2-21-09

[Mr. IWS]

BURNS NCAA

Basketball (NCAA)

UNDER boston college/miami

Game: Boston College vs. Miami (FL) Game Time: 2/21/2009 12:00:00 PM Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on Boston College and Miami to finish UNDER the total. Writeup to follow.
TEXAS

writeup to follow
UTEP

Game: Memphis vs. Texas-El Paso Game Time: 2/21/2009 4:00:00 PM Prediction: Texas-El Paso Reason: I'm taking the points with UTEP. The Tigers are having another great season and by now almost everyone knows about their remarkable winning streak in conference play. With all due respect to the talented and well-coached Tigers, I won't be "shocked" if that winning streak finally comes to an end this afternoon. At the very least, I expect Memphis, which has the #2 CUSA team (UAB) on deck, to have its hands full. That wouldn't be a first, as the Miners have played the Tigers tough each of the last two seasons. Two years ago, they hung with the Tigers almost the entire way, eventually losing by 11. Last year, playing on the road and facing a Memphis team which was #1 at the time, the Miners actually had the lead with four minutes remaining, eventually losing by six - as 21 point underdogs. Having played so well at Memphis last season, the Miners come in full of confidence. Of course, it helps that they've also won three straight and five of their last six. They're averaging a respectable 76.2 points per game (almost exactly what Memphis scores) on the season, including 78.7 here at home. (The Tigers are averaging 71 on the road.) The defense admittedly isn't in the same class as the Tigers' defense, which has been among the best in the country. However, UTEP did play very well on that side of the ball last time out, limiting Rice to 58 points. Note that the Miners are 3-0 SU/ATS this season after holding their previous opponent to less than 60 points. This is a huge game for the Miners. They've got four players from the Memphis area on their team and UTEP coach Tony Barbee played for John Calipari at Massachusetts and was his assistant at Memphis for several years. The Miners are an outstanding 11-3 ATS the last 14 times that they were underdogs of greater than eight points and I look for them to improve on those numbers here. *"Shocker"
SIENA

Game: Northern Iowa vs. Siena Game Time: 2/21/2009 3:00:00 PM Prediction: Siena Reason: I'm laying the points with SIENA. I successfully played on a MAAC team (Niagara) against a MVC team (Illinois State) yesterday. Although the Missouri Valley is typically considered to be the stronger of the two conferences, I felt that the situation strongly favored the Purple Eagles. Not only were they playing on their homecourt with the greatest player in franchise history on hand, but I pointed out that they were catching Illinois-State off a series off big games and with its two biggest games of the season on deck. For some of the same reasons, I feel that situation favors the MAAC team again this afternoon. Like the Redbirds yesterday, Northern Iowa is in the thick of a heated race for the top spot in the MVC. Off an extremely disappointing loss (which may be tough to recover from) in their last game, the Panthers are now 12-4 in Conference play. That ties them for the top spot and puts them one game ahead of Illinois-State, who will they face in their next game. With that game now taking on added importance, it will be easy to get caught looking ahead. Conversely, much like Niagara yesterday, Siena isn't involved in a race for the top spot in the Conference. That's because they've already wrapped up the top spot, long ago. Even though they do face Niagara in their next game, that won't affect Siena's place in the conference standings. That should mean a little less "looking ahead," than we might have seen, if that game was for first place. In addition to being fully focused on the task at hand and playing at home, the Saints are a really good team, clearly the class of their league. UNI head coach Ben Jacobson had this to say: "They're a very good team that throws a lot of talented athletes at you..." You may recall what the Saints did in last year's tournament, knocking off a solid Vanderbilt team by 21 points. This year's team brought back basically all the same players and is determined for more success in March. The Saints didn't fare as well in their earlier non-conference games as they would have liked and they'll be looking to go all out to make a statement here, particularly after watching what Niagara did yesterday. The Saints are 13-0 at home on the season, outscoring opponents by more than a dozen points. I expect them to keep that perfect record in tact, picking up the cover along the way. *Bracket Buster GOY

[Mr. IWS]

BURNS NBA

Basketball (NBA)

UNDER jazz/hornets

Game: New Orleans Hornets vs. Utah Jazz Game Time: 2/21/2009 9:05:00 PM Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on the Hornets and Jazz to finish UNDER the total. These teams saw their earlier meeting finish above the total, a 116-90 Utah victory on 1/9. Note that game had an over/under line of just 192.5. This evening's total is several points higher, providing us with plenty of room to work with. Even including that result, the UNDER is still a profitable 12-6-2 the last 20 meetings between these clubs, including 4-1-1 the last six. Prior to the 116-90 game, their previous meeting had finished with a score of 77-66, finishing below the total by more than 65 points! I successfully played on Utah to finish below the total on Thursday. The Jazz held the Celtics to a mere 85 points and the final score stayed below the number by 25 or more. At the time I noted that Utah's recent high-scoring games had come against "defensively-challenged teams" and also that the Jazz had gotten Andrei Kirilenko back in their last game. I went on to say "...is noteworthy as Kirilenko is an excellent defender and his return makes the Jazz stronger on that side of the ball..." The Hornets saw last night's game at LA finish above the total. However, that was a tough beat for 'under' bettors, as the game only had 86 points at halftime. Even with a high-scoring second half, if not for overtime, it still would have fallen below the total. The Hornets tend to clamp down defensively when facing a team which defeated them in their previous meeting. In fact, they've seen the UNDER go a profitable 61-36-2 the last 99 times that they were attempting to avenge an earlier loss, including a 10-6-1 mark in that role this season. The last time that they played the second of back to back games (2/9 at Memphis) the game finished with only 165 points, (85-80) falling below the total by 20+. Look for this evening's final score to also prove lower than most are expecting. *total of the week.

[Mr. IWS]

BRANDON LANG LOST AGAIN YESTERDAY AND HAS HAD 10 LOSING DAYS IN A ROW FADE AWAY:

Lang has
30 dimeS North Dakota State
5 dime Butler, Manhattan, and UNLV.

[Mr. IWS]

Scott Spreitzer:
5* OK ST
4.5* UT ST
4* WYO
3* GTWN
3* RICH
3* N TEX
3* TEX
3* BUCK
3* AKRON

[Mr. IWS]

Wayne Root

Chairman- Vanderbilt
Millionaire- Air Force Mtn West GOY
No Limit- Colorado
Insiders- Washington St
Billionaire- Texas Tech
Perfect Play- Texas

[Mr. IWS]

Dr Bob

4 Daytime Best Bets.

Rotation #521 Rhode Island (-18) 2-Stars at -18 or less.
Rotation #567 Florida International (+14) 2-Stars at 13 or more.
Rotation #645 Cleveland State (pick) 3-Stars at -1 or better, 2-Stars up to -2.
Rotation #659 Utah State (+4) 2-Stars at +4 or more, 3-Stars at +5.

[Mr. IWS]

AL 5*

At 3 pm, our selection is on the New Mexico Lobos minus the points over San Diego State, as UNM falls into my favorite college basketball system which is 72-28 ATS since 1990. These two teams met a month ago in southern California, and the Aztecs won 81-76. But New Mexico is a much better home team, than road team, as UNM is 86-14 straight up its last 100 homers, and has covered over 60% of those games, including 32-12 ATS vs. a foe off a win. This season, New Mexico has won 12 of 14 at home, including all five games vs. Mountain West opponents. Finally, the Lobos are 19-6 ATS their last 25 vs. SDSU. 5* Mountain West Game of the Year on New Mexico. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

[Mr. IWS]

Big Al

3 - Spurs
1 - Hornets
5 - New Mexico
3 - Hoosiers
3 - G Town
1 - Texas
1 - North Texas
1 - UNLV

[Mr. IWS]

Larry Ness' 20* Bracket Buster GOY (80% run with 'high-end' plays since Feb 12)
My 20* Bracket Buster GOY is on Idaho at 10:00 ET. Bob Braswell is in his 13th year at Northridge and his Matadors won 20 games last year. However, three starters are gone from that team, including the 6-6 Heard (11.4-5.5) and the 6-8 Chitwood (10.7-4.1). CS-Northridge enters this Bracket Buster game at Idaho 12-11 overall but at 8-4 in Big West play, finds itself tied with Long Beach St for the conference lead. Meanwhile at Idaho, the Vandals are 121-13 (6-6 in the WAC) and likely going nowhere under first-year head coach Don Verlin. While all that's true, I have not 'painted the entire picture' of these two schools. Senior guard Deon Tresvant (13.3) led the Matadors in scoring last year and was leading them in scoring this year as well, until running into some legal problems after 12 games (he's out for the year). Then, just recently, senior PG Josh ******* (10.2-6.0 APG) was injured in an auto accident and also will be lost for the year. Playing their first game without ******* on Wedsday night, Northridge shot just 35.8 percent (4-of-16 on threes) in a 73-51 loss at Cal-Irvine, which is just 9-17 on the year. As for the Vandals, their 12-13 (6-6 in the WAC) record may not seem like a big deal but it is in Moscow. The Vandals won just eight games last year and over the previous four years combined, had tallied just 24 wins! This may be Don Verlin's first head coaching job but he's been at the side of Stew Morrill for the last 15 years (first at Colo St and then at Utah St). Morrill, of course, entered this season having led Utah State to NINE straight 20-win seasons, taking the Aggies to nine straight postseasons (five NCAAs). The Aggies are 25-2 and headed to their 10th consecutive postseason nthis year. I guess Verlin's learned a few things under "the master." Four starters from last year are gone (good riddance!), as Verlin has been able to weave a seven-man rotation out of TY's team. Washington St transfer Hopson (16.6-5.1-5.6) is a do-everything guard who has scored in double digit in 24 of the team's 25 games. Fellow guard Watson (10.8-3.8) is a CC transfer who joins Hopson in the backcourt along with seniors Morris (5.3) and Simmons (4.9). The 6-10 Jefferson (8.8-3.9), and the 6-6 Wiley (8.6-5.7) return from last year, joined by 6-7 JUCO de Souza (8.3-2.8). Northridge can counter with the 6-9 Townsend (11.5-8.6) and the 6-8 Galick (10.0-6.1) up front but with the loss of three frontcourt starters from last year, can hardly match up. With both Tresvant and now ******* out in the backcourt, Haynes (9.9), Daniels (7.3) and Mels 96.6) are in trouble on the perimeter against Hopson, Watson and Co. This Bracket Buster home game is a big deal in Moscow, as a win gets the team to .500 at 13-13 (remember this program has averaged six wins per season over the last four years). The team's 56-54 win at Boise St on Wednesday night gave the Vandals a 2-0 sweep of their in-state rivals for the first time in 10 years and the team as well as its fans are energized. Meanwhile, Northridge must travel to Moscow (what a reward!) with the loss of ******* fresh in their minds and four more conference games ahead (remember, the Matadors are still tied for the Big West lead). Idaho is 9-3 SU at home this year and back in late November, beat a Cal-Irvine team that just beat CS-Northridge earlier this week 73-51, by the score of 101-47. Bracket Buster GOY 20* Idaho.

Good Luck...Larry

[Mr. IWS]

Spreitzer 25*

Texas