5-2-09

[Mr. IWS]

Brandon Lang
Saturday ...

15-Dime Chicago Bulls

5-Dime Rays

free pick - Bulls-Celtics OVER(see daily video for analysis of this play)


15-Dime Chicago Bulls - Are you seriously telling me you're going to give more than a touchdown in this game tonight? The Bulls have hung in five of the first six games, and have virtually become the darlings of the postseason, and you're giving me a handful of points tonight? No problem.

Chicago's swagger has the Celtics playing scared, believe me, and there was no bigger confidence-builder than that fourth-quarter comeback in Game 6, erasing Boston's 8-point lead.

That momentum and confidence will carry over to tonight's contest, which should come down to the final few minutes once again, and could possibly go into overtime. The young guns have every facet covered, including the team's Rookie of the Year, Derrick Rose, whose blocked shot at the end of Game 6 was as poised as watching Michael Jordan in a Bulls uniform.

If there was ever a seventh-seed ready to make a move, and become the first to eliminate a two-seed, it's this team right here.

I love the points. I love the Bulls to challenge for the outright, I love the underdog in Game 7 tonight.

5-Dime Rays Though knuckle-ball specialist Timmy Wakefield has had his share of success against the Rays during his career, Tampa has had its way with him the last five times he's toed the rubber against it. In those meetings, he's given up 21 earned runs over 23 innings of work, while he's 0-3 in the last four dates against the Rays. I'd much rather side with Tampa Bay, which has won four straight in this rivalry and 15 of the last 21 overall. The Rays have also beaten the Sox in 13 of the last 16 meetings at Tropicana Field.

[Mr. IWS]

My Las Vegas Insider is on the Phi Phillies at 3:40 ET. The Mets and Phillies have battled down the home stretch of the last two MLB seasons, with the Phillies prevailing (actually "running down") the Mets both years to win the NL East. The Phillies, as everyone knows, went on to capture the World Series last year, the team's first championship since 1980. The Mets haven't won a World Series since 1986 but the team sure has 'spent' these last few seasons, in an effort to do so. These NL East rivals met for the first time in 2009 last night, as the Mets won 7-4. Chan Ho Park allowed seven runs in 4.2 innings on Friday for the Phillies and the team's starting pitching has been its downfall so far in 2009. Believe it or not, Philadelphia's five starters own a major league-worst 6.65 ERA. However, expect the ageless Jamie Moyer "to come to the rescue," today. Meanwhile, the Mets will try to get by with the struggling Oliver Perez. Perez looked to be an up and coming star back in 2004 with the Pirates, going 12-10 with a 2.98 ERA (239 Ks in 196 IP). However, he fell to 7-5 with a 5.85 ERA in 20 starts the following year, before going a pathetic 3-13 (6.55 ERA) in 2006. During that year he was traded to the Mets and did pitch surprising well for them in the postseason. That led to a solid 15-10 (3.56) season in 2007 (team was 17-12 in his starts) and a 10-7 (4.22) year in 2008 (team was 19-15). A close look at his last two seasons with New York will reveal that his ERA jumped by more than a half-run and that he won five fewer games but yet the Mets signed him to a three-year, $36 million contract in the off-season (that's how it works circa 2009 in MLB!). Perez is hardly living up to his end of the deal. He's failed to make it out of the fifth inning in three of his four starts, has allowed 23 hits and 15 walks in his 19.1 innings this year, while posting a 9.31 ERA. He allowed seven runs, nine hits and three walks in just 4.1 innings of his last start, an 8-1 loss to the now 5-17 Nationals this past Sunday. Manager Jerry Manuel has voiced his displeasure and it appears Perez is getting one last chance, before facing possible banishment to the bullpen. It should be noted that Perez started four games against Philadelphia in 2008, allowing one earned run in 26 innings while striking out 27, as the Mets won three of the four games. However, I'm not betting that this left-handers' confidence is all that high right now. The Phillies went 32-22 vs lefties last year (5.4 RPG) and so far in 2009, are 4-1 vs lefties while averaging 8.0 RPG. Now back to Moyer. He was 16-7 with a 3.71 ERA last season, as the Phillies went an impressive 22-11 in his 33 starts (plus-$1,021). He did not get off to a great start in 2009, allowing exactly four ERs in each of his first three outings (23 hits in 17 IP) but he allowed just one ER and seven hits in Sunday's 13-2 win over the Marlins in Florida last Sunday. Moyer started six times against the Mets last season (teams split the six games) and posted a solid 3.53 ERA. I really like the Moyer over Perez matchup in this one. Las Vegas Insider Phi Phillies.

My 15* AL Game of the Week is on the Min Twins at 7:10 ET. The Twins have been one of MLB's best home teams for the better part of this decade. However, they opened the 2009 season just 3-5 at home but with last night's 7-5 win over the Royals, the Twins have now won SIX of their last seven home games and have climbed back over .500 for the season, at 12-11. The Twins have to be thrilled with their position, as they played the first 22 games of 2009 (all of April) without All-Star catcher Joe Mauer. Despite that fact, the Twins are tied with the Royals at 12-11, a half-game ahead of the 11-11 Tigers and just a half-game back of the division-leading White Sox (12-10). The Twins welcomed back Mauer last night and the player who hit .347 in 2006 and .328 in 2008, homered in his first at-bat, finishing the game 2-for-3 with three runs scored. The starting pitchers tonight are Brian Bannister for KC and Glen Perkins for the Twins. Bannister showed a lot of promise back in 2007, going 12-9 with a 3.87 ERA in 27 starts (team was 15-12). That's some pretty good pitching for a team which was only 69-93 that year. However, Bannister regressed last year, when the Royals improved to 75-87. He was 9-16 with a 5.76 ERA in 32 starts (team was 13-19), allowing 215 hits in 182.2 innings. He opened 2009 in the minors but hs been terrific in two late April starts. He went six innings (four hits and no runs) in a 2-0 win at Cleveland and then went seven innings (one hit and one run) in a 7-1 home win over Toronto on 4/27. As for Perkins, he had made 23 appearances for the Twins in 2006 and 2007 (all in relief), before getting called up to Minnesota in May of last year. He was inserted into the starting rotation and remained there all season, going 12-4 with a 4.41 ERA in 26 starts. His road ERA was not good (5.13) but he pitched well in the Metrodome, posting a 3.84 ERA. He did not look good in his last start, allowing seven hits and four ERs over five innings of a 4-2 loss at Cleveland last Sunday. However, just like last year, he's been very good here in the Metrodome to open 2009. His first three starts of this season all came at home and he lasted eight innings in each outing, allowing a total of just four ERs (1.50 ERA). Now I realize that Bannister has been very good in his first two starts of 2009 but are we supposed to ignore his 8.43 ERA in 15 road starts last year? Here, he faces a Minnesota team which went 53-28 at home in 2008 (plus-$1,854) and as mentioned at the top, is just "hitting its stride' here at home in 2009, having won SIX of the last seven. AL Game of the Week 15* Min Twins.

My 15* Bailout Blowout is on the Sea Mariners at 9:10 ET. The Mariners have given every indication that last year's 61-101 'nightmare' season is behind them Let's not forget that the 2007 Mariners were 88-74 and at plus-, were MLB's second-biggest "money makers" that season. I don't want to go 'overboard' regarding this year's 14-9 start but it is good news that no other team in the AL West currently owns a winning record and that includes last year's 100-win LA Angels team, which has opened just 9-13. Seattle will again host Oakland tonight and last night the Mariners opened their three-game series against the A's with a dramatic 8-7 win (got a two-out bases-loaded single from Jose Lopez for the game-winner). The Mariners came back from a 6-1 deficit and the win was Seattle's fourth straight this year over the 8-12 A's. Going back into last season, Seattle owns a seven-game winning streak over Oakland, which marks its longest in series history vs the A's. Rookie Trevor Cahill (0-2, 5.40 ERA) starts for Oakland and Jarrod Washburn (3-1, 3.42 ERA) gets the call for Seattle. A's manager Bob Geren trotted out this starting rotation at the beginning of the 2009 season. Dallas Braden was the team's Opening Day starter, followed by rookie Trevor Cahill, Dana Eveland, rookie Brett Anderson and Josh Outman. That group owned a combined 63 major league starts! This will be Cahill's fifth career start for Oakland and he's still looking for his first major-league win. Cahill pitched well in his first three starts (including one vs Seattle) but he gave up seven ERs on eight hits over a season-low 2.2 innings in his most recent start, an 8-2 loss to Tampa Bay on April 24. Entering this year, Washburn's 18-6 (3.15) season of 2002 (Angels won World Series that year) had long been forgotten, as these last three years in Seattle have been a 'nightmare.' Washburn was 23-43 (4.55), with the Mariners going 37-52 in his 89 starts from 2006-08. However, he opened '09 by going 3-0 with a 1.71 ERA in three starts. He was hoping for his first 4-0 start since his rookie season of 1998 last Sunday, but was shelled for six runs on eight hits over 5.1 innings of an 8-0 loss at Anaheim. He walked three and did not strike out a batter, while his ERA climbed to 3.42 from 1.71. Washburn has faced Oakland more than any other team, going 8-15 with a 4.10 ERA in 34 games. He has never beaten the A's here in Safeco Field (0-3 with a 5.46 ERA in five starts) but I'm looking past that for a number of reasons. As already mentioned, the Mariners have won all four games with Oakland this year, plus own a seven-game winning streak against them. The A's come into this game hitting an AL-low .238 with the fewest runs scored (86 / 4.3 per) of any AL team as well. Oakland had all sorts of trouble vs left-handers away from home last year (just 10-18) and in '09, has opened 2-8 vs left-handers in all settings, including going 1-5 on the road. Bailout Blowout 15* Sea Mariners.

My Weekend Wipeout Winner is on the Bos Celtics at 8:05 ET. Last night I called for a "wipeout" by the Heat, counting on Atlanta's overconfidence and lack of experience in a "close out" situation. I was "right on" with that call, as the Heat jumped out to an early lead and cruised to a 26-point win. The situation is not the same tonight, as the Bulls have played an incredible series with the defending champs, as FOUR of the six games have gone into overtime, with the Bulls taking three of them. Can the Bulls (a No. 7 seed), really take out the Celtics (No. 2 seed) in a Game 7? Of course, the catch is, Chicago needn't win to 'cover.' The last time a No. 7 seed upset a No. 2 seed was back in 1998, when the Knicks upset the Heat. For you history buffs, the very next year, the Knicks (as a No. 8 seed) beat the Heat again (this time a No. 1 seed) and made it all the way to the NBA Finals, before losing to the Spurs (the first of San Antonio's four titles with Tim Duncan), However, I digress. Back to this series and this game. The Celtics blew an eight-point lead in the fourth quarter of Game 6 and then lost 128-127 in triple-OT, wasting a 51-point effort by Ray Allen. History tells us that the home team has won 80 of the NBA's all-time 98 Game 7s (that's 81.6 percent) and the Boston franchise has sure had its fair share of classic Game 7s. Boston won two Game 7s on its way to last year's title and while KG is not around this time, I'm betting on Pierce, Allen and Rondo (an amazing 19 assists without a SINGLE turnover in Game 6). The Bulls have been great but I'm going with the "experience factor" in this one. I expect the Celtics will extend the lead down the stretch and as the Bulls see their season slipping away, will find themselves on the losing end of double-digit ATS loss. Weekend Wipeout Winner Bos Celtics.

Good Luck...Larry

[Mr. IWS]

ROOT

CC-------------------Chi Bulls
Mill------------------Minnesota
No Limit-----------San Fran
Billionaire---------Philadelphia

[Mr. IWS]

Burns
9* under Celtics
7* Celtics
7*under 8.5 mariners
6* Twins
9* Rangers