3-2-09

[Mr. IWS]

::moneybag::

[Mr. IWS]

Brandon Lang
Monday ...

25-Dime The Citadel

[Mr. IWS]

BURNS NBA

Basketball (NBA)

UNDER dallas/okc

Game: Dallas Mavericks vs. Oklahoma City Thunder Game Time: 3/2/2009 8:05:00 PM Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on Dallas and Oklahoma City to finish UNDER the total. The Mavericks saw last night's home game vs. Toronto finish above the total. However, I'm expecting a lower-scoring affair for tonight's road affair at Oklahoma City. These teams just played a high-scoring (110-108) game against each other four nights ago, at Dallas. However, that score was deceiving as 28 points were scored in overtime. That means that only 190 were scored in regulation and a closer look shows that the teams had combined for only 133 points through the first three quarters. The earlier meeting, also at Dallas but back in December, slipped below the total with 202 combined points. The Mavs have been a profitable 'under' team on the road all season and that's certainly been the case recently. The UNDER is a perfect 4-0 their last four road games with their most recent two road games finishing with only 169 and 179 combined points. For the season, the UNDER is now 18-11 when the Mavs have played away from Dallas. Note that the UNDER is 8-4 the last 12 times that the Mavericks played the second of back to back games. The UNDER has also gone 12-3 the last 15 times that the Mavs played a road game with a total ranging from 200 to 204.5, including 4-1 this season. Additionally, we find the UNDER at 4-1 the last five times that the Mavs were listed as road favorites in the 3.5 to six range. Meanwhile, the Thunder have seen the UNDER go a profitable 6-1 when listed as home underdogs in the 3.5 to six range. I expect those stats to improve as tonight's final combined score stays below what I believe to be a generous number. *Blue Chip
MIAMI

Game: Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Miami Heat Game Time: 3/2/2009 7:35:00 PM Prediction: Miami Heat Reason: I'm taking the points with MIAMI. These teams split a pair of games just after Christmas with the Heat covering the spread in each game. The Cavs won by seven at Cleveland. The Heat came back two nights later and won by nine points when the teams faced each other here at Miami. With the schedule strongly in its favor, I expect the home team to have the advantage again this evening. While the Heat had yesterday off, Cleveland played a big ESPN game at Atlanta. That worked out nicely, as the Cavs won (didn't cover) but were tested the entire way, with the game being decided in the final seconds. In other words, the stars were forced to log a lot of time - Lebron was on the floor for 44 minutes. Note that the Cavs are now a money-burning 9-16 ATS the last 25 times that they were listed as road favorites in the -3.5 to -6 range. Unlike many teams, Cleveland has actually played quite well when playing the second of back to back games this season. This is more than just a back to back spot though, as the Cavs are also playing their fourth road game in the past five days and fifth game in seven days, which is as gruelling as it gets in the NBA. Don't be surprised if "fatigue" becomes a factor. The Heat came up just short of covering the spread in their last game, winning by five, as six point favorites, vs. the Knicks. That was the type of victory a team can really build some positive momentum from, as they rallied from a big second half deficit, outscoring the Knicks by a 37-17 margin in the fourth quarter. Dwayne Wade took control, scoring 46 points while also contributing 10 assists and eight rebounds. Note that the Heat, who allowed the Knicks to score 115 points, are a profitable 10-2 ATS on the season after allowing its previous opponent to score 105 or more points. I expect the Heat, 8-2 ATS against teams from the Central, to be the "fresher" team as they build off Saturday's win with a huge effort here, moving to 4-0 ATS the last four games in this series. *Eastern Conf. GOW

[Mr. IWS]

BURNS NCAA

Basketball (NCAA)

NOTRE DAME

Game: Villanova vs. Notre Dame Game Time: 3/2/2009 7:00:00 PM Prediction: Notre Dame Reason: I'm laying the small number with NOTRE DAME. Both teams come off damaging losses and both could really use a victory tonight. The Irish were "expected" to lose though, as they were underdogs at Connecticut. Conversely, the Wildcats really delivered a "stinker," as they were upset at home by Georgetown, a team which has had trouble beating anyone lately. Off that defeat, many of the betting public will be quick to back Nova here. However, that loss revealed that all was not as rosy for the Wildcats as many had previously thought. Its also worth noting that the Wildcats are just 8-14 ATS the last 22 times that they were coming off a loss vs. a conference opponent. Yes, the Irish suffered through a tough stretch a few weeks ago. However, starting with their huge 90-57 win over Louisville, they've won four of their last six with the only two losses both coming on the road and vs. top tier teams. After the loss at UConn, star guard Kyle McAlarney had this to say of his team's chances to make the Big Dance: "I think we still have a shot (at the NCAA tournament). We've been recovering from losses from this all year. This isn't a game where a loss knocks us out. A win would have propelled us, but we can still recover from this." Look for McAlarney, Harangody and co., who won by 10 at Philly last year, to bounce back with a huge effort, covering the small number and improving to 11-7 ATS the last 18 times that they were favored by six points or less. *main event

[Mr. IWS]

PPP

3 elon
3 furman
3 vill
3 miami
3 dallas

[Mr. IWS]

Dr. Bob
Monday College Best Bet
**Citadel (-6) over GEORGIA SOUTHERN
04:30 PM Pacific - Rotation 521
Georgia Southern was a bad team to begin with and the Eagles are even worse now due to an injury to their leading scorer Willie Powers (out since January 10th) and due to the suspensions of their best overall player Julian Allen and solid contributor Antoine Johnson (as well as backup F Trumaine Pearson). Allen, Johnson and Pearson have been out the last 8 games and Georgia Southern has lost by an average margin of 12 points in those games against a schedule of teams that is a combined 4 points worse than The Citadel on average. The Citadel struggled early in the season, but they improved significantly when freshman F John Brown was inserted into the rotation in January. Brown has averaged 7.9 rebounds per game while making 58% of his shots in 18 games as part of the rotation and you can see by those numbers why the Bulldogs have 14-4 in those 18 games (13-4 ATS). The Citadel is coming off a loss to Wofford on Saturday, but they should bounce back today on the road against a horrible Georgia Southern team. The Citadel is 11-0-1 ATS on the road this season and my ratings favor the Bulldogs by 10 ½ points. I’ll take The Citadel in a 2-Star Best Bet at -6 points or less.

Monday NBA Opinion
OKLAHOMA CITY (+6) over Dallas
Rotation #508 – 5:05 pm Pacific
In Saturday’s analysis of the Thunder I mentioned that I thought that Oklahoma City would be better without leading scorer Kevin Durant because of how much better the team is defensively when he is not on the floor, which more than makes up for the lost offense when he isn’t playing. That certainly was the case on Saturday as the Thunder’s good defense lead to a 99-92 win at Memphis as a 7 ½ point dog. Oklahoma City also nearly won at Dallas, losing 108-110 as a 9 point dog, in the game in which Durant was injured and played just 8 minutes, so it’s pretty clear that my hypothesis that the Thunder are better without Durant may be true. Durant is still out and the oddsmakers continue to adjust the wrong way for his absence, but I’ll resist making Oklahoma City a Best Bet in this game since Jeff Green is also out. Green is worth a couple of points and the Thunder should play at their usual level with Green out (a negative) and Durant out (a positive), so there is still some value in siding with Oklahoma City as a big home dog against an unrested Mavericks team that beat Toronto last night night. My ratings favor the Mavs by just 2 points in this game with both Durant and Green out and Oklahoma City is 15-2 ATS in their last 17 home games. I would have played the Thunder as a Best Bet if not for a negative 41-95-3 ATS general situation going against them, but I’ll still lean with the Thunder at +6 points in this game since the line value is more significant than the general situation going against Oklahoma City.

Monday College Opinion
Boise State (+6) over NEW MEXICO STATE
Rotation #513 – 6 pm Pacific
Boise State has lost their last 3 games, but the Broncos have generally performed well after a loss under coach Greg Graham (48-30-1 ATS, including 27-15-1 ATS as a dog or pick) and they are 5-2 ATS after 3 or more consecutive losses. Boise also applies to a solid 111-43-2 ATS road bounce-back situation but the fair line on this game is 6 ½ points and the line has come down from +6 ½ to +6. I’m not going to give up the line value to make the Broncos a Best Bet, but I’ll lean with them at +6 or more and I’d take Boise State in a 2-Star Best Bet at +7 points or more.