10-25-09

[Mr. IWS]

NEW GUYS! LURKERS!

Dont be afraid to post services if you come across them. Your posts will be appreciated for sure.

Just put them in the appropriate section (regular or premium)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-25-09

Randall The Handle

NFL
Season To Date (Since August 2009) 16-12-0 +9.32 Units

KANSAS CITY +1.89 over San Diego PINNACLE

Yeah, the Chiefs are not exactly a good football team but they’re coming on a bit and one win can do wonders to team morale. You can double that when that wins comes on the road. The Chiefs went into Washington and beat the Skins 14-6 after an OT loss to the Boys the previous week. They’ve already played Philly, Baltimore, the Giants and the aforementioned Cowboys and that’s a pretty decent quartet. They seem to be getting better with each week and as Matt Cassell becomes more comfortable in his new digs with his new teammates, he, too, is becoming more confident and definitely more dangerous. The best news is the heartless Chargers will come to town and this is a team that is simply unworthy of being road chalk. The defense is about as soft as it gets and their pass rush is probably the lamest the league has to offer. The Chargers allow the opposing QB to stand in the pocket and find open receiver after open receiver. In it’s biggest game of the year last week on Monday Night Football, the Chargers allowed two punt returns for TD’s, they allowed 34 points to the Broncos while scoring just three of their own in the second half. A close looks shows the Chargers two wins have come against Oakland in week one by the slimmest of margins (24-20) and a win over Miami in week 3 in the game that the Fish lost Chad Pennington and had to rely on Chad Henne in relief making his NFL debut. Bottom line is the Chargers are a soft, gutless, unmotivated team playing on the road on a short week in a very difficult setting. The Chiefs are coming on and while the +4½ points are tempting, the money line offers up way too much value to pass up on. Play: Kansas City +1.89 (Risking 2 units).



MIAMI +6 over New Orleans PINNACLE

My philosophy of selling high applies to this game, as the Saints stock is soaring through the roof after its dismantling of the Giants last week. That easy win over what was considered a top quality team, combined with the Saints perfect 6-0 record, has the Saints popularity and expectations as high as its ever been. The oddsmakers know it’s hard to bet against New Orleans and it’s very easy to pull the trigger on them laying less than a converted TD. That’s an enticing line for the betting public, laying –6 and not –7. Don’t get me wrong, the Saints are the straight goods and look almost unbeatable with a slew of talented receivers and a QB, Drew Brees that just might be the best in the business. However, there’s always a right time to “step in” against a team and this is that time to go against the Saints after its well-documented blowout of the Giants. Enter the Dolphins, whose style is perfect for this enemy. You all might remember that Monday Night game a few weeks back when the Dolphins entertained the Colts and held the ball for 45 minutes. They eventually lost that game by four points but they dominated everything but the scoreboard. The Saints and the Colts are extremely similar in styles but now Chad Henne has a whole lot more experience and he’s really beginning to impress. Miami’s wildcat offense is wickedly good and even when 22 guys on the field and the whole coaching staff knows it’s coming, they still can’t stop it. Anyway, the bottom line here is that the time is right to go against the Saints and these Dolphins are the perfect fit. I’m calling the upset but will accept the points. Note: Wait until just before game time to wager on this one because we’re sure to get a better number. I’ll update late Sunday morning to the actual price but I expect it’ll be +6½ or +6 and plus money. Play: Miami +6 (Risking 2.12 units).

[GoBlue]

Re: 10-25-09

Wunderdog Comp

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Game: Minnesota at Pittsburgh (Sunday 10/25 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: Minnesota +6 (-110)

The Steelers by default are going to be facing pointspreads that are juiced all season simply because they are the reigning Superbowl Champs. We faded them successfully last week and it worked out and I'm doing the same this week. The Vikings come into this game at 6-0 and I don't remember a 6-0 team ever getting this many points in a game. I went back to 1989 and found just one time a 6-0 team played as an underdog, and it was back in 2006 when the Colts were a 2.5 point dog to the Broncos in Denver. The Colts went on to win that game outright. The fact is that 6-0 teams are 5-2 ATS as a favorite of 4.5 points or less, including the one time they have been posted as an underdog. While the Steelers have won three straight, they have covered just once and on the season, going 1-5 ATS thus far. Despite playing a schedule of teams that are a combined 11-23 on the season, Pittsburgh has outscored these teams by a grand total of just 28 points. You can take any two teams the Steelers have played to date, and they don't have more wins than the Vikings! This is a statement game for the Vikings, because if they knock off the Steelers in Pittsburgh, they will be in the conversation for the best team in the league. Brett Favre has found a comfortable home in Minnesota, mainly because he has Adrian Peterson who is a constant threat out of the backfield to break off a long one. Pittsburgh has become a pass-happy team (not good), and the Vikings have 21 sacks on the season and will be putting pressure on Big Ben. We have seen that take its toll before on the Steelers' offense. This one sets up to be a field-goal-type game (my computer matchup agrees), so getting this many points is certainly an overlay and bonus. I'll ride with the red-hot Vikings here.

[GoBlue]

Re: 10-25-09

Pointwise Phone Service

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3* SAN FRAN, GIANTS, G. BAY, PITTS

2* INDY, PHILLY, UNDER IN PHILLY/WASH GAME

[GoBlue]

Re: 10-25-09

Sixth Sense

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BEST BETS

YTD 20-16 +7.20%

3% SAN DIEGO -4.5
3% NY JETS -6
3% DALLAS -4
3% MINNESOTA/PITTSBURGH OVER 45.5
3% NEW ORLEANS/MIAMI OVER 47

League averages for comparison to the stats that will be listed below.

Average Points Scored 21.0
Yards Per Rush (YPR) 4.1
Yards Per Pass (YPS) 6.2
Yards Per Play (YPPL) 5.3

Home team in caps. All records against the spread unless otherwise noted.

San Diego -4.5 KANSAS CITY 43.5

SD lost a tough game at home on Monday night to Denver. They out gained the Broncos 5.3yppl to 5.2yppl but were out passed 7.6yps to 6.3yps, thanks primarily to five Bronco sacks of Phillip Rivers, who was constantly under pressure all night long. The Chiefs came away win their first win of the season at Washington but they were badly out gained in that game, 5.0yppl to 3.7yppl. They were out rushed 5.9ypr to 3.1ypr. For KC, 11 of their 14 points came on drives of 42, 31, 9 yards and a safety. SD averages just 2.9ypr against 3.7ypr but 7.2yps against 6.2yps for a total of 5.7yppl against 5.1yppl. The defense is allowing 6.8yps against 6.4yps and 5.5yppl against Tennessee before the bye. The Rams come off a heartbreaking OT loss at Jacksonville. They were out gained in that game, 5.9yppl to 4.9yppl, including being out rushed 4.4ypr to 3.1ypr and out passed 7.1yps to 5.9yps. A +2 in turnovers, including an interception returned for a touchdown helped keep them in the game. The Colts have not run the ball well this year, averaging just 3.3ypr against 3.6ypr but they make up for that in their passing game, averaging 8.9yps against 6.9yps for a total on offense of 6.7yppl against 5.6yppl. Despite all the injuries they have had on defense, they are still playing extremely well, allowing just 4.1ypr against 4.3ypr, 4.6ypr against 5.7ypr and 4.4yppl against 5.1yppl. The one bright spot for the Rams this year has been their ability to rush the ball. They average 4.2ypr against 3.8ypr but just 5.0yps against 6.2yps and 4.7yppl against 5.2yppl. The defense has really struggled against the pass, allowing 7.5yps against 6.0yps and 5.8yppl against 5.2yppl. The Rams do qualify in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 127-65-5. Numbers favor Indy by 21 points and predict about 35 points. Indy has scored at least 31 points in each of their last three games. Meanwhile, the Rams have lost by 19 and 28 points at home against GB and Minnesota. They allowed at least 36 points in each of those games. They haven’t topped more than 20 points all year. Indy is probably good for at least 35 points here and that will make it tough for the Rams to cover. INDIANAPOLIS 35 ST LOUIS 17

CINCINNATI -1 Chicago 41.5

Cincinnati was very disappointing in their home loss to Houston last week. They were out passed 9.2yps to 6.9yps and out rushed 6.5yppl to 5.6yppl. They also lost Odom on defense in the game and that will hurt them going forward. Chicago played well enough to win from the line of scrimmage against Atlanta but turnovers and inefficiency in the redzone did them in. They out gained Atlanta 3.6ypr to 3.0ypr, out passed them 6.4yps to 5.6yps and overall 5.5yppl to 4.5yppl. Chicago continues to struggle to rush the ball, averaging just 3.7ypr against 4.2ypr but they are averaging 6.3yps against 6.1yps and 5.3yppl against 5.3yppl overall. On defense they are allowing just 5.4yps against 6.4yps and 4.8yppl against 5.3yppl. The Bengal’s average just 5.3yppl against 5.3yppl on offense, making them almost identical to the Bears. On defense, they allow 5.5yppl against 5.6yppl so the Bears defense has played a bit better. I don’t have any situations on this game. Numbers favor Cincy by one point and predict about 45 points. The offenses are equal and the Bears defense is better, especially with Odom now out. I will lean the way of the Bears. CHICAGO 24 CINCINNATI 21

Green Bay -9 CLEVELAND 41.5

The Packers rolled over Detroit last week 26-0 but there are still reasons to be concerned. While they out gained Detroit 7.8yps to 2.4yps and overall 6.0yppl to 3.1yppl, they allowed a Detroit team that was missing three defensive lineman to generate five sacks to make it 25 sacks for Green Bay’s offense this year. The defense played well, generating five sacks of their own and forcing three Lion turnovers but Detroit also played without star Calvin Johnson. Cleveland was inept on offense again as they lost to Pittsburgh 27-14. They were out passed 10.6yps to 3.8yps and out gained overall 7.3yppl to 3.9yppl. One of Cleveland’s scores came on a kick off return so the offense is still struggling plenty. The Packers have been decent on offense, despite the 25 sacks they have allowed. They average 5.7yppl against 5.6yppl. On defense they have stuffed the rush, allowing just 3.6ypr against 4.1ypr but are allowing 6.0yps against 5.8yps and 4.9yppl against 5.1yppl overall. They did get Atari Bigby back last week and Clay Matthews started at linebacker so the defense may continue to improve over the next few weeks as well. Cleveland has been absolutely horrible throwing the ball this year and with Kellen Winslow traded during the off-season and Braylon Edwards traded before last week, I don’t see how they will improve on their 4.1yps against 5.9yps average and their 4.0yppl against 5.1yppl overall average. On defense they are allowing 4.9ypr against 4.3ypr and 6.7yps against 6.6yps for a total of 5.8yppl against 5.6yppl. Cleveland qualifies in a bounce back situation, which is 74-34-1 but GB qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 679-539-42. Numbers favor G B by nine points and predict about 38 points. The Packers have plenty of talent and when faced against a poor team like the Browns, they can have their way. It’s against the better teams they struggle. Cleveland has played five good teams this year and lost four of those five games by at least 13 points. They have had their best offensive production in their two home games, scoring 20 in each game. GB has played two bad teams this year and won by 19 and 26 points. Don’t see how this game stays close here. GREEN BAY 27 CLEVELAND 13

PITTSBURGH -5.5 Minnesota 45

Pittsburgh rolled over Cleveland last week 27-14 by out passing the Browns 10.6yps to 3.8yps and out gaining them overall 7.3yppl to 3.9yppl. While they allowed 14 points, only seven were scored by the offense as the other seven came on a Cribbs kick off return. Minnesota escaped with a win over Baltimore but unfortunately for me they blew a big lead and failed to cover the -2.5 points by winning 33-31. They were out gained in the game 7.0yppl to 6.8yppl and allowed 8.0yps while throwing for 8.1yps themselves. They out rushed the Ravens 5.4ypr to 4.6ypr. The Ravens overall numbers are a little skewed because they threw the ball 14 more times to inflate the numbers. Minnesota was doing a decent job of containing the Ravens but Antoine Winfield went down with an injury and Baltimore started to pick on his replacement Karl Paymah. The Vikings are 6-0 but their numbers from the line of scrimmage don’t match that record. They average 4.3ypr against 4.1ypr but just 5.6yppl against 5.6yppl, making them average on offense. With that said, they have scored at least 27 points in every game this year. On defense they allow just 3.9ypr against 4.2ypr but 6.5yps against 5.5yps for a total of 5.5yppl against 4.9yppl making them well below average on defense. That combined with the fact Antoine Winfield likely won’t play this week could spell trouble for the Vikings. Pittsburgh hasn’t been able to run the ball this year, averaging just 3.9ypr against 4.2ypr but they haven’t had any problems throwing the ball this year, averaging 7.9yps against 6.7yps and 6.2yppl against 5.6yppl. On defense, they allow 4.8yppl against 4.9yppl and while that is above average, it is below the defense the Steelers are used to playing in past years. I don’t have any situations on this game. Numbers favor Pittsburgh by only two points and predict about 49 points. I see both teams being able to move the ball in this game. Pittsburgh has scored at least 27 in each of their last three games. If both teams get to the mid twenties, and they should, this game goes over the total. PITTSBURGH 30 MINNESOTA 27

New England -14 Tampa Bay 45 (London)

Not much to say about NE’s crushing of Tennessee last week other than they simply steamrolled the Titans. They out gained them 8.0yppl to 3.7yppl, including out passing Tennessee 9.1yps to -0.5yps. That’s right. Tennessee gained -7 yards passing for the game and that included no sacks. They out rushed Tennessee 6.4ypr to 5.4ypr. TB lost by seven to Carolina and out gained Carolina 5.3yppl to 4.9yppl. TB allowed Carolina to rush for 267 yards at 5.6ypr. They averaged 5.0ypr themselves as well. For TB, 14 of their 21 points came on a kick return and an interception return. NE averages 6.7yps against 6.0yps and 5.7yppl against 5.2yppl. They allow 4.7ypr against 4.5ypr but just 5.6yps against 6.1yps and 5.2yppl against 5.4yppl. TB struggles on offense, averaging just 4.9yps against 5.4yps and 4.7yppl against 4.9yppl. On defense, they have allowed 4.9ypr against 4.6ypr, 7.5yps against 6.3yps and 6.0yppl against 5.5yppl. TB qualifies in a winless situation, which is 86-38-6. Numbers favor NE by 17 points and predict about 46 points. TB has played three decent teams this year and lost by 13, 24 and 19 points. They have allowed at least 24 points in each of those games. Going to be tough for them to stay with NE with such a poor defense. NEW ENGLAND 36 TAMPA BAY 17

HOUSTON -3 San Francisco 44

Houston looked really good with their win on the road at Cincinnati 28-17. They out gained the Bengal’s 6.5yppl to 5.6yppl, including 9.2yps to 6.9yps. While they only rushed for 2.8ypr they did hold Cincinnati to just 2.7ypr. SF comes in off their bye week and will get Frank Gore back after their horrible performance against Atlanta the week before the bye week. SF averages 4.2ypr against 4.0ypr but just 5.0yps against 6.5yps and 4.7yppl against 5.5yppl. They allow just 3.3ypr against 3.7ypr, 5.9yps against 6.1yps and 4.8yppl against 5.1yppl. They’ll need better numbers out of their passing game to stay with a Houston team that averages 7.7yps against 6.6yps, although just 3.0ypr against 3.8ypr for a total of 5.7yppl against 5.4yppl. SF has a chance to move the ball on offense thanks to a bad Houston defense that is allowing 4.9ypr against 4.3ypr, 6.7yps against 5.6yps and 5.9yppl against 5.0yppl. Both teams qualify in good situations. Numbers make this game a pick ‘em and predict about 50 points. This is a good match up pitting a good offense against a good defense and a bad offense against a bad defense. I will have to lean towards SF, as this match up is similar to the opening game when Houston faced a tough Jets defense, which runs the ball well but doesn’t throw the ball well. In that game NY won easily 24-7 with the only Houston touchdown coming on a turnover. SAN FRANCISCO 24 HOUSTON 21

NY Jets -6 OAKLAND 34.5

The Jets come in off their upset loss at home to Buffalo in OT. They out rushed Buffalo 8.0ypr to 3.4ypr with 318 yards rushing. They did struggle to throw the ball, getting out passed 5.0yps to 3.0yps, including six interceptions (five by Mark Sanchez). Overall, they out gained Buffalo 5.8yppl to 4.1yppl. Oakland not only upset Philadelphia, it wasn’t a fluke win either. They out gained Philly 5.0yppl to 4.3yppl, including out passing them 7.0yps to 4.2yps. They were out gained on the ground, 4.8ypr to 3.3ypr. They also sacked Philly six times. With all that said, while they did play well on defense, they had an 86 yard touchdown pass to Zach Miller, where Miller alluded defenders for about 70 of those yards. Take away that play and Oakland averaged just 4.2yps and 3.7yppl for the game so their offense wasn’t nearly as good as the numbers show. The defense certainly came to play and there was nothing skewed about those numbers. The Jets are running the ball well, averaging 4.9ypr against 4.4ypr but just 5.3yps against 6.2yps and 5.1yppl against 5.4yppl. The defense has been solid, allowing just 4.0ypr against 4.4ypr, 5.3yps against 6.3yps and 4.7yppl against 5.5yppl. Despite the win last week Oakland’s numbers are still awful. They average just 3.3ypr against 4.2ypr, 4.5yps against 6.0yps and 3.9yppl against 5.2yppl. On defense they allow 4.3ypr against 3.8ypr but just 6.4yps against 6.8yps and 5.4yppl against 5.5yppl. The Jets qualify in fundamental rushing situations, which are 546-416-30 and 454-299-21. Numbers favor the Jets by nine points and predict about 21 points. Jets have some key injuries in this game. They will miss Cotchery and Kris ******* but Oakland is still a bad team. They can’t move the ball on offense and are struggling defending the run. The Jets can move the ball on the ground and will use their run game to put Mark Sanchez in good situations. Hard to believe Sanchez will play as bad as he did last week. Without that poor play, the Jets would have rolled over Buffalo. NY JETS 23 OAKLAND 10

CAROLINA -7 Buffalo 36.5

Carolina finally got their running game going last week by rushing for 267 yards at 5.6ypr. They allowed TB to rush for 5.0ypr. They were out passed 5.8yps to 3.1yps and out gained overall 5.3yppl to 4.9yppl. While they allowed 21 points to TB, 14 of those points came on a kick off return and an interception return. The fact they got their running game going could be a bad sign for a Buffalo team that escaped NY with an OT win but allowed the Jets to rush for 318 yards at 8.0ypr. They managed just 3.4ypr themselves. Buffalo did out pass the Jets 5.0yps to 3.0yps but were out gained overall 5.8yppl to 4.1yppl. Buffalo struggles to throw the ball, averaging just 5.1yps against 6.2yps and 4.8yppl against 5.4yppl. They allow a whopping 5.3ypr against 4.5ypr but just 4.8yps against 5.7yps and 5.0yppl against 5.1yppl. Carolina is now average running the ball after their great performance last week, averaging 4.3ypr against 4.3ypr but just 4.9yps against 6.0yps and 4.6yppl against 5.2yppl. They allow 5.0ypr against 4.4ypr but just 5.5yps against 6.3yps and 5.2yppl against 5.5yppl. Carolina qualifies in a letdown situation, which is 109-38-3 and plays against them here. Numbers favor Carolina by four points and predict 39 points. The situation playing against Carolina is extremely strong but this is a tough match up for Buffalo. They don’t stop the rush well and Carolina is getting their rushing game going. Carolina hasn’t won a game by more than seven points this year and Buffalo has only lost one game by more than seven points so I will certainly lean their way but don’t trust them enough to make them a Best Bet. CAROLINA 21 BUFFALO 20

New Orleans -6.5 MIAMI 47

The Saints rolled to an easy win over a very good Giants team last week. NO out passed the Giants 11.6yps to 6.3yps and out gained them overall 7.0yppl to 5.7yppl. They were out rushed 4.4ypr to 3.4ypr but actually gained 133 yards to 84 yards for the Giants. Miami comes off their bye week following their Monday night win over the Jets the week before the bye week. The Saints numbers continue to be very impressive. They average 4.6ypr against 4.4ypr, 8.2yps against 5.5yps and 6.4yppl against 5.0yppl. On defense they allow just 3.9ypr against 4.4ypr, 5.4yps against 5.9yps and 4.9yppl against 5.2yppl. Miami has averaged 4.8ypr against 4.5ypr but just 5.2yps against 5.4yps and 5.0yppl against 5.0yppl. On defense they have stacked the line of scrimmage to limit the rushing game by allowing just 3.4ypr against 3.9ypr but are allowing 7.3yps against 6.7yps and 5.6yppl against 5.5yppl. Miami qualifies in a very strong fundamental rushing situation, which is 79-31-3. Numbers favor NO by 11 points and predict about 57 points. Hard to believe the Saints offense will slow down in this game. Consider Miami had the ball for 45 minutes against Indy and still allowed 27 points in that game. NO has scored 45 or more points in three of their five games this year. This game will either be a shoot out or NO will get their points but also give some up in garbage time to assist with the over. Miami has scored at least 23 points in each of their home games this year and every game has totaled at least 48 points. Should be plenty of points in this game. Not going to get in the way of the NO machine yet. They have won each of their games by at least 14 points. NEW ORLEANS 33 MIAMI 24

DALLAS -3.5 Atlanta 47.5

Dallas comes off their bye week, which saw them forced into OT to defeat the Chiefs the week before. While they certainly were forced into OT in that game, they dominated the Chiefs from the line of scrimmage. They out gained KC 8.2yppl to 4.1yppl. And, while their game winning score was a 60 yard touchdown pass, they were still averaging 7.3yppl prior to that score. They out rushed KC 5.8ypr to 2.5ypr and out passed them 9.9yps to 5.2yps. Atlanta escaped their Sunday night game with Chicago with a win but they were beaten badly at the line of scrimmage. They were able to force key Chicago turnovers in the redzone along with their efficiency in the redzone, which allowed them to win the game. They were out rushed 3.6ypr to 3.0ypr, out passed 6.4yps to 5.6yps and out gained overall 5.5yppl to 4.5yppl. Atlanta continues to struggle to run the ball, averaging just 3.4ypr against 4.1ypr but they are averaging 7.3yps against 5.9yps and 5.4yppl against 5.1yppl. On defense, they have struggled, allowing 4.7ypr against 4.3ypr, 5.9yps against 5.7yps and 5.4yppl against 5.1yppl. The Cowboys have the best offense in the league by my numbers, averaging 5.9ypr against 4.5ypr, 7.5yps against 6.1yps and 6.8yppl against 5.3yppl. They are, however, allowing 6.5yps against 5.8yps and 5.6yppl against 5.1yppl. Dallas qualifies in fundamental rushing situations, which are 546-416-30, 454-299-21 and 150-77-7. Numbers favor Dallas by three points and predict about 42 points. This is the classic over game with both teams offenses playing extremely well in the passing game and neither team being able to stop the passing game on defense. The total is a little high in case things don’t go right but certainly a manageable number. My numbers, surprisingly, project a low score. Dallas has struggled to score points despite moving the ball, while Atlanta has allowed plenty of yards but kept points off the board. Those numbers should even out if both teams continue to gain and allow the same amount of yards over the course of the season. I’ll respect the numbers to stay away from the over and Dallas could get comfortable with the run game, which could keep the scoring down. Good situation for Dallas coming off their bye week and much healthier for this game against an Atlanta team which has suffered some key injuries on defense. DALLAS 27 ATLANTA 13

NY GIANTS -7 Arizona 46

The Giants were steamrolled at NO last week by a very hot Saints team. They were out passed 11.6yps to 6.3yps and out gained overall 7.0yppl to 5.7yppl. Arizona beat a banged up Seattle team easily in their 27-3 win. They out gained Seattle 4.8yppl to 2.8yppl, including out passing them 6.3yps to 3.3yps and out rushing them 2.4ypr to 1.3ypr. Obviously the 2.4ypr isn’t good and continued a bad sign for Arizona this year but their rush defense has been solid this year although it will get tested this weekend. Arizona continues to really struggle to run the ball, averaging 2.9ypr against 4.1ypr but 6.3yps against 6.1yps and 5.3yppl against 5.3yppl, making them average on offense so far this year. The defense is allowing just 2.8ypr against 3.7ypr and 5.2yppl against 5.4yppl. The Giants average 4.5ypr against 4.3ypr and 7.8yps against 6.4yps for a total of 6.1yppl against 5.4yppl. They allow 4.4ypr against 4.2ypr but Arizona hasn’t shown they can take advantage with their rushing game. They allow just 5.2yps against 5.9yps and 4.8yppl against 5.1yppl, which could make it tough for Arizona to move the ball in this game, especially if Boldin misses this game. I don’t have any situations on this game. Numbers favor the Giants by eight points and predict about 49 points. This doesn’t appear to be a good match up for Arizona. They are not a physical team and there’s a good chance the Giants will put pressure on Kurt Warner most of this game. Meanwhile, the Giants should be able to run the ball despite Arizona’s good numbers against the rush. NY GIANTS 30 ARIZONA 20

Philadelphia -7 WASHINGTON 37.5

Philly lost a game that should have never been close last week on the road at Oakland. They simply over looked a bad Raider team. They were sacked six times and managed just 4.2yps, while averaging 4.8ypr and 4.3yppl overall. While Oakland averaged 5.0yppl and 7.0yps, 86 of those yards came on a Zach Miller touchdown pass, where Miller managed to allude Philly defenders for about 70 of those yards. The play was certainly a fluke and without that play, Oakland would have averaged just 3.7yppl and 4.2yps. They held Oakland to just 3.3ypr. Philly’s numbers have come back to the pack, as they average just 5.6yppl against 5.5yppl. They are playing pretty good defense, allowing just 3.6ypr against 4.0ypr, 5.0yps against 5.4yps and 4.4yppl against 4.7yppl. Washington can’t run the ball as they average just 4.0ypr against 4.6ypr and just 6.0yps against 6.8yps for a total of 5.2yppl against 5.7yppl. When you consider all the bad teams they have played so far, you can see why they are switching play callers this week. On defense, they have been decent, allowing just 4.6yppl against 4.8yppl. There are situations favoring both teams. Numbers favor Philly by seven points and predict about 32 points. Philly is 3-2 SU their last five here in Washington but those wins were by just 2, 3 and 8 points so it has not been easy. Prior to last weeks debacle, Philly had disposed of the bad teams easily winning by 28, 20 and 19 points, scoring at least 33 points in each of those games. Hard to say what we will get from Washington. They have lost only one game by more than six points and that was by eight points last week but they haven’t exactly faced a good team yet this year other than the Giants. In that game they were down and beaten badly before getting a late score to lose by six points. The most points they scored this year is 17 points but they haven’t allowed more than 23 points in a game either. PHILADELPHIA 23 WASHINGTON 9

[GoBlue]

Re: 10-25-09

Steven Budin-CEO
SUNDAY'S PICK

25 DIME
PITTSBURGH

[GoBlue]

Re: 10-25-09

Strike Point

3-Unit Play. 2-Team Teaser:
#425 Take San Francisco +3 -> +9 over Houston (10/25 Sunday - 1 p.m. EST)
#415 Take Indianapolis -13 -> -7 over St. Louis (10/25 Sunday - 1 p.m. EST)

Here's a couple of games we like with the original line, but we wanted some leverage and give some more points to the 49ers and knock off a few against the number for the Colts. I think San Fran can will outright, but you never know what Matt Shaub is going to show up, and as for Indy, well, we chose not to chase a large number and cut that nearly in half.

3-Unit Play. #413 Take San Diego -5 over Kansas City (10/25 Sunday - 1 p.m. EST)

I really think this Chargers defense is a bunch of trash talking paper champions, but they are going to win this game. Last week everyone yelled that against the Broncos it was a must win, but that was for the division. This could be for the playoffs, which is the bigger picture. The Chiefs have looked better in the last couple of weeks, but Kansas City still isn't exactly producing offense, so here's a spot San Diego can come in and get a win. We have our worries about this team, but back the spot and a must win.

3-Unit Play. #419 Take Green Bay -7 over Cleveland (10/25 Sunday - 1 p.m. EST)

Not only can this Packers offense really go, but right now Green Bay can't afford to drop any more games if they continue to chase the perfect Vikings for the shot at the NFC North crown. I think the Pack can really handle Cleveland here, not just because the Browns are offensively inept, but the flu bug has hit Cleveland hard and potentially half a dozen starters could be out this week. But regardless of that, we back Aaron Rodgers and his weapons on the outside to do the damage and cover this number on the road.

8-Unit Play. NFL Game of the Year. #430 Take Carolina -7 over Buffalo (10/25 Sunday - 4:15 p.m. EST)

We had our eye on this game the whole month of October. When the Panthers were 0-3, we called their winning streak and said 3-3 would be where they would sit after this week, and we're holding strong to that statement. And yes, let us say we know who Carolina's quarterback is and understand the consequences if he continues to plays poorly. But right now the rest of the Panthers are playing so well, we love this pick as a whole. And we do think he is capable of turning in a good outing at home against a banged up Buffalo team. Ryan Fitzpatrick likely gets the start after replacing Trent Edwards in a comeback win last Sunday. And this isn't the first time he has looked good as a sub. One of handicapping tools, our memory, recalls in 2005 when with the Rams Fitzpatrick came off the bench in St. Louis to lead a similar comeback while throwing for 300 yards and 3 TDs in an OT win. He looked pretty good vs. the Jets this season, but after that win for the Rams, he started the next couple of games and came right back down to reality, throwing seven INT to just one TD in what were three straight losses. He's not a starting quarterback. And we'll see him hit another wall in the form of a very strong Carolina defense that is playing awesome right now. The Panthers have allowed just four offensive touchdowns in the last three games, while the running game had a breakout performance of 267 yards last week and more of the same is coming against a Buffalo defense that cannot stop the run. Listen to this: the Bills have allowed 962 yards rushing over the last four weeks, and now they face arguably the best rushing combination in all the NFL. Last week we saw a blueprint for Carolina success. Pound the ball with Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams and keep Jake Delhomme under 20 throws, while the defense continues to dominate at home. All three of those things hold to form and Carolina makes a strong statement with the best game of the season to this point. They get back to 3-3 and back in the hunt for the playoffs.

[GoBlue]

Re: 10-25-09

cock Sports

5 Unit Play. #122 Take Pittsburgh -4 ½ over Minnesota (Sunday 1 pm Fox) Top NFL Game of the Week. The Vikings just continue to win games but this will be their toughest test of the season playing the Steelers at Heinz Field. This is the first tough road game QB Favre and the Vikings will have in 2009 and I do not expect them to have much left in the tank. This will be the second straight physical team they will face in consecutive weeks and they should have lost to Baltimore, but got lucky with a missed field goal as time expired. Pittsburgh got backdoored last week against Cleveland but dominated the game, outgaining them 543-197 in total yardage. The Vikings are a dog for the first time this season and expect them to struggle defending the pass, as the Steelers take this game and control of the AFC North. Pittsburgh 27, Minnesota 17.

4 Unit Play. #126 Take Tampa Bay +15 over New England (Sunday 1 pm CBS) This game reminds me a lot of the Philly/Oakland game last Sunday afternoon in the Bay Area. Giving two touchdowns on the road is a recipe for disaster in the NFL and that applies again even though this one takes place in London. The Bucs have trouble stopping the run, but Patriots do not run the ball very effectively and thus most of Tampa’s weakness is neutralized. This game appears to mean more to Tampa then New England since the Glazer family own Manchester United, a powerful soccer team in England. Most of these games outside the 48 states seem to go down to the wire and the dog has covered the last two games in London. Make it three, as the Patriots win, but it is much closer then what the experts think.

4 Unit Play. #134 Take Miami +6 ½ over New Orleans (Sunday 4:15 pm Fox) The Saints have been the most impressive team thus far in 2009 and will enter this game in Miami with a perfect 5-0 record. That being said, this will be their first tough road game of the season since their first two were at Buffalo and at Philadelphia (without QB McNabb). The Fish are coming off of a bye and with a win here they can even up their record at three games apiece on the season. QB Chad Henne looked outstanding in his first action of the season against New York last game and he now gives the Dolphins a deep threat because of his strong arm. This is a perfect compliment to the Wildcat package and expect the Dolphins to own time of possession in this game. Miami wins this game straight-up and getting points in just an added bonus.

4 Unit Play. #138 Take Washington +7 over Philadelphia (Monday 8:30 pm ESPN) The Redskins needs this game or else they may have a new coach after their bye. Jim Zorn has been stripped of his play calling ability and in comes Sherman Lewis, a coach that had success with the Green Bay Packers during the 1990s. It is hard to figure that the Eagles deserve to be this big of a favorite since they just lost to the Oakland Raiders. The dog is usually the strong play on Monday Night and the talent on these teams is much closer to a ‘pick’em’ game then it is a 7-point road favorite. I do believe that Coach Zorn is liked by his players and I believe they will put forth an all-out effort this week to try and save his job. Washington quiets the critics for one week with an impressive victory at Fed Ex Field. Washington 21, Philadelphia 20

[GoBlue]

Re: 10-25-09

SportsbookExpert Picks

10/25 Indianapolis -13 -110 @ St. Louis
10/25 Green Bay -6.5 -110 @ Cleveland
10/25 Pittsburgh -4 -110 vs. Minnesota
10/25 New York AFC -6 -110 @ Oakland
10/25 New York NFC -6.5 -120 vs. Arizona
10/26 Philadelphia -7 -110 @ Washington

[GoBlue]

Re: 10-25-09

Randall The Handle

NFL
Season To Date (Since August 2009) 16-12-0 +9.32 Units

KANSAS CITY +1.89 over San Diego PINNACLE

Yeah, the Chiefs are not exactly a good football team but they’re coming on a bit and one win can do wonders to team morale. You can double that when that wins comes on the road. The Chiefs went into Washington and beat the Skins 14-6 after an OT loss to the Boys the previous week. They’ve already played Philly, Baltimore, the Giants and the aforementioned Cowboys and that’s a pretty decent quartet. They seem to be getting better with each week and as Matt Cassell becomes more comfortable in his new digs with his new teammates, he, too, is becoming more confident and definitely more dangerous. The best news is the heartless Chargers will come to town and this is a team that is simply unworthy of being road chalk. The defense is about as soft as it gets and their pass rush is probably the lamest the league has to offer. The Chargers allow the opposing QB to stand in the pocket and find open receiver after open receiver. In it’s biggest game of the year last week on Monday Night Football, the Chargers allowed two punt returns for TD’s, they allowed 34 points to the Broncos while scoring just three of their own in the second half. A close looks shows the Chargers two wins have come against Oakland in week one by the slimmest of margins (24-20) and a win over Miami in week 3 in the game that the Fish lost Chad Pennington and had to rely on Chad Henne in relief making his NFL debut. Bottom line is the Chargers are a soft, gutless, unmotivated team playing on the road on a short week in a very difficult setting. The Chiefs are coming on and while the +4½ points are tempting, the money line offers up way too much value to pass up on. Play: Kansas City +1.89 (Risking 2 units).



MIAMI +6 over New Orleans PINNACLE

My philosophy of selling high applies to this game, as the Saints stock is soaring through the roof after its dismantling of the Giants last week. That easy win over what was considered a top quality team, combined with the Saints perfect 6-0 record, has the Saints popularity and expectations as high as its ever been. The oddsmakers know it’s hard to bet against New Orleans and it’s very easy to pull the trigger on them laying less than a converted TD. That’s an enticing line for the betting public, laying –6 and not –7. Don’t get me wrong, the Saints are the straight goods and look almost unbeatable with a slew of talented receivers and a QB, Drew Brees that just might be the best in the business. However, there’s always a right time to “step in” against a team and this is that time to go against the Saints after its well-documented blowout of the Giants. Enter the Dolphins, whose style is perfect for this enemy. You all might remember that Monday Night game a few weeks back when the Dolphins entertained the Colts and held the ball for 45 minutes. They eventually lost that game by four points but they dominated everything but the scoreboard. The Saints and the Colts are extremely similar in styles but now Chad Henne has a whole lot more experience and he’s really beginning to impress. Miami’s wildcat offense is wickedly good and even when 22 guys on the field and the whole coaching staff knows it’s coming, they still can’t stop it. Anyway, the bottom line here is that the time is right to go against the Saints and these Dolphins are the perfect fit. I’m calling the upset but will accept the points. Note: Wait until just before game time to wager on this one because we’re sure to get a better number. I’ll update late Sunday morning to the actual price but I expect it’ll be +6½ or +6 and plus money. Play: Miami +6 (Risking 2.12 units).

[GoBlue]

Re: 10-25-09

Colin Cowherd's (21-28 on the year, 3-4 last week) He was 2-1 yesterday

Vikings at Steelers (-4)
Jets at Raiders (+6)
Falcons (+4) at Cowboys
Cardinals at Giants (-7)

[GoBlue]

Re: 10-25-09

Dave Blezow (NY Post) (11-3-1 Last Week)

Jets (-6) over RAIDERS: Unlike the above pick, this one is counterintuitive, since most of the evidence points to the Raiders as moderate home ‘dogs. The Jets were a disastrous 0-4 on the West Coast last season, including an unfathomable 16-13 overtime loss in Oakland, where they have done badly historically. Still, just expect this will be the week the Jets rebound on both sides, with a shutdown game from Rex Ryan’s defense and a better performance by Mark Sanchez.

CHIEFS (+41/2) over Chargers: San Diego won both of last year’s meetings by one point, 20-19 in San Diego (the game in which Herm Edwards went for two instead of the tie with 23 seconds to go) and 22-21 in KC. Matt Cassel (6 TDs, 0 INTs in his last four games) can get it done vs. a shoddy Chargers defense.

Colts (-13) over RAMS: The Colts have won 14 in a row and the Rams have lost 16 in a row. So the question isn’t who, but by how much? With Peyton Manning & Co. off a bye and safety Bob Sanders and corner Kelvin Hayden possibly returning, how much is probably going to be a lot.

Bears (+1) over BENGALS: Even though they lost 21-14, came away impressed with the Bears on Sunday night in Atlanta. Like the way Jay Cutler is utilizing his speedsters Devin Hester and Garrett Wolfe, and believe Matt Forte will score more often than he fumbles. Not totally sold on the Bengals, despite their 4-2 mark.

Packers (-9) over BROWNS: Browns have covered three weeks in a row, but a bad flu bug is going through their locker room this week. If the Pack can protect Aaron Rodgers, this should be a double-digit victory without much trouble.

STEELERS (-41/2) over Vikings: Amazingly, Brett Favre has thrown just two interceptions in the Vikes’ 6-0 start, the fewest in any six-game period in his career. He’ll have to remain nearly perfect to keep up with Ben Roethlisberger, who should pick up torching the Vikings defense where Joe Flacco left off.

Buccaneers (+141/2) over Patriots

(in London): Even after the Pats’ 59-0 wipeout of the Titans, they are averaging only 12.4 more points per game than the winless Bucs, and giving up 12.8 fewer. Both of those are below this spread. Question is, will the long trip and strange surroundings make for a closer game? The first two NFL games in London ended in margins of three (Giants 13, Dolphins 10) and five points (Saints 37, Chargers 32).

49ers (+3) over TEXANS: Love this spot for the 49ers, who have had two weeks to stew over a 45-10 home loss to the Falcons. Not only that, they get Frank Gore back, and No. 1 pick Michael Crabtree will be making his NFL debut at receiver.

PANTHERS (-7) over Bills: Ryan Fitzpatrick was only 10-of-25 in the win at the Jets, which was built on six Bills interceptions. Jake Delhomme has thrown 10 picks, but it’s not wise to base a selection solely on the expectation of turnovers.

DOLPHINS (+6) over Saints: New Orleans has thrived with a strong pass rush and ball-hawking secondary to get to 5-0, but the Wildcat will mute those strengths and identify weaknesses. Drew Brees has thrown for 362 yards and no TDs in two games vs. the AFC East (Bills, Jets), and 1,038 yards and 13 TDs in the other three games. It’s the Peter Tocco/Odd Couple pick of the week (3-2).

Falcons (+4) over COWBOYS: The Cowboys need the game more and will be rested off their bye, but top to bottom the Falcons seem to be the better team, and are too good a buy to pass up at more than a field goal.

MONDAY NIGHT

REDSKINS (+7) over Eagles: Jim Zorn and Jason Campbell both should benefit from management’s decision to have Sherm Lewis call the offensive plays. And with the ‘Skins allowing just 16 points a game, the full touchdown seems enough at home.

BEST BETS: Packers, Colts, Panthers.

[GoBlue]

Re: 10-25-09

Norm Hitzges

Double Plays

· NY Giants -7 vs Arizona
· NY Giants/Arizona Over 46.5
· NY Jets/Oakland Under 34.5

Single Plays

· Kansas City +4.5 vs San Diego
· Carolina -7 vs Buffalo
· Houston/San Francisco Over 44.5
· Pittsburgh/Minnesota Over 45
· Dallas/Atlanta Under 47.5
· Philadelphia/Washington Under 37.5

[GoBlue]

Re: 10-25-09

Double Dragon Nfl

Colts -13.5
Packers -9
Vikings +7 (-130)
Patriots -14 (-120)
Saints -6
Cowboys -4.5
Giants -7
Eagles -7

[GoBlue]

Re: 10-25-09

Bob Balfe

NFL Football
Bucs +15 over Patriots
The Patriots are coming off one of the biggest wins in NFL history as they crushed the Titans. How do you get up for a repeat performance like that when you are 1000 miles away from home as this game is being played in London. New England will be without their 3rd wide receiver and I do think the Bucs cornerbacks are good enough to contain Moss and Welker. The Patriots will be without running back Morris and might struggle a little on offense. The NFL goal is to one day get a team in London. These fans want to see a competitive game so expect the Bucs to play the Patriots a lot closer then one would think. Take Tampa.

49ers +3 over Texans
San Francisco was hammered last week by Atlanta, but they did not have Frank Gore in the lineup and Atlanta is a great football team. That loss woke this team up and with the addition to Crabtree to the lineup they should have their way against a inconsistent Houston Defense. The Texans have improved a lot and have great weapons on offense, but the 49ers can stop the run and should force the Texans into turnovers. Look for the 49ers to show up focused and to steal a win on the road.

Steelers -6 over Vikings
The public is eating up the Vikings perfect record along with the great play of Brett Favre, but there is another QB in Ben Roethlisberger who is leading the NFL in passing yards. Pittsburgh is awesome on both offense and defense and they have size on the offensive line to contain both Williams' on the Vikings Defensive Front. The Vikings will be without their best cornerback and punt returner. The Steeler Defense is going to set the tone early. If Pitt plays their best game this should be a blowout. Take the Steelers.

Carolina -7 over Buffalo
The Panthers have won two in a row and are on their way to getting back on track. Carolina cannot afford a let down against the Bills who will be without Edwards at QB. The Bills have a young and injured offensive line which will make it hard for them to move the ball. Carolina should take advantage of both starting safeties out for Buffalo. Look for both the offense and defense on the Panther to bring their "A" game today. Take the Panthers.

Dallas -4.5 over Atlanta
Dallas/Atlanta Over 47.5
This is one of the rare games that I recommend playing both side and total. Dallas is absolutely monstrous up front and has a height advantage, weight advantage and more experience on every matchup on offense. This Dallas team will show how well they really can play today. It would be foolish to think the Cowboys can totally shutdown this Falcons offense. Matt Ryan has great receivers and great running back and the best tight end ever to play the game. Dallas is going to win this game and in the end it will be high scoring. Take Dallas and also take the Over.