2-13-09

[Mr. IWS]

ATS Sports Club
February 13, 2009

Soccer:

France Ligue 2:

Tours vs. Bastia over 2

AC Ajaccio vs. Vannes OC over 2

Italy Serie B:

Sassuolo vs. Triestina over 2

German 2 Bundesliga:

RW Oberhausen vs. St. Pauli over 2.5

[Mr. IWS]

Insider Sports Report
4* Butler -12.5 over Illinois-Chicago (NCAAB)
Range: -10.5 to -14.5
3* Rider -9 over Saint Peters (NCAAB)
Range: -7.5 to -11

[Mr. IWS]

Las Vegas Sport Picks

NCAA:

1* Nova +4

NHL:

1* Montreal/Colorado over 5.5
2* Boston/New Jersey under 5.5

[Mr. IWS]

Handicapper: Nite Owl Sports
Sport: College Basketball
Game: Saint Peter Peacocks @ Rider - Friday February 13, 2009 8:00 pm
Pick: 2 units ATS: Saint Peter Peacocks +9.5 (-110)



This St Peter's team is an astute sports capper's dream when playing on the road as a "big dog," as they are today at Rider. They sneak up on heavily favored, unfocused opponents in these games, because of their crappy 4-10 conference record, but in "our world" of point spreads, line value and "covers," they are like an ATM machine when playing in this preferred role, where they are 6-1 ATS in their 7 conf road games TY (all as dogs of +6>), not incl their early December loss at Fairfield, when they were playing only their sixth game of the season and had not yet "gelled." And if we limit their record as conf road dogs to those games in a point spread range of 6-12 points, the ATS range for this game, Peacocks have a 4-0 ATS record, with an average MOL (margin of loss) of just two points! The only negative trend stat that we see for St Peter’s in this game is that they are coming off a SU win in their last game (a win at Canisius as 6 point dogs), which puts them in a post-win mode, where they are just 1-2-1 ATS TY (compared to 9-3 ATS off a SU loss).

Contrast to Rider, who already beat Peacocks TY (by 11 on a “neutral” court at the Pru Center in Newark, NJ), is off a couple of wins, including a major upset of conf leader Siena, and cannot possibly be very motivated for this game. But looking at that earlier game between these two, we notice that Rider was up by 22 at HT, and then coasted the rest of the way. That, plus the above mentioned fact that Peacocks are off a win rather than a loss, limits this pick to two units. But Rider is just 2-3 ATS TY as a conf HF, with an average MOV of just two points in those five games, which won't get it done against this huge spread. Moreover, the road team is 6-2-2 ATS in the last 10 of this series, and St Peter's is 2-1-1 ATS in its last 4 visits to Trenton to play Rider, with an average MOL of just two points in those five games.

So take the generous points here, and get ready to make a stop at the ATM for a DEPOSIT next time, not a w/d.

[Mr. IWS]

kelso BB
50 units Cornell -15
5 units Loy Md -2.5

[Mr. IWS]

jim fiest
5* villanova

[Mr. IWS]

goldengreek is on a distinguished road

Default
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

BobbyClarkeSports... (7-6) -1550

NCAA: Loyola-Chicago/Valparaiso under 124.5 Wager 770 to win 700
West Virginia -4.5 Wager 770 to win 700
Loyalo-Maryland -2 Wager 770 to win 700

BONUS: Rider -10

[Mr. IWS]

Bob Balfe

NCAA Basketball
Illinois Chicago +13 over Butler

[Mr. IWS]

teddy june

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
west virgina

[Mr. IWS]

Seabass:

Steam 100 is Cornell

50 Iona
30 Columbia, Nova under
20 Yale under
10 Butler

[Mr. IWS]

Lenny Del Genio

Villanova/West Virginia Under

[Mr. IWS]

Illinios Chicago +13 4 unit

[Mr. IWS]

L*eK*str*ski
4* West Virginia -4.5

[Mr. IWS]

ATS Sports Club
February 13, 2009


NCAA:

Yale -2
Nova/WVU over 138

NHL:

Rangers/Panthers over 5.5
Blackhawks -165
Sharks/Sabres over 5.5
Canadiens/Avs over 6

[Mr. IWS]

Friday, February 13, 2009
Handicapper: ICEMAN
Montreal Canadiens vs. Colorado Avalanche (NHL) - 9:05 PM EST Premium Play
Pick: Money Line: -104 Montreal Canadiens Play Title: 4*
Click Here to View Pick Analysis
The Avs are just what the doctor ordered tonight for Montreal to snap their 5 game losing streak. Montreal has allowed 21 goals in their last 4 games and have dropped 8 of their last 10 overall. The Avs have not faired any better losing 7 of their last 9 games. Something’s gotta give here tonight. We like Montreal on the road to get the victory!

[Mr. IWS]

Scott Rickenbach

Vancouver Canucks @ Dallas Stars
PICK: Over

Please note that the write-ups with my star-rated and/or guaranteed picks are more in-depth than the analysis provided with my Free Picks. Thanks for joining me today and good luck! Especially in the NHL, because it doesn’t get as much attention, there is a tendency for the odds makers and the bettors to be slow to catch up to an emerging trend. In this particular case, we see a perfect example of that. In most games where a higher-scoring contest is expected, you’ll see NHL totals posted at a 6. However, for this Friday match-up with the Stars hosting the Canucks, we’re seeing a total of only a 5.5 posted on this game! Vancouver is known to be the type of club that is involved in lower-scoring games. However, that has simply not been the case since the calendar hit 2009. Starting with their January 2nd 4-3 overtime loss at Atlanta, 12 of the Canucks last 15 games have totaled at least six goals! Note that with last night’s 4 to 3 win at Phoenix, six straight Vancouver games have tallied at least seven goals.

As we noted in the write-up for our play on the Canucks last night: The Canucks are finally putting things together as they were expected to. They’ve made a line change that has paid big dividends. Teaming Mats Sundin, Pavol Demitra, and Ryan Kesler on the same line has paid off and a positive momentum effect on the whole club has spun off from this change. The Canucks have won three straight and their offense has suddenly become much more explosive. We look for more from this explosive offense tonight and we also absolutely expect Dallas to bounce back from a shutout home loss in their last game – a 1-0 loss versus Phoenix on Wednesday. Note that, prior to that loss, the Stars had scored 50 goals in their last 12 games. As you can see, there should be plenty of offense in Big D tonight. Consider a small play on OVER the total in Dallas on Friday.

[Mr. IWS]

Friday, February 13, 2009
Handicapper: ICEMAN
Montreal Canadiens vs. Colorado Avalanche (NHL) - 9:05 PM EST Premium Play
Pick: Money Line: -104 Montreal Canadiens Play Title: 4*
Click Here to View Pick Analysis
The Avs are just what the doctor ordered tonight for Montreal to snap their 5 game losing streak. Montreal has allowed 21 goals in their last 4 games and have dropped 8 of their last 10 overall. The Avs have not faired any better losing 7 of their last 9 games. Something’s gotta give here tonight. We like Montreal on the road to get the victory!

[Mr. IWS]

INDIAN COWBOY'S PLAY OF THE DAY *4 Unit Play. #857. Take Illinois Chicago +13 over the Butler Bulldogs (Friday @ 7pm est). First, for those of you who cross purchase the nba package, congrats on our 8th straight winning week in the NBA. We come off a nail-biting win with Northwestern against Illinois at home although NW could have won that game outright and frankly should have as they were in command most of the game. Another potential nail-biter tonight is with Illinois Chicago who hits the road at Butler. But, I like Illinois Chicago catching the points here. For starters, the dogs rule the day usually in Friday Night College Basketball. Time and time again, many people simply bet the favorites in college ball and in fact, you one truly wanted to profit, they can play nearly all the dogs on Friday night and more often than not, come out ahead. But, that is neither my style nor choice, as I enjoy my tortoise strategy of 1 play a day per sport as it reduces variance and also makes wagering more enjoyable to some extent to the non-degenerates so it doesn't take over your life with checking the scores of countless games. As per this game, 71% favor Butler. Hence, it's a great reason to be on Illinois Chicago. Do you really think the odds makers will make it that easy for the "Butler" Bulldogs to cover on Friday night college ball? This is not to say they can't or what, but certainly the situation will not be conducive to such a public favorite like Butler to cover tonight. For starters, Illinois Chicago has revenge losing to this team 52-59 earlier this year at home. Hence, it was only a 7 point loss at home to Butler and in a tight scoring contest, getting 13 points is certainly gravy. Furthermore, Butler comes off a huge 18 point win over Wright State who is a top 100 team on the road. Considering Wright State is one of the better teams in the conference, I think this is a dangerous sport for Butler and indeed they are in for a letdown. Bear in mind that we could lose this play - but I think there are a lot of facets going for us. Once again, Illinois Chicago has revenge, Butler is in for a letdown after a huge win over Wright State on the road, Butler has faced other top 200 teams in the same situation at home after a big win and have won by 8-10 points (which is the spread I have this game at to begin with), we are fading 71% of the public, Friday night lights is usually all about the dogs traditionally in college ball over the last four years I have tracked it, it's great to get 13 points on a total of 126 (essentially 10% of the point value given to you prior to the game starting), and not to mention the Bulldogs are 1-4 ATS when facing a team with a straight up losing record as it is tough for this team to cover the big spreads placed on them at home. Let's ride the Flames!

[Mr. IWS]

Kelso
25 Unit = Nova

[Mr. IWS]

NSA's Selection
CBB Villanova @ West Virginia 9:00 PM EST 20* West Virginia -3.5
CBB Illinois Chicago @ Butler 7:00 PM EST 10* Butler -12.5
CBB Princeton @ Yale 7:00 PM EST 10* Princeton +2
CBB Penn @ Brown 7:00 PM EST 10* Penn +1.5
CBB Loyola Chicago @ Valparaiso 8:00 PM EST 10* Loyola Chicago +4.5

[Mr. IWS]

Bob Akmens
Dallas Stars r12
(-160) / 5 units

[Mr. IWS]

Craig Davis
Friday's Lineup

20 Dime ---- WEST VIRGINIA

WEST VIRGINIA --- Call me crazy, but I believe this is going to be one of West Virginia’s best games of the season because, quite frankly, they need this game in a big way and they seem to step up when playing at home. Aside from a six-point loss to UConn and a ten-point loss to Pitt, this team is unblemished in Morgantown and I don’t see any reason that should change tonight. The last time the Mounties were at home (Saturday) they had their way with a very good Providence team, pounding them 86-59 as 11.5-point favorites. Before that they did the exact same thing to a lesser opponent, pummeling St. Johns by 23. And above all, West Virginia does something that Villanova doesn’t… play defense. WVU allows just 61 PPG on the season, but that number drops to 56 PPG when they play at home.

Villanova, on the other hand, is pure offense… and they’ve been unstoppable lately, scoring over 100 points in their last two and over 90 the game before that. They are simply shooting “lights out” from the field (51% last five games) and from three-point land (37% last five games). However, a deeper look inside the numbers finds that the Wildcats score fewer points (78 PPG) and allow more points 73 PPG) on the road as opposed to at home. They also struggle when playing solid defensive teams, scoring 67 vs. Pitt and 60 vs. Louisville, not to mention a 67-58 loss to Texas when playing on a neutral floor. All three of those teams play good, solid defense and were able to frustrate the Wildcats into “less than average” shooting from the field.

Should this game come down to a free throw shooting contest, the Mountaineers should more than be able to hold their own, shooting better than 78% from the line over their last five games… something coach Huggins has stressed since Day 1. ‘Nova has been on an incredible run lately, winning six in a row SU and eight straight ATS, but all good things have to come to an end and the Wildcats simply can’t continue this hot shooting. Remember, NO ONE thought Notre Dame could hang with Louisville Thursday night at home, but they came out on fire, played great defense, and completely dominated the Cardinals in a basic must-win game. Same scenario tonight. West Virginia is 5-6 in conference play and absolutely must have this win. Friday night home crowd makes the difference as WVU gets the big win at home, 74-63.

[Mr. IWS]

Scott Rickenbach

Vancouver Canucks @ Dallas Stars
PICK: Over

[Mr. IWS]

Vegas Runner

2* Yale -2
3* Best Bet of Week Ill-Chicago +13
3* ESPN bet of day West Virginia -4

[Mr. IWS]

Wunderdog

We rate each pick 1 to 5 units with 5 being the strongest play (read about units). Risk 1% of your bankroll per unit (never risk more than 5% of total bankroll on any pick).

Game: Villanova at West Virginia (9:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Villanova +4.5 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)

If you haven't been paying attention, Villanova may be playing better than anyone in the country right now. They have four losses, but a closer look is quite revealing. They lost to Texas when they were in the midst of a 7-1 run. They lost to Louisville by one point that was in the midst of a 9-0 run. They lost to Marquette on the road by seven, while they were in the midst of a 12-0 run, and no Big East team has come closer than that at Marquette. They lost to UConn who has reeled off 12 straight, but by just six on the road. They have now scored 100+ in two straight games - a rarity in the Big East. West Virginia has been getting abused by the top of the conference, losing to Marquette, UConn, and Pittsburgh twice, covering just once in the process. ‘Nova has covered eight straight, while W. Virginia is an ugly 2-10 ATS as a favorite. I think the wrong team is favored here, and Nova is a very lively dog. I'll grab them with the points.
Game: Boston at New Jersey (8:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: Game Total UNDER 5.5 -135


The Bruins have carved themselves out a special season, and on the road have lost just five times this season. Credit has to go to tremendous goaltending and a focused defense as they have allowed just 45 goals in their last 25 road games, or an amazing 1.8 per game. The Devils have put together a pretty good season themselves, especially lately where they have won 11 of their last 13. They have done it the same way - keeping the puck out of the net as in six of those 13 games, the opponent scored one time or less. That Bruins’ road defense has led to 18 of their last 24 on the road going UNDER, and this series has seen a 5-2-1 mark to the UNDER in the last eight played in New Jersey. I like the UNDER in this one.