought anyone at Swick's level. Swick hits hard and will have an experience advantage in terms of UFC fights. I could end up surprised by this one, but honestly I'm surprised that Swick isn't more of a favorite. After all, he's fighting for #1 contendership and Hardy just got done beating up on Marcus Davis . . . that's something Swick was doing 3 fights ago.


Rosholt VS Grove

Got .75u on Grove @ +170. I think I'm actually surprised that Grove is even the underdog here. Rosholt got subbed by Dan Miller in record time, and while he looked much improved against Leben, there's no denying that Leben looked like shit in that fight. Granted, Grove also lost his last one, but Almeida is a higher level competitor than Leben. If Rosholt can use his grappling to do to Grove what Almeida did, then okay, but he's still green and I think Grove has a better chance to use his experience and superior striking to his advantage in his one than the oddsmakers are giving him.


Edgar VS Pellegrino

3u on Edgar @ -295. Not great odds, but Edgar's been looking great in every fight but the Maynard fight. Pellegrino looked good against Neer . . . but Neer just lost to Gleison Tibau, who I think is a decent fighter, but more big than really skilled. I think it will be competitive, but Edgar will get another W, and hopefully gets either a title shot after Diego or fights Maynard again for #1 contendership.


What do you guys think?

[Mr. IWS]

Re: Recent Bets: What say you?

I would defiantly lean towards Baroni. Like you said, he should have a power advantage, and Ive never been impressed with Amir. He always seemed to get his ass handed to him on the TUF show, but to his credit, he would pull out the win. The only problem with Baroni is his gas tank. If he doesn’t take Amir out, say in the first round, I could see him gassing and Amir taking a decision or a late stoppage.

I really think that Swick/Hardy and Rosholt/Grove fight are tossups. I wouldn’t be surprised if either guy won.

Edgar should be able to grind out a decision, but Pellegrino is a tuff dude, and a vet. But gun to my head, Edgar should take it.

[SPX]

Re: Recent Bets: What say you?

Thanks for the thoughts, Zak. I hope you're wrong about Swick/Hardy and Swick takes it pretty easily, but you never do know. I certainly don't feel confident in it in the way that I was confident in Rumble and Stevenson this past weekend.

I missed one bet. . .

I also put .57u on Hamill against Jon Jones at +175. I think they're underestimating him. Jones should probably be the favorite, but he's still green and has a lot to prove. He won't be able to rag doll Hamill like he did to Bonnar and he won't be (T)KOing him either. If he wins, I say it's via decision based upon more precise striking. But Hamill has dynamite in his hands. Of his 7 wins, 5 are by TKO and 1 by KO.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: Recent Bets: What say you?

That Hammil/Jones fight is probably the one Im looking forward to the most.

I wanna see if Jones is for real, and Hammil is a solid fighter. should be a very good fight.

[zY|]

Re: Recent Bets: What say you?

I'm with you big on Swick. I like Dan Hardy but I think this is a bit too soon for the mohawk'd Brit. I also like the play on Grove. He's no world beater but neither is Rosholt, and the odds seem a bit off.

Baroni is possibly an ok bet, but I just wouldn't feel comfortable with my money on that guy. And I don't like the Edgar bet at those odds. I expect him to win, but it's hard to predict how these fights will even play out when two wrestler types go at it.

I took Jon Jones. Hamill has power but he's not great technically. I think Jones beats him up on the feet and has him shooting for desperate takedowns.

[SPX]

Re: Recent Bets: What say you?

And I don't like the Edgar bet at those odds. I expect him to win, but it's hard to predict how these fights will even play out when two wrestler types go at it.

At -295, Edgar's getting about a 75% chance to win. I actually probably see it closer to 80%. If Pellegrino beats Edgar, then I think it would be more like 1 in 5 than 1 in 4. I actually see this fight a lot like the Stevenson/Fisher fight. This is a step up for Pellegrino and I don't see him winning it. He's a good fighter, but not quite championship level material. Edgar, on the other hand, I think is very close to getting a shot against BJ.

[zY|]

Re: Recent Bets: What say you?

Yeah, you're probably right. After seeing Frankie handle Sherk, I don't see what Kurt will have for him. Still, -295 is expensive.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: Recent Bets: What say you?

Totally off the subject, but I was bored, and I know me and SPX talked about this a bit in the past.

I went back from September of 2008 to today, and tracked all my bets.

one bet in 5 months...LOL, I gotta get some MMA action soon.

LOSS 9-6-08 1* (9407) Rousimar Palhares +180 over Dan Henderson
WIN 9-6-08 1* (9404) Rich Franklin -245 over Matt Hamill
LOSS 9-6-08 1* (9402) Chuck Liddell -275 over Rashad Evans
VOID 10-4-08 1/2* (31547) Ken Shamrock +300 over Kimbo Slice
LOSS 10-4-08 1* (32556) Murilo Rua -195 over Benji Radach
LOSS 10-18-09 1/2* (9005) Chris Leben +200 over Michael Bisping
WIN 11-15-09 1* (33501) Brock Lesnar -115 over Randy Couture
WIN 12-13-09 1* (115) Ryan Bader +175 over Vinny Malgalese
LOSS 12-27-09 1* (33523) Forrest Griffen -100 over Rashad Evans
WIN 1-24-09 1* (31576) Fedor Emelienenko -310 over Andre Arlovski
WIN 2-7-09 1* (31510) Kurt Pellegrino -200 over Rob Emmerson
WIN 2-21-09 1* (31534) Demian Maia -250 over Chael Sonnen
WIN 3-7-09 1* (31556) Rampage Jackson -280 over Keith Jardine
WIN 4-18-09 1* (32502) Anderson Silva -420 over Thales Leites
WIN 5-23-09 1* (32524) Lyoto Machida -170 over Rashad Evans
WIN 5-23-09 1* (32525) Matt Hughes -220 over Matt Serra
WIN 8-8-09 1* (32502) B.J. Penn -200 over Kenny Florian

[SPX]

Re: Recent Bets: What say you?

Yeah, dawg! Gotta get that MMA action!

Looks like you've been on quite a streak lately. I think you're afraid to mess it up. . .

[Mr. IWS]

Re: Recent Bets: What say you?

Yeah, dawg! Gotta get that MMA action!

Looks like you've been on quite a streak lately. I think you're afraid to mess it up. . .

I know, its the only thing Im good at lately.

Im probably gonna be on Fedor Next week. so Ill be back in the game.

I was probably gonna be on Tito over Coleman, until that got scrapped.

Ill definatly be on BJ Penn over Diego in December.

[SPX]

Re: Recent Bets: What say you?

You gotta remember that you can't make money if you don't risk money.

There are a lot of good values out there and a lot of bets that I think are as sure as many of the ones that you've taken in the past. For instance, I thought that both Rumble and Stevenson were really good bets even at their odds. My only regret is not going heavier.

Obviously Fedor is pretty much a must bet. I have 5.75u on him so far and as long as the Bodog odds are decent then I'll probably do a Fedor/Mousasi parlay.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: Recent Bets: What say you?

You gotta remember that you can't make money if you don't risk money.

There are a lot of good values out there and a lot of bets that I think are as sure as many of the ones that you've taken in the past. For instance, I thought that both Rumble and Stevenson were really good bets even at their odds. My only regret is not going heavier.

Obviously Fedor is pretty much a must bet. I have 5.75u on him so far and as long as the Bodog odds are decent then I'll probably do a Fedor/Mousasi parlay.

I had Rumble in that first burns fight, when he got poked in the eye 4 or 5 times. That was a tuff loss to swallow.

[SPX]

Re: Recent Bets: What say you?

I had Rumble in that first burns fight, when he got poked in the eye 4 or 5 times. That was a tuff loss to swallow.

I'd have been pretty pissed about that for sure, but you can't blame Rumble for that. It's not like he underperformed so it wouldn't make me more cautious about betting on him in the future.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: Recent Bets: What say you?

Im pretty sure Mazzagatti was the ref for that fight. I wanted to do a Lesnar and punch his mustache off his face. LOL

[Mr. IWS]

Re: Recent Bets: What say you?

Dam bro, that Edger/Pelligrino fight is off now. Thats too fights for you in the last 2 weeks.

Im not sure who Edgar is fighthing now, I hear it was some guy named Matt Grice, the odds are gonna be way higher for sure.

This blows man.