5-1-09 [Archive] - Investwithsports.com Sportstalk and Gambling forum

Mr. IWS

05-01-2009, 02:01 PM

Ness

My 15* Team Mismatch is on the Mil Brewers at 8:05 ET. I went against the D'backs last night (won 4-1) and said this about them going into Thursday's game.

"The D'backs begin an eight-game road trip Thursday night in Milwaukee, just 9-12 on the season, after posting a very disappointing 8-10 home mark to open 2009 (had played 18 of first 21 games at home). The D'backs had gone 98-64 (.605) at home in 2007 and 2008 but are batting a ML-low .229 and with 83 runs scored (3.95 per game), they are among MLB's lowest scoring teams as well. The D'backs played three consecutive 2-0 games with the Giants, losing twice in their only road games of 2009. Doing the math, that means the D'backs have scored a grand total of just two runs in the three games (0.67 per) and a check of the boxscores show the team went a collective 11-for-87, or .126!

So what happened last night? Arizona's Felipe Lopez hit a leadoff homer but the D'backs never scored again in a 4-1 loss. The team was a collective 7-of-31 at the plate, meaning in the team's 1-3 road start, in which the D'backs are averaging .075 RPG, the team owns a .153 batting average (18-of-118). Jon Garland gets the start for the D'backs tonight. He was a fairly non-descript starter with the White Sox in his first five seasons but went 18-10 (3.50) when Chicago captured the World Series title in 2006 and followed in 2006 by going 18-7 (4.51). He fell out of favor in Chicago after going 10-13 in 2007 and signed with the Angels last year, going 14-8 with a 4.90 ERA. His high ERA could be a concern but let's note that these last four seasons, Garland's teams are 75-55 in his 130 starts (includes the postseason), after the Angels went 20-12 in his 32 starts last year. All of Garland's four starts in 2009 have come at Chase Field and he's just 1-1 with a 5.47 ERA but the D'backs are 3-1. That winning mark is not due much to Garland though, who has allowed 28 hits and 12 walks (just nine Ks) in 24.2 innings. This will be his first road start of '09 and it comes against the suddenly hot Brewers. Milwaukee got off to a 4-9 start in '09 but last night's 4-1 win makes it EIGHT wins in its last nine games. Manny Parra starts for Milwaukee tonight and he's 0-4 with a 6.52 ERA to open 2009. He was terrible in his first three outings but pitched well in his last start, going five innings and allowing just one ER (three in total) in a 3-2 hard-luck loss on Sunday at Houston. The good news is that he gets to face the poor-hitting D'backs plus the Brewers are "in a groove." The Brewers improved their road record last year (41-40) and with their typical strong play at home (49-32), it allowed them to reach the postseason for the first time since 1982. Let me note that the Brewers had gone 99-63 (.611) during the 2006 and 2007 seasons in Miller Park but the team's road woes (59-103, .364) during that same two-year span, kept them a sub-.500 team. Doing the math, Milwaukee's gone 148-95 (.609) these last three years at home (2006-08), so expect Parra to get his first win of 2009, tonight. Team Mismatch 15* Mil Brewers.

My 15* Underdog Shocker is on the SD Padres at 10:10 ET. The Padres and Dodgers opened a four-game series last night, as LA improved to 7-0 at home with an 8-5 win. It marks the Dodgers best home start to a season since the team was in Brooklyn (1947 team opened 8-0, a year which is best remembered as Jackie's Robinson's rookie season). The Dodgers are already 15-8, giving them an early 3 1/2 game lead in the NL West and the fast start at home is good news, as last night's game was just the first, of what will be a season-high 11-game homestand. The Padres fell to 5-7 on the road this year and 11-11 overall. However, the Padres do have Jake Peavy on the mound for them, while the Dodgers counter with the struggling Clayton Kershaw. Peavy and the Padres opened this 2009 season vs the Dodgers back on April 6 (in San Diego) and LA finally ended its long losing streak against Jake Peavy by beating him 4-1 on Opening Day '09. However, Peavy is 13-2 with a 2.39 ERA against the Dodgers in his career and had won 11 straight decisions with a 2.02 ERA over 17 starts vs LA before losing on April 6. He is, as well, 6-1 with a 3.46 ERA in eight career outings at Dodger Stadium, winning five straight decisions and three straight starts. LA's Clayton Kershaw went 5-5 with a 4.26 ERA as a rookie last year (22 appearances / 21 starts). His first start of '08 didn't come until May 25 and his first major league win didn't come until his 10th start, a 2-0 win over the sad-sack Nationals on June 27. He had opened his career 0-3 in his nine previous starts, although the Dodgers were 4-5 in those nine games. LA won Kershaw's final five starts of the 2008 season, as the team finished 13-8 in his 21 starts last year. Kershaw opened with two good starts this season (12 IP / 3 hits / 2 ERs / 19 Ks vs just 5 walks) but he's been awful in his last two. He's allowed 16 hits and 15 ERs over nine innings (15.00 ERA), while his strikeout-to-walk ratio is 7-6. Peavy has been mediocre to open 2009 but as always, I expect the Dodgers to bring out the best in him and I'm taking the "nice price" against the shaky (at best) Kershaw, despite's LA's perfect 7-0 home start. Underdog Shocker 15* SD Padres.

My Oddsmaker's Error is on the SF Giants at 10:15 ET. The Rockies an Giants open a three-game series tonight in San Francisco's at AT&T Park. The Rockies have won three of their last four and come in 8-10 while the Giants have overcome a 2-7 start by closing April winning eight of their last 11 games. Colorado has averaged eight runs per game over its last four but let's not get too excited, as the Rockies had lost 10 of their previous 12 games (prior to their "mini-run"), averaging a rather sad 3.8 RPG. Ubaldo Jimenez (1-3 with a 7.58 ERA) gets the call for Colorado. He pitched well down the stretch for the 2007 team, which made it all the way to the Worlds Series. However, the Rockies "fell back to earth" in 2008 going 74-88 and Jimenez went 1-12 with a 3.99 ERA. He was much more effective in Coors Field (team was 10-6 and he posted a 3.32 ERA) than he was on the road (team was 5-13 / 4.72 ERA). He opened this year with two solid starts (he won the 1st, lost the 2nd) but in his last two outings (at LA and home to LA), he's lasted just 8.1 innings, allowing 15 hits, eight walks and 13 ERs (14.04 ERA). The Giants counter with Randy Johnson. The future Hall-of-Famer pitched very poorly in his first two outings of 2009. He then went seven innings while allowing just one hit (seven Ks) in a 2-0 win at home over Arizona. His last outing was at Arizona and he lasted just 3.1 innings because he allowed seven walks and three hits (but only two runs) in a game the D'backs eventually won, 5-3. Johnson has had little trouble with the Rockies since 2001, going 14-4 with a 2.13 ERA in 20 starts. Think that's "old news?" He posted a 2.70 ERA in winning all three of his starts against them last season. Now let's look closer at the Rockies on the road. When the team made it's World Series run in 2007, the Rockies were 39-42 on the road, marking the franchise's best road record this decade. The Rockies are a pathetic 276-453 away from Coors Field since 2000, for a winning percentage (if you will pardon the pun) of .379. That does NOT include the team's 4-7 start away from Coors this year, where the team's allowed opponents to score 5.27 RPG. The Giants may be just 10-10 overall but they are 8-3 at home, with the team's pitching staff holding opponents to only 2.64 RPG in the process. Expect a solid outing by the Big Unit and considering Colorado's poor road play (this year and since 200!), Jimenez's recent poor outings (don't forget Colorado going 5-13 in his road starts LY) and the Giants excellent home play TY, this number is WAY too cheap! Oddsmaker's Error 15* SF Giants.

My Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Mia Heat at 8:05 ET. The Hawks (No. 4 seed) and Heat (No. 5 seed) have had an interesting series. Atlanta won Game 1 at home by 26 points but the Heat responded by winning Game 2 in Atlanta by 15. The Heat then took Game 3 (in Miami) by 29 points, with the Hawks bouncing back in Game 4 (also in Miami) for a 10-point win. The Hawks won Game 5 back home in Atlanta 106-91, meaning not a single game has been decided by less than 10 points. The average margin of victory by the winning team has been 19.0 PPG. What's in store for Game 6 tonight? It's been "all Atlanta" recently. The Hawks have controlled the last two games, jumping out to huge leads in Games 4 and 5. Tempers have flared in both contests, with a combined 100 fouls being called. There has been plenty of shoving, staredowns and in the case of the Hawks, showboating. The Hawks will be wise to remember that last year's playoff appearance ended the team's eight-year playoff drought. Meanwhile, Wade was the NBA Finals' MVP in 2006, leading the Heat to the championship. Atlanta will likely be without Marvin Williams (listed as doubtful with a wrist problem) and center Al Horford should at least be slowed by an ankle injury (listed as questionable). Let me also remind everyone that Atlanta's win at Miami in Game 4 was the Hawks' first road postseason win in nearly 12 years, a stretch spanning 13 games. Expect another double digit win in this series tonight, with the Heat coming out on top. Weekly Wipeout Winner Mia Heat.

Good Luck...Larry