10-6-09

[Mr. IWS]

Fellas. You could really help out our forum by voting for us by going to this page and clicking the link below

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[Chase Black]

Re: 10-6-09

WAYNE ROOT

2009 Football Upset Club
Tuesday, October 06, 2009
3* Troy (-6½) over Middle Tennessee
 

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-6-09

wayne root

vegas legend
troy

millioniare
minne twins

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-6-09

Ben Burns

Burns' Sun Belt TOTAL OF THE YEAR! **8-1 YTD**

Analysis: I'm playing on Middle Tennessee State and Troy to finish OVER the total. These teams have seen the 'under' go 4-0 the last four seasons. However, I expect that trend to come to an end this evening. The last two meetings have both come very close to going over the total. Last year's game had an o/u line of 49.5 and finished with 48 combined points. The previous season, the teams combined for 52 points in a game which had an o/u line in the high 50s. In both cases, the Tro†jans did their part. In 2007, Troy finished with 45 points and last year the Trojans tallied 31. However, the Blue Raiders averaged only 12 points, scoring seven in 2007 and 17 last season. I expect the Trojans to again top the 30 mark tonight. Only this time, I also expect the Blue Raiders to chip in enough to help the game finish above the number.

Playing on the road and facing a tough Clemson defense, the Blue Raiders managed only 14 points in their opener. However, since then, they've topped the 30 point mark in all three of their games. In fact, they've been scoring progressively more points every time that they've taken the field. They followed up their 14 point effort at Clemson by scoring 31 vs. Memphis. That was followed by an impressive 32-31 victory at Maryland. Last time out, they scored a whopping 37 at North Texas. Not surprisingly, three of their four games have eclipsed the total.

Off three straight victories, it should also be noted that the Blue Raiders have now seen the OVER go a profitable 5-1 the last 2+ seasons, when coming off two or more consecutive wins. Here, QB Dwight Dasher will face a Troy defense which is giving up more than 260 passing yards per game. Note that Dasher has already thrown for more than 1000 yards (with seven TDs) while adding 250+ rushing yards and three rushing TD's.

As for the Trojans, they're still the class of the conference. After a disappointing loss at Bowling Green in their opener, they got blown out at The Swamp by the Gators. Throw that one out the window as the Gators would do the same to nearly every team in the country. They've since responded with back to back SU/ATS victories, scoring 27 two weeks ago and 30 vs. Arkansas State last week. Back home and with the national spotlight on them, I expect a big effort from the offense. Note that the Trojans have seen the OVER go 4-1 the last five times that they faced a team with a winning record.

Both these teams returned significantly more players on offense than they did on defense this year. I expect that to be evident here with tonight's game proving to be the highest series meeting since these teams started having o/u lines in their games against each other. *9 Top Sun Belt Total

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-6-09

Larry Ness' 20* SBC Game of the Month (72.7% CFB run s/Sep 26)-Tue
My 20* SBC Game of the Month is on Troy at 8:00 ET. Tony Franklin was a highly respected assistant at Troy in 2006 and 2007 under Larry Blakeney and then last year was fired as Auburn's offensive coordinator after the Tigers struggled to score points in the early going of what turned out to be a 'nightmare' season for the Tigers. Franklin was happily "scooped up" by Troy's Sun Belt rival MTSU and Franklin's spread offense has got the Blue Raiders believing they can end a three-year losing streak to the Trojans and take the early lead in the SBC race (no one is taking Louisiana-Monroe's 2-0 conference start too seriously). MTSU opened by losing at Clemson 37-14 but Franklin's offense is clicking behind QB Dwight Dasher these last three games. The Blue Raiders beat Memphis 31-14 in Murfreesboro plus then won at Maryland (32-31) and at Nothe Texas (37-21). That's three straight games over 30 points (an even 100 in all) for a team which has averaged just 19.1, 22.8, 25.7 and 22.8 PPG over the last four seasons. I guess Franklins IS doing his job. Dasher is averaging 257 YPG through the air but is completing a modest 55.5 percent with seven TDs and five INTs (nothing special about that ratio). Dasher is also the team's leading rusher 251 yards / 3.5 YPC), as RB Phillip Tanner (714 YR / 15 TDs in 2008) has been lost to a knee injury. Without Tanner the last two games, sophomore DD Kyles has totaled a modest 96 yards (3.4 YPC). Troy opened the 2009 season with an 'ugly' 31-14 loss at Bowling Green (led 14-0!) and then lost at "The Swamp" to the Gators, 56-6 (that game is irrelevant). The Trojans rebounded with a 27-14 home win over UAB and then on September 26, got an impressive 30-27 road win vs a solid Arkansas St team (just lost 24-21 at Iowa last Saturday!). After rolling up 551 yards vs UAB, Troy outgained Ark St 507 to 305, holding the Red Wolves to 13 FDs and just 70 yards rushing on 25 carries. QB Levi Brown didn't win the starting job until mid-season last year but owns a firm hold on it in 2009 and his 355-yard two TD performance at Ark St followed his 24-of-32 for 413-yard effort vs Memphis. Brown will face a MTSU pass D which has allowed its last two opponents to complete 64.3 percent for 288 and 301 yards. The last time out at North Texas, QB Dodge threw 54 times and NEVER got sacked by MTSU's pass rush (excuse the pun!). Expect Brown to have a "field day!" As for the Troy D, it is well-familiar with Franklin's offense from his days with the Trojans and if one were to ignore the Florida game (why not?), the Trojans are allowing 98.7 YPG on the ground (3.4 YPC) plus as mentioned, will be well-prepared for QB Dasher. Troy won at MTSU last year 31-17 and two years ago at this venue, won 45-7. MTSU will be playing its THIRD straight road game (in 18 days) and takes on a team which has gone 37-5 SU at home this decade. Troy has gone 6-1 SU in each of the last three years in Sun Belt play (beaten MTSU each year)- and has opened 2009 with that win at Ark St. SBC Game of the Month 20* Troy.
Good luck...Larry

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-6-09

Lang

5 DIME Tuesday Trifecta

Tigers
Tigers Over
Mid Tenn St

Comp Troy Over