3-25-09

[Mr. IWS]

::moneybag::

[Mr. IWS]

Al

At 9 pm, our selection is on the San Diego State Aztecs minus the points over St Marys.

[Mr. IWS]

Larry Ness' 15* Situational Mismatch-NBA (60% run since Feb 6)
My 15* Situational Mismatch is on the Dal Mavs at 8:35 ET. Dallas (42-28) currently holds the eighth and final playoff spot in the West but the good news is the Mavs are only 2 1/2 games out of the No. 4 seed, which comes with home-court advantage in the first round. The bad news however, is that the surging Suns (winners of five straight) are just three games behind them and looking pretty good these days. That means "taking care of business" tonight vs the Warriors, is a MUST! I like the Mavs' chances. The Warriors fell to 0-2 on their four-game road trip last night, losing 107-106 at San Antonio. It marked the team's sixth consecutive road defeat and drops them to 6-30 SU on the road this year, going an equally sad 12-22-2 ATS. Who knows what Nelson is thinking these days? He and Crawford (18.8 PPG in 48 games with GS) have been at odds all year and Crawford has missed four straight games (you tell me why?). He's NOT expected to play here either plus Biedrins (12.4-11.5) and Belinelli (8.9) are also out. Playing will be Jackson (20.9-5.2-6.5) Maggette (18.9-5.6), Ellis (17.3), Azubuike (13.5-4.8), Morrow (8.5), Watson (8.5) and Turiaf (5.7-4.4). Thats a pretty solid core of players but the Warriors rank dead-last (112.0 PPG) in defense and the Mavs, even with Howard (18.0-4.9) out, continue to play well at home. Dallas opened 0-4 at home this season but has gone 25-4 since, including taking an eight-game home winning streak into this contest. Nowitzki (25.5-8.3) leads all scorers and Terry (19.8-3.6 APG) is back in fine form after missing eight games with a broken hand. The Warriors are off a tough one-point loss at San Antonio last night plus the Mavs will be well-focused after just losing 119-110 in Oakland on March 13. Dallas has won Golden State's last three visits to the American Airlines Center by an average margin of 23.6 points and that margin may be just about right again tonight. Situational Mismatch 15* Dal Mavs.

Good Luck...Larry

Larry Ness' 15* Tourney Bailout (8-4 or 66.7% since Mar 7)
My 15* Tourney Bailoit is on Stanford at 10:00 ET. Although it was by no means 'easy.' I won a HUGE play on Stanford when it beat Oregon State 62-54 in the first round of the Pac 10 tourney on Mar 11. The Cardinal avenged two regular season losses to the Beavers in that game, outscoring them 41-26 in the second half, to win by eight (laying seven). These teams meet for the FOURTH time this year tonight, with the winner getting a berth in next week's best-of-three CBI championship series. Who'da thunk it? Stanford was a 28-win team last year (lost in the Sweet 16) but lost the 7-0 Lopez twins to the NBA plus two quality role players in Finger and Washington off that team, as well as head coach Trent Johnson to LSU. Meanwhile, Ore St was coming off a 6-25 season, including a record-setting 0-18 regular season mark in the Pac 10 (the kind of record a team DOES'T want to achieve). Stanford hired Johnny Dawkins to take over for Johnson, giving him his first-ever head coaching gig, while OSU hired the president's brother-in law, Craig Robinson. Stanford opened 10-0 in non-conference play but went just 6-12 in its Pac 10 schedule. As mentioned, the Cardinal did beat OSU in the Pac 10 tourney but then lost to Washington. As for OSU, the Beavers were just 6-10 (1-5 in the Pac 10) on the day of Obama's inauguration but that following weekend, won at Cal and Stanford, sparking a four-game winning streak. The team swept Cal and Stanford again (Feb 19-21) and sat at 13-13 with three games left but lost all three, plus its first game of the Pac 10 tourney to Stanford. However, in the "pay for play" CBI, the 13-17 Beavers got a bid. The team is very limited, with guard Haynes (14.0) being its lone consistent scoring option and he comes off the bench. The 6-11 Schatenaar (9.8-3.8) fits well into Robinson's Princeton-style "high-post offense," plus the 6-5 Seth Tarver (7.8-5.1) became the first Oregon State player to lead the Pac-10 in steals since Gary Payton in the 1989-90 season. So how did the two teams get here? Stanford has played two terrific games, routing a solid Boise St team 96-76 at home and then ending Wichita's nine-game home winning streak with a wire-to-wire 70-54 victory on Monday. The 6-8 Hill (13.6-5.7) has been the team's best player, averaging 19.5 PPG and 6.0 RPG. Senior guard Goods (16.1-3.4) has averaged 13.5 PPG and reserve guard Green (6.5) scored 19 points vs Boise and came back with nine points at Wichita. PG Johnson (6.6-4.5 APG) joins Goods in the backcourt, 6-7 swingman Fields (12.7-6.6) has been a solid player all season and the 6-8 Owens (7.0-3.5) is Hill's partner inside. OSU ended the season on an 0-4 slide and over its final three games, averaged 53.3 PPG while shooting 40.3 percent from the floor, including 31.6 percent on threes. The Beavers were able to host a first round game in the CBI (pay for play, remember) and in an 'ugly' game, beat Houston 49-45. THe Cougars, who averaged 75.8 PPG this year, shot 15-of-53 (28.3 percent and the Beavers, who shot just 17-of-44 (38.6) themselves, were able to survive. Up next was Vermont and it was an entirely different game, as the Catamounts shot 50.9 percent but the Beavers made 51.9 percent of their shots (Haynes had 19 and Schaftenaar 14-10), coming away with a 71-70 overtime win. Maybe it's just Robinson's year? His brother-in-law had a pretty good 2008 (2009 may not be as good?) but I'm not buying it. Stanford has WAY more talent and the Cardinal have played two excellent games in this tourney so far. They are familiar with OSU's style of play by now (fourth meeting!) and winning this tourney would be no small feat for Dawkins and the program. Tourney Bailout 15* Stanford.

Good Luck...Larry

Larry Ness' NBA 25* (2nd TY / won 1st!)
My 25* is on the Pho Suns at 10:35 ET. The Jazz had a season-high 12 blocks, made six steals and forced 12 turnovers in last night's 99-86 win over the Rockets. The victory pulled them within a half-game of the Northwest Division lead (12 regular season games remain for the Jazz) and snapped Houston's six-game win streak. Deron Williams (18.8-10.6 APG) had 19 points and 12 assists, Carlos Boozer (16.5-10.7) had 13 points and eight rebounds plus Mehmet Okur (17.5-7.8) scored 12 points, had six rebounds and added four blocks. Paul Millsap (13.7-8.7) filled in nicely for Boozer when he got in foul trouble and finished with 15 points, nine rebounds and three blocks. The Jazz are currently sixth in the West's playoff race. The Lakers have 'run away' from the rest of the pack for the conference's best record but the 2nd through 7th spots are separated by just 2 1/2 games. The Jazz don't get a breather tonight, traveling to Phoenix to take on the Suns. The Suns are currently "on the outside looking in" out West, trailing the 8th-place Mavs by three games. However, after losing six consecutive games from Mar 3-12, the Suns have suddenly won five straight, giving the team some hope. The winning streak began with a 106-95 home win over the Thunder and over their last four wins, the Suns have averaged an amazing 131.5 PPG. They've played the last three games without Barbosa (14.3) and of course, Stoudemire (21.4-8.1) has been sidelined since late-February. Shaq's (18.2-8.6) had a remarkable season and is joined ion the starting lineup these days by two small forwards, Hill (11.2-5.0) and Barnes (10.3-5.3). Richardson (17.5-9.6) and Nash (15.3-9.6 APG) start in the backcourt. The team is also getting minutes (and production) from Tucker (4.9), Dudley (4.5) and Amundson (4.1-3.3) these days. However, it's been Shaq (21.0 PPG) and Richardson (28.3-8.0) and Nash (16.8-6.0 APG) who have "led the way" the last four games. Utah has been a different team since Carlos Boozer returned to the lineup after missing 44 games due to a leg injury on Feb 23. They've played 14 times since then, going 11-3 (Boozer missed one game, so they are 10-3 with him in the lineup). After taking three games to "get up to speed," Boozer's been his old self, averaging 17.2 PPG and 11.5 RPG over his last 10 outings. However, Boozer or no Boozer, here's the rub! The Jazz have one of the league's best home records (30-6) but they're just 14-20 on the road. More notably, only ONE of those wins have come over a team that currently owns a winning record, the team's 93-80 victory in Philadelphia on Nov 11. Since Boozer has returned, the Jazz are 0-3 on the road vs winning teams, losing 100-93 in Atlanta, 140-129 in Miami and 105-87 in Orlando. In particular, Utah has been especially bad when facing its West competitors in the playoff hunt this year, going 0-8 SU on the road against the top nine teams in the West. Coming off a tough game last night with the Rockets can't help and the Suns should have little trouble "extending a margin" tonight against the Jazz. 25* Pho Suns.

Good Luck...Larry

Ben Burns

Golden State Warriors at Dallas Mavericks
Prediction: Dallas Mavericks

I cashed a big ticket with the Warriors when they defeated the Mavericks a couple of weeks ago. However, that was at Oakland and the Warriors were well-rested. Tonight's spot is much more difficult.

For starters, the Warriors on the road instead of at home. That's noteworthy as they're an ugly 6-30 SU and 13-22-1 ATS, when playing away from home. That includes a money-burning 7-18 ATS (3-22 SU) mark, when they've played a road game with an over/under line of 210 or greater.

Additionally, the Warriors come off an extremely hard-fought loss at San Antonio last night. This is tougher than a "typical" back to back spot though. That's because they'll also be playing their sixth game in nine nights. That's an exhausting stretch, particularly a banged-up Warriors team that runs up and down the floor so much.

Conversely, the Mavericks haven't played since way back on Friday. Note that the Mavs are 17-12 ATS on the season, when facing a team which defeated them in their previous meeting. They're also 10-5 ATS their last 15 games against teams which allow greater than 99 points per game. Additionally, the Mavs are 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS the last five times they hosted the Warriors. They won those five games by an average of 20 points, with each of the last three meetings here resulting in double-digit victories. They should definitely be the "fresher" team tonight and that should lead to another double-digit victory. Consider laying the points.

Wayne Root

Chairman- Orlando Magic
Millionaire- Kentucky
No Limit- San Diego St

[Mr. IWS]

Dr Bob

one Wednesday Best Bet.

Rotation #679 Golden State (+10) 2-Stars at +9 or more