4-14-09

[Mr. IWS]

Karl Garrett

20 DIMER - MINNESOTA (Perkins over Romero)...10 DIMER - NY YANKEES (Burnett over Garza)
20 DIMER - MINNESOTA TWINS (Perkins over Romero)



The Blue Jays went 6-0 last year versus the Twins, and they picked right up where they left off with the 8-6 win last night at the Metrodome.



Minnesota usually doesn't lose too many at home, and the G-Man will back them tonight to get on board with the "W".



Glenn Perkins pitched his butt off in his first start, working 8 innings of 1 earned run ball, but taking the loss against Seattle. I like Perkins to get some redemption tonight, as a 53-28 home field mark last season cannot be overlooked, and Minnesota is way overdue for a home win against the Jays.



I want to see if Romero can duplicate his winning home first start with a quality road win. I don't think he can.



Go with the Twins.



10 DIMER - NY YANKEES (Burnett over Garza)



Last night I gave you Tampa, and that line just went through the roof, and with good reason, as the Rays rolled 15-5.



No repeat tonight, as AJ Burnett looks like he is locked-in, coming through with a solid debut in a win over Baltimore. Burnett has also pitched well in the past against the Rays, and after getting humiliated from the get-go last night, expect the Yankees to have a little fire in their eyes.



The Yankees still own a 10-9 mark since 2007 at the Trop versus the Rays, and they did get to Matt Garza in his last 2 starts against them a season ago, allowing 7 runs in 10 innings for a pair of no-decisions.



I will take the Yankees to even this 3-game set with the win tonight.
Today's Complimentary Selection

G-Man giving you an easy OVER for FREE last night on Baltimore and Texas. Now 14-6 the last 20 days with my comp plays.



Another OVER tonight, this time in the senior circut, as the Reds and Brewers keep the sticks cranking on Tuesday.



Last night, Cincy and Milwaukee combined for 13 runs, and we could be seeing at least that many tonight when Bornson Arroyo and Manny Parra hit the bump.



Arroyo allowed 5 runs in 6 innings in his first start of the season, while Parra allowed 5 runs in 4 innings in his season debut.



Parra's last 2 starts against the Reds have seen 10 runs cross in just 12 innings of work, while Arroyo's last start against Milwaukee saw 5 runs cross in 6 innings. As you can see, these 2 hurlers aren't fooling too many batters of late.



9 of the last 15 meetings at Miller Park between the teams have gone OVER the total, and this one will as well.



3? OVER
(on a 1? to 5? basis)

[Mr. IWS]

Richenboch

Whitesox

[Mr. IWS]

Paul Leiner

100* Yankees +110
100* Indians +10
100* Tigers +115

[Mr. IWS]

DOC

2 units 76ers -5

[Mr. IWS]

Robert FerRringo

1.5-Unit Play. Take Texas (-145) over Baltimore
After losing four straight I gotta think that the Rangers get it back together tonight. In a game between these two offenses it’s really almost a toss-up. But Texas does have a slight advantage with Brandon McCarthy on the bump. His counterpart, Alfredo Simon, took a loss while giving up four runs in his first outing to the significantly lighter hitting Yankees. I don’t think that he’s going to be up to the task in his second career start, especially not on the road and really especially not in Arlington.

1.5-Unit Play. Take Minnesota (-130) over Toronto
How the hell do you lose to the same team 10 straight times? How? Minnesota had that game won three different times last night. I don’t think that they are getting swept at home – they can’t get swept four straight times; they’re not that bad – so I’m going to get on the Twins this weekend and see if they can pull their heads out of their asses. Ricky Romero is another guy that is making his second career MLB start and doing so on the road. I don’t think this outing will be nearly as smooth as his last, and the Toronto bullpen is getting burnt out pretty quickly.

Today's Totals
2.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 11.0 Baltimore at Texas

1.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 9.0 Toronto at Minnesota

1.5-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 8.0 Boston at Oakland

[Mr. IWS]

Bob Balfe

Cardinals -150 over DBacks
Carpenter/Scherzer

[Mr. IWS]

erin rynning
royals / playmaker

[Mr. IWS]

The Baseball Prophet

POD - Rangers/Orioles over 11 -120

[Mr. IWS]

TheSportsPros

Over 190.5 Hawks
Under 207 Jazz
Rays-115
Over 11 Rangers
Over 9 Royals
Cardinals-130

[Mr. IWS]

TEDDY COVERS

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Utah Jazz at Los Angeles Lakers Apr 14 2009 10:30PM
PICK: Los Angeles Lakers
Your pick was graded at: -6 5Dimes
EXPERT: Ted Sevransky
TITLE: On Fire: 6-0 Run Continues
EVALUATION: Play Not Evaluated.
REASON FOR PICK: The betting marketplace is pricing Utah like a ‘must win’ team as they try to avoid the dreaded #8 seed in the Western Conference and a first round matchup with these same Lakers. The problem, of course, is that the Jazz are in this ‘must win’ situation because they’ve been downright horrible on the road against quality foes all year. The numbers don’t lie: Utah is 1-10 SU, 2-10 ATS against other Western Conference playoff teams on the road this year. The lone win came against a Hornets team tanking every bit as much as the Jazz are right now.

Utah is playing on the second night of back-2-backs, and the Jazz are a woeful 5-15 ATS in that role this year. They’ve gone 2-6 SU in their last eight games, beating only the lowly Clippers and the Hornets during that span. The Jazz have lost six straight to the Lakers at the Staples Center, with five of those losses coming by double digit margins. LA knocked Utah out of the playoffs last May, and they’ve beaten the Jazz twice in three previous meetings this year. So, given this relatively cheap pointspread – the Lakers won and covered as ten point favorites the last time these two teams met on this floor – the betting marketplace clearly expects a lackluster effort out of LA in their regular season finale.


I don’t expect a lackluster effort, not by any stretch of the imagination. Check out these quotes. Lakers center Andrew Bynum: “We’re going into (Tuesday’s game) trying to send them a message.” Phil Jackson: “I wouldn't think of sitting players.” Pau Gasol: “I think you can send a message. You definitely want to make sure they know we're a team they're not going to beat.”

3* Take the LA Lakers.

[Mr. IWS]

C-Stars Sports

1000 Units - AL Game of the Week - Boston over Oakland
50 Units NY Yankees +110
50 Units Minnesota over Toronto
50 Units Texas over Baltimore

[Mr. IWS]

Kyle Bales

10* NY Yankees/Burnett +110

5* LA Angels/Loux -110

Free Play Cleveland Indians @ Kansas City Royals over 9

[Mr. IWS]

3Daily Winners

Baltimore Orioles vs. Texas Rangers (MLB) - Apr 14, 2009 9:05 PM EDT
Play: Money Line: -147 Texas Rangers Play Title: Free Play

PLAY ON home favorites with a money line of -125 to -175, allowing 5.2 or more runs a game on the season in the American League, after allowing eight runs or more. Over the last three years, this system is flat-out astonishing at 22-2, 91.6 percent. The qualifying team is the Texas Rangers.

[Mr. IWS]

Dr. Bond

12* atl/mia under 191

[Mr. IWS]

EZ Winners 2-Tex Rangers

[Mr. IWS]

Seabass

300* hotlanta
100*6ers

mlb
50* ny yanks
100* cinn/mill over
100* az

[Mr. IWS]

Kelso

25 units Jazz +6.5
3 units 76er's - 4
10 units Baltimore/Texas Over
5 units St. Louis Cardinals

[Mr. IWS]

ATS Lock Club
3 Celtics

[Mr. IWS]

ATS Financial
3 Lakers

[Mr. IWS]

Lenny D's 15* AL Game of the Week (won last week)
Last week's 15* AL Game of the Week (Min over Sea) was a WINNER & just a part of an 11-8 Opening Week that included FOUR Underdog Winners! Tuesday brings former linesmaker Lenny Del Genio's latest top-rated AL contest! On Monday, Lenny cashed his #1 NBA Blowout of the Week(Utah) & Under Spurs/Warriors by 37pts!


Minnesota Twins

[Mr. IWS]

PARSONS' MLB "BIG EASY"! $MOKED BOOKS Y-DAY!
How many of you out there enjoyed Parsons' AL "Underdog" of the Month" play on the A's yesterday?! Nick has another POWERFUL "UNDERDOG" lined up for us today, except this one's been stamped as one of his legendary "BIG EASY" selections! Do not, under any circumstances, miss out on this GOLDEN INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY!



Oakland A's

[Mr. IWS]

indiancowboy


4 Unit Play. Take Over 11 between Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers (Tuesday @ 8pm est). I had already considered making this a Pod yesterday prior to the game finishing between these two teams. We have cashed on or against the Orioles and Rangers consistently this year including the winner on the O's yesterday as +115 dog. Regardless of who wins today, these two offenses put up 19 runs on the board yesterday and the pitchers today are no better than the two that took the mound yesterday. For starters, Simon is a young kid that had a 7+ era in his first outing and he faces a very good hitting team in the Rangers, in a hitter's ballpark, who come off 9-10 loss and who are itching to snap a losing streak they are currently on. On top of that, the Orioles face McCarthy who had a 5.4 era against an Indians team that is not playing well right now and struggled to pick up the win against them while walking 4 and even hitting a batter. The Orioles will not be as kind with McCarthy as they are likely to enjoy hitting in Texas just as much as they put up 10 runs on Padilla yesterday. Look for the Rangers on the bounce-back to hit Simon well, and the Orioles to hit McCarthy well who was fortunate against the Indians to get by with his control problems, but will likely not be as fortunate today. The over is 5-0 for the Rangers when they are an Underdog by this margin and the Over is 4-0 in the last 4 home games for the Rangers.

2 Unit Play. Take the Kansas City Royals RL +140 over the Cleveland Indians (Tuesday @ 8pm est). I'm not a huge fan of the RL, but we did use it for our 5* GOTW on Sunday with the Rays over the Orioles. A similar situation applies today as Davies was lights out against the Whitesox as he didn't yield a run to this team but did not pick up a win. Davies returns home to face an Indians team that although he has a 1-3 mark against, he was 1-0 against them last year. KC has been great for Davies as he has left a bit of the pressure in Atlanta and thrived in late September and looks to continue thriving after a strong scoreless first start against the Sox. The Indians lineup has not done well in the early start of the season as they are just 1-6 and although this game might be high scoring as the Indians look to give Pavano some help, Davies clearly has his stuff together as compared to Carl, who had an 81 era in his first start. Although Pavano will look better in this outing, I question how drastically an individually could have gotten better over the span of 1 start. I still believe although Pavano will not have a 81 era start, he is likely to give up about 4-5 runs in the span of 5 innings and Davies will hold the fort down. I think at +140, this is good value to take for a 2 unit wager and we will continue to make mini-plays of 2 units every now and then if we can feel like we can pad the bankroll with an additional win. It's a long season, so over the long haul it will be worth it for us. Let's take the stronger pitcher and currently the stronger team in the Royals who are 4-3 and are solid at home while the Indians continue to struggle to find an identity as they are not pitching, nor hitting well currently.

4 Unit Play. Take Philadelphia -4 over the Boston Celtics (Tuesday @ 8pm est). There is a limited number of games on the docket today, but we will take the Sixers at home against the C's. Boston has the #2 seed in the East either way and Garnett will not play. Allen is Questionable and in fact, Doc Rivers rest his starters today. Remember, Philly lost to this team by 1 point last time at home 99-100 and come off five straight losses including a loss to Toronto on the road. Obviously Philly will look to bounce-back, have some revenge, and have their starters on the floor so this game is far more important for them in many ways than Boston. The Celtics do come off an embarrassing loss to the Cavs on the road, but then again, I don't think that loss really means anything to this team, as they have already clinched and even after that loss, they plan on resting essentially everybody today to give some of their young guys some playing time. There is a similar case in Atlanta today where the Heat reserves will likely play against the Hawks as Moon, Wade and O'Neal are likely to rest. But, rather than laying that 9, we will lay the 4 here with Philly who also comes off a series of losses and has revenge here.

[Mr. IWS]

Matt Rivers FIRST 100,000* OF THE BASEBALL SEASON Plus Bonus Lock Your winners here are on:

1. 100,000? Angels
2. 50,000? Indians


1. I do understand that the Angels are not great and will miss K-Rod for sure but the Mariners are terrible without Ichiro. I don't care if Seattle has been overachieving and off to the quality start, this team is still terrible talentwise and well overvalued today.

The Mariners have very little offense without their star outfielder and Carlos Silva is awful and can implode with the best of them at the drop of a hat. Certainly I cannot promise a gem from Shane Loux as the guy is not exactly Cy Young and still has a ton to prove but in no way shape or form do I feel he is inferior to Silva and all in all the Halos are the far superior overall team.

On Sunday the Angels finished off a winning series against the Red Sox and were as close to being in a fight as a team could be when Josh Beckett threw a bit too far inside against Bobby Abreu. Baseball is not a total team type of a game, I understand that, but I don't think that comraderie the other day will hurt anything as we saw in that games' upset win over the 170 chalk Sox.

Anaheim's bullpen is far better than Seattle's even without Rodriguez closing games out. Arrodondo, Shields and Fuentes still form a quality pen and after losing JJ Putz the Mariners do not really boast all that much.

Loux probably will give up some runs today there is no doubt about it as he is an inexperienced but yet fairly old 29 year old which says something but Silva is not a guy that's good at all and could get blasted by Vlad, Kendrick, Hunter, Napoli and the visiting Angels.

Mike Scioscia's team should be giving a decent sized price and they're rerally not. I'm not complaining about it!



2. Kyle Davies just hurled an absolute gem in Chicago and the Royals are not a bad team at all but I'll take this price back and take my chances with the Indians, who when push comes to shove are still better than Kansas City.

Cleveland certainly was very slow out of the gate as they lost their first five games but with Sizemore, Hafner, Martinez, DeRosa and others the Tribe are going to be just fine when all is said and done. Eric Wedge has a squad full of talent that can definitely get to Davies. Let's face it, the former Brave is not exactly a feared hurler no matter how good that first outing was and no matter how much people say he is about to have a breakthrough season. Yes the righty has some good stuff but he also has been lit up at times and to get a price like this back with Cleveland is a no-brainer.

Carl Pavano was the opposite of Davies in that first outing as he was horrific. I am not exactly putting my full trust in Pavano as the guy is an oft injured career underachiever who may be pitching his way out of the big leagues but he also could be alright here and at this sweet enough takeback it is just too good to not give it a go.

Pavano probably will go no more than five innings but Davies will get hit and with Kerry Wood now in the Cleveland pen and believing these visitors can definitely win this game I'm all about the Indians here.

[Mr. IWS]

Beat Your Bookie

Daily Premium Hoops & Hockey Winners for Tuesday


NBA Basketball


100* Play LA Lakers (-8) over Utah (NBA)

LA Lakers are 8-1 SU after allowing 85 points or less the last game
LA Lakers are 7-0 SU vs. Utah at home the last 3 seasons
LA Lakers are 35-5 SU in all home games this season
LA Lakers are 13-4 SU vs. Northwest Division Opponents


---------------------------------------------------------------------

Other Hoops & Hockey Plays


50* Play Philadelphia (-2.5) over Boston (NBA)


No NHL Plays Today

[Mr. IWS]

Stan Lisowski---

4* Lakers
3* Over Lakers

[Mr. IWS]

teddy covers

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

balt/tx over 20* Big Ticket

[Mr. IWS]

VR
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


3 - TB
2 - Oakland
2 - Utah Jazz (Wait for higher line)
2 - Ari/Stl ov 9