9-27-09

[Mr. IWS]

Fellas. You could really help out our forum by voting for us by going to this page and clicking the link below

http://www.investwithsports.com/toplist

then click on the little button that says, sports100.

There are no pop-ups or anything like that, and it helps us get more traffic to the forum.

Thanks a lot.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-27-09

Dr. Bob
The research I did on my NFL methods this summer suggested that I need to be very strict early in the season, as the last few years I've found myself down early in the year and then had to fight back to get to even in the NFL. I do not have any NFL Best Bets for this week, as nothing quite made the cut, but the 3 games below are positive return on investment games and are considered Strong Opinions, which do have a profitable record over the years. The number of Best Bets will pick up when my math model kicks in week 5, but I may have a few next week as well. I know you're all anxious to have more Best Bets, but my goal is to give us all the best chance at a winning Best Bet record for the season. With that said, I do like the games below but didn't have quite enough to make them Best Bets.

Strong Opinion
NEW ENGLAND (-4.0) 28 Atlanta 19
10:00 AM Pacific, 27-Sep-09
There's a lot of talk about how Tom Brady isn't himself and that there is something wrong with the Patriots' offense. Perhaps last week's 4.5 yards per play performance at New York has more to do with the Jets' defense than the Patriots' offense. New York also shut down a very good Houston offense in week 1, holding the Texans to just 3.8 yppl on the road. In case you didn't notice, the Texans erupted for 6.4 yppl and 34 points last week against a good Titans' defense. The Patriots averaged a respectable 5.7 yppl in week 1 against a better than average Bills' defense, so I'm not so sure that much is wrong with New England's offense, which I rate as 7th best in the NFL Atlanta was a slightly worse than average defensive team last season and I still rate the Falcons' stop unit as slightly worse than average after allowing 440 yards at 6.6 yppl to Carolina last week. Atlanta's offense hasn't been as good so far this season as it was a year ago (just 5.2 yppl), but Matt Ryan is certainly a better than average quarterback and the rushing attack should improve upon the 3.7 ypr of the first two games. New England's defense has actually played better than I expected so far, as the Pats have given up a slightly better than average 5.3 yppl to the Bills and Jets, who I calculate would averaged 5.2 yppl against an average defensive team. Atlanta may be 2-0, but they've been out-gained 5.2 yppl to 5.7 yppl and have taken advantage of their +4 in turnover margin. The Patriots, meanwhile, have been out-gained just 5.1 yppl to 5.2 yppl against a tougher schedule than Atlanta has faced (I rate Miami as the 6th worst team in the league and Carolina is only slightly better than average). The Patriots would have been favored by about 7 points if this game had been played before the misleading results of the last two weeks and using this year's games only results in a prediction of New England by 5 1/2 points (my updated ratings also favor NE by 5 1/2 points). The Patriots haven't been playing up to their own standards and last week's loss will have them highly motivated to play well this week. In fact, the Patriots are 18-1 straight up and 16-3 ATS following a loss since the 2003 season, including 13-0 ATS if they are not favored by more than 6 points. One thing keeping me from making this a Best Bet is the questionable status of Wes Welker, who missed last week's loss to the Jets. Julian Edelmen took Welker's spot in the slot last week and had 8 catches for 98 yards, but he was thrown to 16 times for a 6.1 yards per attempt average. Welker averaged only 5.8 ypa on 16 passes thrown to him in week 1, but he averaged 7.8 ypa last year and 8.1 ypa in 2007 when Brady was quarterbacking. I'll consider New England a Strong Opinion at -5 or less and I'd take the Patriots in a 2-Star Best Bet at -3 at -1.25 odds or better.

Strong Opinions (Buffalo +6 and Under 52)
BUFFALO 23 New Orleans (-6.0) 24
01:05 PM Pacific, 27-Sep-09
New Orleans looks like they can't be stopped on offense, scoring 45 points on 515 yards at 7.5 yards per play in week 1 against Detroit's bad defense and then racking up 48 points on 421 yards at 6.5 yppl against the Eagles' good stop unit. However, it's tough to play that well offensively 3 games in a row, especially away from home. In fact, since 1980 there have been 11 teams that have played away from home after scoring more than 42 points in each of their previous two games and those teams are just 3-8 straight up and 1-8-2 ATS, so don't be too afraid of betting against the Saints and their great offense. After all, the Saints had the best offense in the league last season and were just 8-8. New Orleans is just mediocre defensively and Buffalo's new offense looks pretty good with Fred Jackson at running back and Trent Edwards starting to throw the ball downfield to Terrell Owens. With the suspension to Marshawn Lynch, Jackson finally gets to prove that he's the more valuable back. Jackson has 220 rushing yards at 5.1 ypr this season and his career average of 4.7 ypr on 231 carries is very impressive. Jackson is also a very good receiving back, with 105 yards on 15 passes intended for him (7.0 ypa is very good for a running back and he also averaged 7.0 ypa on 45 pass attempts last season). With Jackson in place of Lynch and Owens producing at a good level the Bills' offense has averaged 6.2 yppl in two games against a mediocre Patriots' defense and a bad Buccaneers' defense. Even after compensating for defenses faced the Bills still rate good offensively, although I rate them as just average in my ratings for now since I had them below average heading into the season.

There is nothing below average about the Bills' defense, which has been great against the run and about average against the pass so far this year (after compensating for schedule). New Orleans will move the ball but the Bills should also be effective enough offensively to compete in this game. My ratings favor the Saints by only 3 points in this game and New Orleans applies to a negative 28-74-5 ATS road letdown situation that is based on their recent high scoring games. I'll consider Buffalo a Strong Opinion at +4 points or more and I'd take the Bills in a 2-Star Best Bet at +7 or more.

This game also applies to a 40-10 UNDER situation and my math projects just 49 points, so I'll consider the UNDER a Strong Opinion at 49 points or higher.

Strong Opinion
CINCINNATI 18 Pittsburgh (-4.0) 17
01:15 PM Pacific, 27-Sep-09
I considered the Bengals the NFL's most underrated team entering the season and played them in week 1, a game in which they lost to Denver on a fluke 87 yard tipped touchdown pass in the final seconds. Prior to that play the Bengals had out-gained the Broncos 4.9 yppl to 4.2 yppl (I actually took that fluke play out of my stats because it's not a predictive play). Last week the Bengals lived up to my expectations with an upset win at Green Bay in a game in which they out-played the Packers 5.4 yppl to 5.0 yppl. The Bengals had a good defense last year before injuries hit and that young unit is playing very good this season and ranks at 7th in my defensive ratings heading into this game. Cincinnati also has a capable offense with a decent running back in Cedric Benson (4.3 ypr) and a better than average pass attack with Carson Palmer hooking up with a rejuvenated Chad Ochocinco. The Steelers, meanwhile, have averaged 5.2 yppl and allowed 5.2 yppl in splitting close game with the Titans and Bears and I rate the Steelers as the 9th best team in the league, which is where I had them ranked prior to the season. We have an underrated home underdog against an overrated road favorite and my ratings pick this game even. I'd only favor Pittsburgh by 4 points at Cincinnati even if I used the Steelers' ratings from the end of last season and it's pretty clear that the Steelers aren't as good defensively as they were last season, especially without star safety Troy Polamalu. The sharp players that bet the line down from +6 points to +4 points knew what they were doing but there is still some value on the side of the Bengals and I'll consider Cincinnati a Strong Opinion at +3 1/2 or more and I'd take the Bengals in a 2-Star Best Bet if the line goes back up to +6 or more.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-27-09

Ness 20* club 80
NE Patriots

Ness 26*
Titans

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-27-09

ness sunday nfl insider: arizona cards

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-27-09

Ness 20* Perfect storm
Redskins Over

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-27-09

Wayne Root's 2009 Upset Club
9-27-09

7* Seahawks (+2½) Bears 4:05
6* Rams (+6 ½) Packers 1:00

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-27-09

Burns

10* Zona
9* Zona Under
9* Bucs
7* Mia Under
7* Minny Under

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-27-09

PPP
3 Denver
3 TB over
3 Tenn
3 Tenn Under
3 Balt Under
3 Minn Under
3 NE

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-27-09

Wayne Root

Leg -Ariz
Mill - Bills
Bill St L
No L Sea
Perf P - Tenn