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Re: 1/7/09
Jeff Benton
15 Dime: JAZZ (minus the points vs. Hornets)
5 Dime: MICHIGAN (minus the points vs. Indiana)
5 Dime: TENNESSEE (minus the points vs. Gonzaga)
Jazz
One word: Letdown. That’s the situation the Hornets are in. Last night, behind sensational performances from David West (40 points, 11 rebounds) and Chris Paul (32 points, 15 assists) and a dominating fourth quarter (27-13), the Hornets trounced the Lakers 116-105, becoming just the second team this season to win on Kobe’s home court. Now, after a late-night flight to Salt Lake, New Orleans has to play the rested Jazz (13-4 at home) and deal with a big change in altitude. It’s something the Hornets haven’t handled very well in recent years, as they’ve lost four straight games in Salt Lake (0-3-1 ATS) by an average of 21 points per game!
Overall, New Orleans is 1-5 in its last six games against the Jazz, and since dynamic point guards Paul and Utah’s Deron Williams entered the league, the Hornets are 2-8 against the Jazz. Also, the home team has cashed at a 6-2-1 ATS clip in the last nine meetings and the favorite is 4-1-1 ATS in the last six.
Now, there’s no doubt which team is playing better basketball right now, as the Hornets have won five of their last six and 16 of their last 21, while the Jazz are just 5-6 in their last 11 games. But as I’ve often stated, the NBA, more times than not, is more about situations than streaks. It’s why I backed the Bobcats last night against the Celtics, who were in the midst of a brutal 10-game, 18-day stretch were eight of the 10 contests were played on the road.
Well, in this one, Utah should be quite rested, as it has played just three games since Dec. 27, two of them at home, Meanwhile, New Orleans is completing a four-game, six-day road trip, with the first three being played against playoff-caliber opponents (Blazers, Nuggets, Lakers).
Also, the Jazz have won three in a row and five of six in Salt Lake, with victory margins of 27, 9, 9, 17 and 5 points. As for New Orleans, despite last night’s impressive win in Hollywood, it is still just 10-6 SU and 7-8-1 ATS on the road this year. Also, prior to last night, the Hornets had failed to cash in five straight games as an underdog, and they’re just 3-4 ATS in back-to-back situations this year (conversely, Utah is 13-6 ATS when playing after one day off, including 4-0 ATS in the last four in that spot).
New Orleans has averaged – averaged! – just 81.3 ppg in its last four trips to Utah, and dare I guess that in none of those four were the Hornets less than 24 hours removed from their biggest win of the season or playing their fourth road game in six nights. Clearly, this is a terrible spot for the Hornets, and their win in Los Angeles last night definitely got Utah’s attention. Lay the chalk.
Michigan
Kudos to Indiana for finding a way to hang with Iowa in Saturday’s Big Ten opener (65-60 loss as a 13-point underdog). But I wasn’t fooled, as the Hoosiers are still in for a looonggg conference season with a roster loaded with bench guys and walk-ons. They come into this game against surprising Michigan having lost four in a row and six of their last seven, including home defeats to – are you ready for this? – Lipscomb (74-69) and Northeastern (55-42). I know this Indiana program has pretty much hit rock bottom, but that’s downright ridiculous to lose to those two schools in Bloomington (and it makes me wonder if Iowa played the Hoosiers 4-on-5 or something).
Michigan comes into this contest with an 11-3 record (6-2-1 ATS in betting games), as the Wolverines have obviously turned the corner in the second year under talented coach John Beilein (formerly of West Virginia). Among those 11 victories are impressive wins over Top 15 foes UCLA (55-52) and Duke (81-73), and the same Northeastern team that won at Indiana lost 76-56 in Ann Arbor back in early November.
The Wolverines bounced back from a Big Ten-opening loss to Wisconsin (73-61) by rolling over Illinois 74-64 as a 1½-point home chalk Sunday. And a quick peek at the stat box shows advantages for Michigan up and down the line, as the Wolverines average 73.5 points per game (Indiana averages 60.2 ppg); shoot 44.1 percent from the field and 35 percent from 3-point land (Indiana checks in at 41.9 percent overall and 29.3 from downtown); make 77.8 percent of their free throws (Indiana makes 66.7 percent); and they allow only 63.8 ppg on 42.3 percent shooting (Indiana gives up 68.5 ppg on 46.5 percent).
With no real look-ahead to worry about with Michigan (its next game is against Iowa at home Sunday, this one’s a no-brainer. Wolverines cruise by double digits.
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