3-1-09

[Mr. IWS]

::moneybag::

[Mr. IWS]

Brandon Lang Sunday ... 20-Dime Louisville
5-Dime Florida
5-Dime Duquesne

FREE - Rockets (See daily video for your analysis)

Analysis due back by 11 a.m. eastern

NOTE: Solid. Rock solid.

With exception of the Villanova no show early Saturday and the James Madison implosion, my other 4 Saturday selections were as solid as it gets or as I always say, right side of the game.

Lsu outright. Florida State led wire to wire although they made us sweat a little down the stretch. Rice almost won outright as a 9-point dog and Virginia Tech just ran out of gas.

This month of March is about getting back to right side of more games than the wrong side. It's about more top play winners than top play losses. It's about perfect money management and discipline.

It a nutshell, it's all about winning at a level you have never seen from me.

I have waited for this month to get here like never before. I can't wait for the conference tourney's to get here next week and the Big Dance 2 weeks later.

I am predicting my biggest March ever. Bigger than anything I have ever done before. Mark it down. Write it down. File it away and you just wait and see where you are at after I bang home the National championship winner in April.

I hit the championship game between Oklahoma/Florida. I hit the Super bowl. I will hit the College championship winner as well.

First things first. A 2nd straight winning day. Get March off to a fantastic start. Buckle down for the winningest night you have ever had.

Enjoy your Sunday.

[Mr. IWS]

BURNS NCAA

Basketball (NCAA)

UNDER louisville/marquette

Game: Marquette vs. Louisville Game Time: 3/1/2009 12:00:00 PM Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on Louisville and Marquette to finish UNDER the total. Much like Villanova yesterday, Marquette enters this game off back to back high-scoring games and averaging a ton of points. However, that doesn't mean that they'll be able to put up big numbers here again this afternoon - not against this defense. Like the Wildcats, who managed a mere 54 yesterday, I expect the Golden Eagles to have some trouble scoring at their regular pace today. Note that the Golden Eagles will be without playmaker Dominic James, injured for the season last time out. While Maurice Acker should do a fine job, James' loss is still significant. Pitino knows that the Golden Eagles are better on defense than advertised, stating: "They're very tenacious defensively. If you put the ball down in traffic against them they're going to strip it." Of course, the Cardinals have one of the best defenses around. They held Georgetown to 58 last time out after limiting Cincy to 63 in their previous game. They're holding opponents to 39.4% shooting on the season and to an average of only 60.3 points per game on this floor. The UNDER is 5-1 the last six games in this series with all six games producing less than 140 points. Speaking of 140, note that the Cardinals have seen the UNDER go a profitable 17-9 the last 26 times they played a game with an over/under line in the 140s. Look for this afternoon's game to also finish below the generous number. *Annihilator



BURNS NBA

Basketball (NBA)

MINNESOTA

Game: Houston Rockets vs. Minnesota Timberwolves Game Time: 3/1/2009 7:05:00 PM Prediction: Minnesota Timberwolves Reason: I'm taking the points with MINNESOTA. I played on the Rockets on Thursday and they upset the Cavs. Yesterday, I played against the Rockets and they were beaten by the Bulls. That wasn't a "typical" loss either as Houston blew a double-digit fourth quarter lead. Most will expect the Rockets to bounce back from that disappointing defeat with a blowout victory. However, those types of demoralizing losses can be tough to bounce back from, not to mention both physically and mentally exhausting. Note that Yao Ming was visibly winded running up and down the court at times in last night's game. With last night's loss, the Rockets are now 1-6 ATS their last seven games away from Houston, including an 0-4 SU/ATS mark their last four. Note that their only two victories in that seven road stretch came by only five combined points. As I mentioned yesterday, those road losses weren't exactly against elite teams either as the Rockets lost at Milwaukee, Memphis, New York, Indiana and now Chicago. They won by only two at Oklahoma City and by three at Detroit. Including the losses at Memphis and New York, note that the Rockets are 0-2 ATS over the last month when playing the second of back to back games. They're also a money-burning 11-20-1 ATS on the season, when facing a team with a losing record and an ugly 3-7 ATS when listed as road favorites in the minus 3.5 to six range. The T-Wolves, who are playing with "double-revenge," are off a poor offensive effort which saw them manage only 82 points vs. Portland. However, we can cut the offense a bit of slack as they'd previously reached triple-digits in scoring in seven straight games. Look for the T-Wolves to be the "fresher" team as the bounce back with a much better effort and improve to 6-3 ATS after scoring 85 points or less in their previous game. *Western Conf. Best Bet





ATLANTA

Game: Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Atlanta Hawks Game Time: 3/1/2009 8:05:00 PM Prediction: Atlanta Hawks Reason: I'm taking the points with ATLANTA. Even most casual fans know that Cleveland has a better record than Atlanta this season. However, many would be surprised to know that Atlanta's home record is better than Cleveland's road record. In fact, its not even close! While the Cavaliers are 19-11 outside of Cleveland, the Hawks are a much better 20-6 when playing here at Atlanta. Not surprisingly, the home team has won both meetings in this season's series. While the Cavs had yesterday off, they were off back to back games against tough Texas opponents the previous two days (Hawks haven't played b2b games in more than 10 days) and they've got another game on deck tomorrow. That's worth noting as we find the Cavs at just 1-5 ATS (2-4 SU) in 2009 when playing the front end of a back to back situation. The Hawks, who have finally gotten heathy, score more than 100 points per game on this floor, while shooting 47.4%. They're also coming off a dominant defensive effort, which saw them limit Miami to a mere 83 points. Note that they're 6-3 SU/ATS on the season after holding their previous opponent to fewer than 85 points. The Hawks have also thrived in the underdog role. Including the earlier "upset" of the Cavs here, they're a profitable 17-9 ATS when getting points, including 2-0 ATS when listed as a home underdog in the 6.5 to 9 point range. Currently in fourth place, this is the Hawks chance to again show that they can compete with the "Big 3" in the East. I expect them to respond with a massive effort, continuing their excellent play on this court. *Main Event




OVER celtics/pistons

Game: Detroit Pistons vs. Boston Celtics Game Time: 3/1/2009 1:00:00 PM Prediction: over Reason: I'm playing on Boston and Detroit to finish OVER the total. These teams have played a trio of low-scoring games against each other this season. Those results, combined with the recent results of both teams, have helped to provide us with a very low over/under number to work with. While the over/under number is a few points lower than it was for the earlier meeting here at Boston, I expect this afternoon's game to see significantly more scoring. As you're probably aware, the Celtics are currently without Kevin Garnett. While "The Big Ticket" is a strong offensive player, Boston has proven it can score without him in the lineup. In four games without KC in the lineup, the Celts are averaging greater than 109 points. Replacing his excellent defense isn't as easy. While the Pistons are likely to be without Iverson, they too have proven capable of scoring without him in the lineup. Richard Hamilton started in his place last game and had 31 points. The Pistons would finish with 93. While that's still not that many, it was more points than they had scored in any of their previous five games. Its true that the Celtics have seen each of their last three games dip below the total. However, a closer look shows that those games averaged greater than 192 points and that all three of them finished with a minimum of 184. Additionally, its worth noting that the OVER is 5-2 the last seven times that the Celts were coming off three or more consecutive games which stayed below the total and 16-10 their last 26 in that situation. While Detroit road games are averaging "only" 187 points this season, games here at Boston have averaged a healthy 199.1 points per game. Not surprisingly, 18 of 29 games here have finished above the total, including seven of 11 when the champs have been favored in the 6.5 to 9 point range. Look for those numbers to improve this afternoon as the final combined score makes its way above the low number. *Blue Chip

[Mr. IWS]

Wayne Root

Chairman- Tennessee
Millionaire- Rutgers
MoneyMaker- Oregon

[Mr. IWS]

Private Players Pitt
(3*)Kansas
(3*)Cincinnati
(3*)Denver
(3*)Boston Celtics Under

[Mr. IWS]

Big als NBA HIGH ROLLER OVER/UNDER WINNER
UNDER SAN ANTINO/PORTLAND GAME
NCAA HOOPS ROADKILL WINNER WISCONSIN

[Mr. IWS]

Big Al

1* Spurs under 181.5
1* St. Joes
3* Oregon
3* Wisc.
3* Louisville

[Mr. IWS]

Dr. Bob
Sunday College Opinion
ILLINOIS (-1) over Michigan State
Rotation #866 – 1 pm Pacific
Michigan State applies to a negative 24-72-1 ATS road letdown situation tonight and Illinois is 30-9 ATS in home games following a home victory (14-5 ATS under coach Bruce Weber), but my ratings favor the Spartans by a point in this game, so I’ll just lean with Illinois at -1 or better in this game. I’d take Illinois in a 2-Star Best Bet at +1 or more.

[Mr. IWS]

Dr Bob

one Sunday Best Bet.

Rotation #828 Kansas (-4) 3-Stars at -5 or less, 2-Stars at -5 1/2 or -6.


3 Star Selection
***KANSAS (-4) over Missouri
11:00 AM Pacific - Rotation 828
Missouri has beaten up on teams at home, but the Tigers have struggled away from home against quality teams, losing by 4 to Xavier and by 16 points to Illinois on neutral floors while dropping road games at Nebraska by 5 points and at Kansas State by 16 points. Missouri did win by 2 points at Oklahoma State and by 4 points at Texas, but their 6 games away from home against good teams have resulted in an average score of 70-76 and those games were 7 ½ points easier on average than this game at Kansas. Struggling on the road against decent teams is nothing new for the Tigers under coach Mike Anderson, whose team is 9-21 ATS in road or neutral games against teams with a win percentage of greater than .550, including 5-15 ATS if their opponent is coming off a win (1-5 ATS this season). Kansas coach Bill Self had an inexperienced team at the beginning of the season but the Jayhawks are much improved and playing at a consistently high level now. After an up and down November and December the Jayhawks are 12-1 straight up and 10-2-1 ATS in Big 12 play with their only loss being a 2 point spread covering loss at Missouri. Kansas applies to a decent 82-27-6 ATS home revenge situation at -5 or less and Missouri applies to a negative 16-55-2 ATS subset of a negative 74-153-9 ATS road letdown situation that is based on their long win streak. My ratings using all games for both teams this season would favor Kansas by 4 ½ points, but using only games for each team against quality opposition results in a prediction of Kansas by 7 points and using conference games only would favor the Jayhawks by 7 ½ points. I’ll take Kansas in a 3-Star Best Bet at -5 points or less and for 2-Stars at -5 ½ or -6 points.


Sunday College Opinion
ILLINOIS (-1) over Michigan State
Rotation #866 – 1 pm Pacific
Michigan State applies to a negative 24-72-1 ATS road letdown situation tonight and Illinois is 30-9 ATS in home games following a home victory (14-5 ATS under coach Bruce Weber), but my ratings favor the Spartans by a point in this game, so I’ll just lean with Illinois at -1 or better in this game. I’d take Illinois in a 2-Star Best Bet at +1 or more.

[Mr. IWS]

Scott Sprietzer

Top
Celtics
Rockets
Florida
Kansas
Illinois
Reg
Cavaliers
Ohio

[Mr. IWS]

Larry Ness
REASON FOR PICK: My 7* Daytime Delight is on Ohio U minus the points over Buffalo.





Larry Ness
REASON FOR PICK: My 7* Revenge Rout is on Kansas minus the points over Missouri at 2.00 ET





Larry Ness
REASON FOR PICK: My 7* TV Game of the week is on Florida minus the points over Tennessee at 2.00 ET


My NBA Weekend Wipeout Winner is on the Dal Mavericks (7.5*) at 9:05 ET

Larry Ness
REASON FOR PICK: My Oddmaker's Error is on the Ind Pacers (8*) at 7:05 ET.

Larry Ness
REASON FOR PICK: My Late Breaking Play is on Oregon (7.5*) at 10:00 ET