4-27-09

[Mr. IWS]

BURNS NBA

Basketball (NBA)

ATLANTA

Game: Atlanta Hawks vs. Miami Heat Game Time: 4/27/2009 8:00:00 PM Prediction: Atlanta Hawks Reason: I'm taking the points with ATLANTA. After the Hawks won in blowout fashion in the opener, the Heat have responded with back to back blowout victories of their own. I expect the Hawks to bounce back with a MUCH better effort here. After the Game 3 loss, we're hearing more and more talk about the Hawks' road woes in the playoffs. However, anything prior to last year is "ancient history" and let's remember that last year's postseason road games came at Boston against a much more complete team than they're facing here. Additionally, the Hawks are a year more experienced than they were last year. The Hawks are also hearing more and more about their playoff road losing streak and they're extremely anxious to end that talk. Atlanta guard Joe Johnson had this to say: "We have to make something happen, and I count myself as one who has to step up his game." Even with the Game 3 loss, the Hawks are still a profitable 21-14-1 ATS as underdogs. They're also 3-1 SU/ATS the last four times that they were trailing in a playoff series. Look for Johnson and co. to elevate their game, giving the Heat all they can handle the entire way. *Best Bet


NEW ORLEANS

Game: Denver Nuggets vs. New Orleans Hornets Game Time: 4/27/2009 8:30:00 PM Prediction: New Orleans Hornets Reason: I'm laying the small number with NEW ORLEANS. After winning both games at Denver, the Nuggets earned a fortunate cover, while losing Game 3 at New Orleans. I didn't play the side in that game (won with 'under') but say it was a "fortunate" (ATS) victory for Denver backers, as the Nuggets were down 10 with three minutes remaining. That Game 3 result has helped to cause this evening's line to be lower than it was for Game 3. I believe that provides us with excellent value with the Hornets. New Orleans fell behind by 16 points in the first half last time out and it appeared Denver was on its way to a 3-0 series lead. However, the Hornets battled back, getting it done on the defensive side of the floor. After allowing the Nuggets to make 10 of 17 (58.8%) first quarter shots, the Hornets held them to 35% shooting (20 of 57) the rest of the way. The Hornets outscored the Nuggets 44-30 in the paint. They also had a 22-6 edge in fast-break points. As they showed last time out, the Hornets are a much better team at home. They're now 29-13 here this season and 89-42 (76-55 ATS) the past three. That includes a 27-7 SU and 24-10 ATS mark when playing a home game with an over/under line in the 190 to 194.5 range. The Hornets have now beaten the Nuggets three of the last four times that the teams played here at New Orleans. Dating back to their days at Charlotte, the Hornets have now won 13 of 20 home meetings against the Nuggets. Twelve of those 13 victories came by a minimum of three points, Saturday's game being the only exception. I expect the Hornets to build momentum from Saturday's victory, evening up the series and covering the small number along the way. *Western Conf. GOW

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 4-27-09

BURNS NHL

SHARKS

Game: San Jose Sharks vs. Anaheim Ducks Game Time: 4/27/2009 10:30:00 PM Prediction: San Jose Sharks Reason: I'm playing on SAN JOSE. Give the Ducks credit. They won the first two games at San Jose and that's given them a chance to close things out at home tonight. I don't see it happening though. The Sharks, who were the best team in entire league during the regular season, have "woken up" and have won two of the last three. While they needed overtime to win the last game, a closer look shows that the Sharks held a significant (48-25) edge in shots on goal and that they played their best game of the series. They got goals from their top forwards and goalie Nabakov played one of his better games of the series. In fact, if we add up the shots from the series we find the Sharks with a commanding 193-124 advantage in shots on goal, outshooting the Ducks in all five games. Veteran Jeremy Roenick, on the verge of retirement, is making sure his teammates know the urgency involved. He was quoted as saying" "That's what I try to instill in everybody. Be afraid that this is your last game. Be worried, and then go out and do something about it. ?K We carried most of the game again (in Game 5), but we've got to find a way to put the puck in the net. We had a lot of chances." While the Sharks have had plenty of "pressure" on them from the beginning of the series, the Ducks didn't really have to deal with any. That's because they weren't expected to win the series. However, having won three of the first four games (and then losing the fifth) the expectations have risen. While the Sharks have grown used to dealing with the pressure, this will be the first time that the Ducks will have really started to feel any. Looking at the previous five games and we find that the Sharks were much bigger favorites for every one of them, including the two here at Anaheim. Tonight's price is significantly "cheaper," which I feel provides us with excellent value. Look for the President's Trophy winners to deliver another big effort, leading to a victory and forcing a seventh and deciding game. *Annihilator

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 4-27-09

BURNS MBL

Baseball (MLB)

CLEVELAND

Game: Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Indians Game Time: 4/27/2009 7:00:00 PM Prediction: Cleveland Indians Reason: I'm playing on CLEVELAND. Coming off a sweep of the hated Yankees, the Red Sox are rolling. This is a tough spot though. Not only did they play a Sunday Night 'ESPN' game last night, but they're also facing last year's AL Cy Young award winner, Cliff Lee. Lee got off to a slow start and, as a result, his overall numbers aren't that good, yet. However, keep mind that he was 22-3 with a 2.54 ERA last season and that he's been much better his last two starts. In those games, he allowed just three runs in 14 innings. Lee had this to say: "The results are better. I think I've done a good job locating my pitches and mixing speeds. I think I got a little fastball happy in my first two starts, but I've made some adjustments. I've had good results, but that's what I expect of myself and what is expected of me." Wakefield has gotten off to a strong start and he did beat Lee last season, one of the few to do so. However, that was at Boston and the Red Sox have lost two of his last three starts at Cleveland. With all due respect to Wakefield, in my opinion, he's not in the same class as Lee. The Red Sox have the much better overall record. However, that's been due to their success at Fenway. They're just 2-4 on the road, batting only .244 in those games. While they've split Wakefield's two road starts, they're still an ugly 6-14 the last 20 times that the veteran knuckleballer started away from Boston. Look for Lee to get the better of Wakefield, avenging last year's loss and snapping Boston's winning streak. *Pitching Mismatch


ARIZONA

Game: Chicago Cubs vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Game Time: 4/27/2009 9:35:00 PM Prediction: Arizona Diamondbacks Reason: I'm laying the price with ARIZONA. Both teams snapped losing streaks yesterday. The Cubs, who had lost four straight, knocked off the Cardinals by a score of 10-3. The Diamondbacks, who had lost two in a row, needed 12 innings to earn a 5-4 victory over the Giants. While both teams would really like to build off yesterday's victory, I expect the home team to have the advantage. Both starters, Lilly and Haren, have been excellent. Lilly has a 2.41 ERA. Haren has been even better, sporting an exceptional 1.38 ERA. It's true that Lilly (2-1) has the better record. However, Haren (1-3) finally got some support (2 runs) last time out, en route to earning his first victory. Lilly, who won here last July, has better stats against the Diamondbacks than Haren has against the Cubs. However, all Haren's three career starts against the Cubs have come at Wrigley Field. Note that he allowed just two earned runs in two of those starts and that his poor career ERA vs. Chicago stems from one bad start in 2004. Additionally, note that Haren has allowed three earned runs or less in 14 of his last 20 home starts, 13 of those resulting in Arizona victories. Even with the loss to Lilly last July, the Diamondbacks are still an impressive 10-2 the last dozen times that they hosted the Cubs. Additionally, note that in addition to having to travel from St Louis, the Cubs are currently dealing with several minor injuries to some key players. Aramis Ramirez (left calf) and relief ace Carlos Marmol(left knee) are close to returning but may not be ready to come back quite yet. Milton Bradley has been pinch-hitting only and now Derrick Lee left yesterday's game with a neck sprain. Look for another strong effort from Haren and for the Diamondbacks to start the week off with a victory, continuing their recent homefield dominance in this series. *Personal Favorite

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 4-27-09

Ness




My 15* Situational Mismatch is on the Cle Indians at 7:05 ET. Boston opened the 2009 season losing SIX of its first eight games. However, the ageless Tim Wakefield took a no-hitter into the eighth inning of the team's final contest of a six-game road trip back on April 15 in Oakland. He finished with a four-hitter, as the Red Sox salvaged an 8-2 win, completing the trip 2-4. The Red Sox returned home the next day and on April 17, opened a nine-game homestand. A 4-1 win last night on ESPN over the Yankees capped a 9-0 homestand for Boston, which swept Baltimore, Minnesota and then New York. The Red Sox have now won 10 straight games, the club's longest winning streak since a 12-game run in June 2006. The Red Sox open a nine-game road trip tonight in Cleveland. Boston is hitting .322 during the last 10 games, while scoring 80 runs (eight per). However, all but the first of its 10 wins have come in Fenway. The Indians have opened the 2009 season 7-12 and lost five of six meetings with the Red Sox last year. The year before, Cleveland famously led the Red Sox three games to one in the ALCS (just one win away from a World Series appearance) but dropped the final three games of that series. Getting the start tonight for Cleveland is Cliff Lee. Lee entered the 2008 season with a 4.64 career ERA but went 22-3 with a 2.54 ERA, capturing won the AL's Cy Young award. The Indians were 24-7 in his 31 starts in '08, going plus-$1,452 vs the moneyline, which made Lee MLB's biggest "moneymaker" among starters. However, in his lone start vs the Red Sox, he allowed five runs in seven innings of a 5-4 loss. Lee opened the 2009 season looking nothing like a Cy Young winner. He allowed 17 hits and 11 ERs over 10 innings in starts against the Rangers and Blue Jays. Lee has rebounded though, by allowing just three ERs over 14 innings in his last two appearances. He beat CC Sabathia and the Yankees 10-2 in the first game ever played in the new Yankee Stadium on April 16, then lost 2-0 at home to Kansas City last Wednesday, despite eight strong innings. "The results are better," Lee said. "I think I've done a good job locating my pitches and mixing speeds. I think I got a little fastball happy in my first two starts, but I've made some adjustments. I've had good results, but that's what I expect of myself and what is expected of me." Tim Wakefield began Boston's current 10-game winning streak back on April 15 with that near no-hitter and then picked up a rain-shortened complete game win as the Red Sox beat the Twins this past Wednesday 10-1 (7 inn.), in the first game of a day/night doubleheader. Wakefield is 2-1 with a 2.45 ERA through three starts this year, which is lower than it was at any point last season. Truth be told, Wakefield is pitching "way over his head." One must admire the 42-year-old knuckleballer but the numbers don't lie. His first season with Boston was 1995, when Wakefield went 16-8 with a 2.95 ERA. The only other time since then (Wakefield is in his 15th year with Boston) that Wakefield's ERA has been below three, was in 2002. He posted a 2.81 ERA that season, going 11-5 in 45 appearances, although just 15 were starts. Wakefield's ERA has been over 4.00 in 11 of his 14 previous seasons with the Red Sox, including the last SIX! While the Red Sox have won 10 straight, this is a tough spot for them. They just completed a three-game sweep of the hated-Yankees, winning Friday and Saturday in dramatic fashion. Here, they open a nine-game road trip vs last year's Cy Young winner, who has been very sharp in his last two outings. Situational Mismatch 15* Cle Indians.

My Oddsmaker's Error is on the Hou Astros at 7:10 ET. The Reds won just 74 games last year (72 in 2007), so the team's 10-8 start is encouraging. Cincy beat Atlanta 8-2 on Sunday to salvage the finale of a three-game series and tonight opens a three-game set with the Astros. The Reds won THREE of four games in Houston (April 17-20) and the Astros come in just 7-12 on the season, which is the good news for Cincy fans. The bad news is two-fold. The Astros have won nine straight and 15 of their last 16 games at Cincinnati, with Cincy's starters posting an 8.37 ERA during the Reds' nine-game slide vs Houston. Cincy better get a good effort from their starter tonight (Johnny Cueto), as the Astros will send Roy Oswalt to the mound. Oswalt has been among MLB's finest pitchers since going 14-3 (2.73 ERA) in his first year with the team (2001). Oswalt will take a career 129-66 (3.15) mark into this game, which is a winning percentage of .662. It should also be noted that the Astros are an impressive 158-95 in all his starts (.625), although the breakdown is much more favorable at home (88-38 or .698) than it is on the road (70-57 or .551). However, when it comes to the Reds, it matters little to Oswalt if it's a home or away game. He's 23-1 with a 2.39 ERA in 27 starts and two relief appearances against the Reds in his career, going 8-0 with a 2.15 ERA in his last nine starts against Cincinnati. That lone no decision came just recently (on April 17), when Oswalt and Cueto squared off in Houston's Minute Maid Park. Cueto struggled with his control in that game, allowing just two hits but six walks in 4.2 innings. Owalt was his usual self vs the Reds, going six innings without allowing a run. However, with the Astros leading 1-0 in the 9th, closer Jose Valverde allowed a two-run HR to Ramon Hernandez, as the Reds won 2-1. Oswalt is not off to a great start this year for Houston (0-2 with a 4.68 ERA in four starts / team is 1-3) but remember he was 2-3 with a 6.00 ERA in his first five starts last year, before finishing 17-10 with a 3.54 ERA. Cueto made a HUGE 'splash' last year (his rookie season) in his first two starts. He beat the D'backs in Cincy 3-2, going seven innings while allowing one hit and one ER and striking out 10 with no walks. In his next start at Milwaukee, he got a no-decision in a 3-2 loss, allowing five hits and two ERs in 6.1 innings (eight Ks and no walks). After two ML starts, Cueto was 1-0 with a 2.03, striking out 18 batters (with ZERO walks) in 13.1 innings. However, he finished the season 9-14 with 4.81 ERA in 31 starts (Reds were 12-19). He's 1-1 with a 2.55 ERA in three starts to open 2009 (team is 2-1) but remember he was hardly in top form vs the Astros back on April 17. I'll also note that he's 0-3 with a 6.75 ERA vs Houston, having already faced the Astros five times in his short career (team was 0-4 in his starts vs Houston LY, as Cueto had a 7.84 ERA). Oswalt made just one start at Cincinnati last year and was minus-$1.40. Here, he's actually a small 'dog. Oddsmaker's Error 15* Hou Astros.

Good Luck...Larry

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 4-27-09

ROOT

CC.........Tigers
MC.........Hornets
MM.........Hawks
NL..........Indians

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 4-27-09

Big Al

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Hawks plus the points over the Miami Heat.

At 8:05pm our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Pittsburgh Pirates.

At 9:40pm our selection is on the Chicago Cubs and Arizona Diamondbacks 'under' the total.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 4-27-09

lang

10 Dime Miami Heat