10-3-09

[Mr. IWS]

Fellas. You could really help out our forum by voting for us by going to this page and clicking the link below

http://www.investwithsports.com/toplist

then click on the little button that says, sports100.

There are no pop-ups or anything like that, and it helps us get more traffic to the forum.

Thanks a lot.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-3-09

Dr. Bob

7 Best Bets (at current lines) and 4 Strong Opinions. Please check the line constraints if you didn't get down before the line moves by using the Best Bets release page, as a couple of games may no longer be Best Bets (you can consider them Strong Opinions). The lines often move back towards where they started after the initial line move, so you may be best waiting.

Rotation #116 Purdue (-7) 2-Stars at -7 or less. Strong Opinion from 7.5 to 9.
Rotation #129 Toledo (-4) 3-Stars at -4 or less, 2-Stars from 4 1/2 to 7 (the line dropped from 4 1/2 to -4 (3 1/2 at some books) a couple of minutes before it was released on the release page and it may go back down to -4).
Rotation #156 Michigan State (-3) 3-Stars at -3 or less, 2-Stars from -3 1/2 to -5.
Rotation #170 Oregon (-33 1/2) 2-Stars at -35 or less.
Rotation #181 Tulsa (-16) 3-Stars at -17 or less, 2-Stars up to -20.
Rotation #192 San Diego State (-16 1/2) 2-Stars at -17 or less. Strong Opinion from -17.5 to -19.

Strong Opinions:
Strong Opinion - Rotation #124 North Carolina (-12 1/2) Strong Opinion at -14 or less.
Strong Opinion - Rotation #137 Temple (-6) Strong Opinion at -7 or less.
Strong Opinion - Rotation #146 Georgia (-3) Strong Opinion at -3 or less.
Strong Opinion - Rotation #200 UL Monroe (-6) Strong Opinion at -6 or less.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-3-09

Ness 25*GOY Navy
20* club 80 Nevada
20* Perfect storm UTEP
Insider Florida State

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-3-09

Big Al

3* Kentucky - At 12:20 pm, our SEC Shocker of the Year is on the Kentucky Wildcats plus the points over Alabama. Last week, Kentucky was gashed 41-7 by the top-ranked Florida Gators, but off that loss the Wildcats fall into one of my best College Football conference systems. It's 121-68 ATS since 1980 and it plays on certain teams off a blowout loss who are matched up against a foe off a SU/ATS Win (Alabama checks into Saturday's game off a win + cover over Arkansas). Nick Saban's men are 4-0 overall, and ranked #3 in the country. But this will be a tough ballgame. In its last two wins, the Crimson Tide held each of Arkansas and North Texas to seven points. However, college favorites of -7 or more points are a dismal 10-26 ATS since 1995 on the conference road off back to back SU/ATS wins in which they didn't give up more than seven points. And if their foe has a win percentage of .600 or better, then our 26-10 stat zooms to 11-0 ATS. This will be Alabama's first true road game (after one neutral-sited, and three home games), and favorites playing their first road game at Game 5 of the season (or later) are big-time money burners vs. conference foes, including a poor 31% ATS since 1980 off a conference win. Finally, Alabama suffered a big loss in its win last week vs. Arkansas. Linebacker Dont'a Hightower suffered a knee injury and was lost for the season. Hightower's versatility (he could play both Linebacker and Defensive End) enabled Alabama's coaching staff to easily modify defensive formations without shuttling in new personnel, and the Crimson Tide will have a more difficult time, going forward, disguising its defensive schemes. This year has seen an inordinate amount of upset wins by double-digit underdogs, and an outright victory by Rich Brooks' Wildcats wouldn't be a complete surprise. Take the points.


3* Air Force -
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Air Force plus the points against Navy. The Midshipmen are easily the best road team in college football (86-39 ATS away from home since 1988). But at home, it's a completely opposite story, as Navy is 29-49 ATS over the last 21 seasons, including 4-28 ATS vs. a foe off a straight-up win (the Falcons won 26-14 last week)! That's one reason why I like the Air Force. Another is that Air Force falls into a statistical system of mine that plays on certain strong rushing teams, as underdogs, that average 4.2 yards per rush (or better). Air Force currently averages 4.8 yards per rush, and piles up a staggering 319 rushing yards per game. This system is 139-72 ATS since 1980. Air Force will also get QB Tim Jefferson back for this game. Jefferson suffered a sprained ankle two weeks ago vs. New Mexico and missed last week's action against San Diego St. Jefferson is a big part of the Falcon offense, and was named Mountain West Freshman of the Year last season after recording a 5-3 record as Air Force's starting QB. He can both run and pass, and has accounted for 317 yards this season, without turning it over. Last year, Air Force dominated Navy in the stats (outgaining the Midshipmen 411-244), but lost 33-27 due to having two punts blocked for TDs. Similarly, in 2007, Air Force also outgained Navy 474-381, but penalties and turnovers did them in. But this year, Air Force is protecting the ball well, and forcing a lot of turnovers, and ranks second in the country in turnover differential at plus 3.3 turnovers per game! The Falcons also rank 9th in the country in scoring defense (11.8 ppg). Rivalry Game of the Month on Air Force.

Opinion picks

California - At 8 pm, our selection is on the California Golden Bears plus the points over USC. To say that the Bears might have been looking ahead to this home date with their rival, the USC Trojans, might be a bit of an understatement. After all, what else could explain the thumping Jeff Tedford's men took at the hands of the Oregon Ducks up in Eugene. Cal was favored by 5 points in that game, yet inexplicably lost 42-3. However, college football home dogs of less than 20 points react EXTREMELY WELL off bad road losses in which they were favored (or an underdog of less than 3 points) when they are next matched up against teams off a win. Provided our "play-on" team (here, California) failed to cover by more than 8 points in that previous game, they are a solid 95-52 ATS off those embarassing losses. And we can tighten up our 95-52 ATS system further by requiring that our home dog lost by more than 20 points in its previous game. Then, our 95-52 stat races to 28-10 ATS. The Bears have a 9-game home win streak currently, and are 8-0 ATS in those nine games (with one off the board). NCAA Roadkill play on California.

Syracuse -
At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Syracuse plus the points over South Florida. This is a perfect situational spot for the Orange. Last week, South Florida won a huge game when it upset Florida St 17-7 as a 14-point underdog. But off that win, let's step in and fade the Bulls on the road, as .570 (or better) road favorites are a terrible 31-54 ATS off an upset win as a 7-point (or greater) underdog. Syracuse is playing better football under first-year coach Doug Marrone (a former NFL assistant and Syracuse alumnus), and is a perfect 3-0 ATS this season. The Orange have won their last two games to even their record at 2-2, and are a far cry from the club that went 10-37 over the previous four seasons. Indeed, one of Syracuse's two losses (vs. Minnesota) was in overtime, so the Orange could easily be 3-1. Also, Syracuse has scored 37 and 41 points in their last two games, and that's the first time since 2004 that the Orange have surpassed the 35-point mark in back-to-back games. (Points scored is a very strong predictor of future success in College Football, so that's a good sign for this game here.) Leading the Orange attack is QB Greg Paulus, who is completing 68 percent of his passes, and the air game is accounting for almost 70% of Syracuse's offensive yards. Although South Florida pulled last week's upset behind redshirt freshman QB B.J. Daniels, the Bulls would no doubt prefer to have QB Matt Grothe behind center, but Grothe is out for the year. That is a big loss for the Bulls, and Daniels certainly wasn't perfect last week as a passer (notwithstanding the win). He completed just 8 of 21 passes and had 2 TDs, but also threw 2 interceptions. That kind of performance (a low completion percentage, with high turnovers) won't normally get the job done on the road. Look for Syracuse to extend its ATS winning streak to 4-0 this season. Take the points.

Texas El Paso

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-3-09

Ben Burns' High Noon Massacre is on East Carolina -2 over Marshall...7*Play

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-3-09

Scott Spreitzer
OddsMaker Error Goy: FlaAtl.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-3-09

Ben Burns

High Noon Massacre

East Carolina -2

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-3-09

Burns

TOW - Okla / Mia Under

Early Rout - East Carolina

Conf GOY - UTEP

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-3-09

WAYNE ROOT

2009 Football Upset Club

Saturday, October 03, 2009

4*Kentucky (+16) over Alabama

6*Tennessee (-2½) over Auburn

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-3-09

BRANDON LANG

40 DIME - GEORGIA BULLDOGS - (If 3 1/2 you buy the 1/2 and only lay -3. Never get beat by the hook)

15 DIME - WASHINGTON HUSKIES - I don't trust Charlie Weis as far as I can throw him.

15 DIME - MIAMI-FLORIDA HURRICANES - Value at it's best.

FREE SELECTION - FLORIDA STATE SEMINOLES

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-3-09

PPP
5 Wash
4 Marshall
4 Army
4 S Fla
4 Tulsa
3 Minny
3 GT
3 SD St
3 Nevada
3 Miami OH

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-3-09

Root
root no limit Big Ten GOY-Illinois
Millionaire-Ky.
Billionaire-Tenn.
Vegas legend: BC
Perfect Play: Tex.A&M

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-3-09

dr. bob 4* toledo

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-3-09

Dr. Bob (added opinions)
While doing my free analysis I found 2 games that were worthy of a strong opinion status (Ohio +3 and Baylor -21). For those of you that don't know, all other games that are not part of the Best Bets package are analyzed on my website in the free analysis section.



Strong Opinion
Ohio (+3) 23 BOWLING GREEN 20
Ohio looks like a better team than Bowling Green on both sides of the ball, as the Bobcats rate at 0.4 yards per play worse than average offensively (after adjusting for the players that Tennessee's defense was without last week) while Bowling Green is 0.6 yppl worse than average on offense. Bowling Green's defense hasn't been able to stop the run the last two weeks without suspended SS Mahone, who led the team with 21 tackles in the first 2 games. The Falcons have allowed 7.3 yards per rushing play to Marshall and 8.2 yprp to Boise the last two weeks without Mahone. Bowling Green is 0.3 yppl worse than average defensively for the season and worse than that without Mahone. Ohio, meanwhile, is 0.5 yppl better than average defensively, allowing just 4.7 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.2 yppl against an average defensive team. We have the better team getting points and I'll consider Ohio a Strong Opinion at +3 or more.

Strong Opinion
BAYLOR (-21) 37 Kent 10
Baylor will be without star quarterback Robert Griffin, who is out for the season, but Blake Szymanski was a starter in 2007 and may not be that bad. Even if Szymanski plays like he did that season (just 5.6 yards per pass play and 18 interceptions) the Bears should still be good enough to beat Kent by more than 3 touchdowns. Baylor's collection of dangerous running backs, most notably Jay Finley (212 yards at 9.6 ypr), are averaging a combined 8.5 ypr and that includes averaging 8.4 ypr against the good run defenses of Wake Forest and U Conn. Baylor also has a very good defense that allowed just 4.5 yppl to Wake and Connecticut and they should have no trouble shutting down a bad Kent offense that has averaged just 4.4 yppl against teams that would allow 5.9 yppl to an average team. Kent was limited to just 179 yards at 2.7 yppl by Boston College, the only other good defense they faced. Kent's defense is not quite as bad as their offense but the Flashes are 0.5 yppl worse than average on the stop side of the ball, allowing 5.2 yppl to teams that would combine to average only 4.6 yppl against an average defense. I'll consider Baylor a Strong Opinion at -21 or less.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-3-09

Damon Roberts
First Ever Waive The Rating Game

WAIVE THE RATING GAME

Oklahoma Sooners -7.5 over Miami Florida