1-4-09

[Mr. IWS]

dr bob


I’ll consider Minnesota a Strong Opinion at +3 (at -1.10 odds or better) and I’d take the Vikings in a 2-Star Best Bet at +3 ½ at -1.15 odds or less. I also lean with the Under in this game.

I’d consider Miami a Strong Opinion at +4 points or more.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 1-4-09

Big Al

Sunday:
At 5 pm, our selection is on the Cal Riverside Highlanders minus the points over UCSB. Both of these teams are exhibiting strong home/road dichotomies this season. UCSB is 1-5 straight-up on the road (1-4 ATS), but 3-1 ATS at home. And Cal Riverside is also 1-4 ATS on the road, but a super 6-0 SU and 4-0 ATS at home. In its last game, Riverside blew out Cal Poly Slo 91-57, and off that 34-point win, the Highlanders fall into a 71-29 ATS system of mine that plays on certain teams off blowout wins which are matched up against foes off SU losses (UCSB lost 76-64 at Long Beach on Friday). The Highlanders are a perfect 11-0 ATS since December 15, 2007 provided they're not an underdog of 5 or more points. And Cal Riverside is 10-2 ATS its last 12 at home. Take the Highlanders as our Big West Conference Game of the Month. 3 * play

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Miami Dolphins plus the points over Baltimore. These two teams met earlier this season, and we had a huge 4* play on the Ravens. Baltimore rewarded us with a 27-13 victory that afternoon, but we're going to go against the Ravens in this rematch. Miami won at New York last week, and home dogs do exceptionally well (84-45, 64% ATS) off straight-up wins as road dogs, if they're matched up against a foe off a home win. Also, much like yesterday's Atlanta/Arizona match-up, the Dolphins have a big advantage in that they have a veteran signal-caller in Chad Pennington, while Baltimore is led by rookie QB Joe Flacco. Yesterday, Matt Ryan made some "rookie mistakes" against the Cardinals, and I expect Flacco to struggle in his first playoff game as well in a hostile environment. Look for the unflappable Pennington to lead Miami to an upset win. Take the points. 3* play

At 4:30 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Vikings plus the points over Philly, as the Vikes fall into 92-50, 11-2, 41-16, 57-34, 16-2, 32-9, 17-1, 18-2, and 24-8 ATS systems of mine. Several of these play against the Eagles off their 44-6 win over the Cowboys, and others play on Minnesota. Let's take a quick look at our 92-50 ATS System. That angle has been winning forever, and simply plays on any NFL underdog of +3 points or more which failed to cover the spread as a favorite of -7 or more points in its previous game, if it's now matched up against a foe off a win and cover. Last week, the Vikings won 20-19 over the Giants, but failed to cover the spread in that game (Minny was favored by 7 points), while Philly checks in off a 38-point blowout win over Dallas. This angle is 92-50 ATS since 1980, including a perfect 13-0 ATS vs. .870 (or worse) favorites on the road. It's no secret that Minnesota will attempt to put its fate in the hands of the NFL's leading rusher, Adrian Peterson. Peterson gained 1760 yards this season, but don't overlook the strides that 2nd-year QB Tarvaris Jackson has made since returning to the starting lineup. Jackson has thrown eight touchdowns, but even more importantly, just one interception in Minnesota's last four games. The Eagles have been a jekyll-and-hyde team all season. Last week, Philly looked unbeatable in its 44-6 rout of the Cowboys, while two weeks ago, the Eagles mustered just 3 points against the Redskins. And in its two November road games, Philly scored just seven at Baltimore in a 36-7 loss, and just 13 in its tie game at Cincy. Indeed, Philly won just three road games all season, and two were against San Francisco and Seattle, both mediocre squads, at best. Minnesota won six of its eight home games, and only lost to Indy and Atlanta, both playoff teams. And the Vikings were within one score of winning each of those games. Take the Vikings plus the points. 5* play

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 1-4-09

Sprietzer
5* bal/mia OVER
5* TOTAL DOMINATOR phil/min UNDER
Smash Mouth Insider MINNY

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 1-4-09

Wayne Root

Chairman- Dolphins
Millionaire- Vikings

Chairman- Cal Santa Barbara
Millionaire- Arizona St

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 1-4-09

Brandon Lang
Sunday winners 25-Dime Eagles:
5-Dime Ravens:

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 1-4-09

Larry Ness Sunday

7* Daytime Dominator


Bruce Weber won 112 games (that's 28 per) in his first four seasons at Illinois, including a 37-2 season in 2004-05, when the Illini lost in the championship game to North Carolina. However, the Illini fell to 16-19 last year and expectations were more muted this year. However, Illinois has won seven straight and will take a 13-1 mark into today's game at Crisler Arena against Michigan. The Wolverines are coming off a 10-22 season last year (5-13 in the Big 10), as John Beilein suffered just the fourth losing season of his 30-year career (561-340 entering TY). Michigan's struggles were anticipated last season and expectations were that in his second year, Beilein would be able to make the Wolverines much more competitive, with a winning record and an NIT bid not out of the question. However, Beilein has far exceeded those expectations, as Michigan opened this past week 10-2 and ranked 24th in the nation. The team owns wins over two schools ranked 4th in the nation at the time the games were played, beating UCLA 55-52 on Nov 20 (in Madison Square Garden) and Duke 81-73 at home on Dec 6. However, Michigan lost 73-61 last Wednesday at home to Wisconsin, as leading scorer Manny Harris was held to just nine points on 3-of-13 shooting. Michigan shot below 40 percent for the third straight game (39.2 percent) and even more troubling, allowed Wisconsin to shot 58.7 percent from the floor. A win here could keep the Wolverines in the top-25 but maybe not. Speaking of the top-25, the Illini would certainly enter it with a win on Sunday. Illinois beat then-No. 25 Missouri in St. Louis on Dec 23 by the score of 75-59 and just this past Tuesday, won 71-67 in overtime at No. 9 Purdue. A look at the Illinois stat sheet shows four players averaging 12.1 PPG entering this game. The group includes senior guard Meachem and sophomore McCamey, who adds 4.4 APG. It also includes two sophomore big men, the 6-10 Davis (7.7 RPG) and the 7-1 Tisdale (4.8 RPG), who had 18 points in the win over Purdue, scoring in double digits for the fifth straight game (first time in his career he's done that). Another key player in the win over the Boilermakers was senior guard Chester Frazier (5.9-4.7-6.5), who held Purdue's Robbie Hummel to seven shots and seven points. More good news comes Illini's way now that 6-5 Kentucky transfer Alex Legion is eligible, as the 6-5 guard had 12 points vs Purdue, in just his fourth game. Illinois has excellent depth and balance this year but in the 6-5 Harris (19.0-7.7-4.9) and the 6-8 Sims (16.9-8.8), Michigan has the two most talented players in this game. Guard Lucas-Perry, an Arizona transfer, is now eligible for Michigan and in his four games, has reached double digits each time, averaging 11.3 PPG. He joins a trio of guards which include freshman Novak and Douglass plus sophomore Grady, who have combined to average around 17 PPG for the Wolves so far. Forwards Shepherd and Gibson add just over eight PPG. I realize that Illinois is a dangerous team but Michigan has won three straight home games over the Illini and a win here by Illinois would mark a third win over a top-25 team since Dec 23. That's a pretty 'tall' order, when one considers Illinois hasn't beaten three ranked opponents in the same season since 2005-06!


Daytime Dominator on Michigan


9* Wildcard NFL


The Vikings opened 0-2 and benched its starting QB (Jackson) for a journeymen QB in Frerotte and was just 3-4 after seven games. Playing in the NFC North, the Vikings knew a 9-7 finish would likely be good enough to win the division (it would have been) but Minnesota finished 10-6, returning to Jackson at QB when Frerotte was injured in the team's Week 14 game with the Lions. As for the Eagles, playing in the NFC East, the team figured nine wins had NO chance to win the division and that at least 10 wins would be needed to grab a wild card berth. The Eagles were at 5-3 midway through the year but an 0-2-1 slide from Weeks 10-12 seemingly doomed the team's playoff hopes. Philly opened that stretch by losing 36-31 to the Giants, followed that with an 'ugly' tie against the Bengals (when McNabb famously said he didn't realize games could end in a tie) and then got demolished 36-7 by the Ravens, in a game where McNabb was benched. However, the Eagles went 4-1 down the stretch, while the Cowboys and Bucs collapsed, allowing the Eagles to get the NFC's final playoff spot, despite a 9-6-1 mark. Both teams play excellent defense and both own quality RBs, although neither star player is 100 percent. The QB edge clearly goes to McNabb and while Reid will be coaching his 15th playoff game this decade, his former assistant (Brad Childress worked under Reid from 1999-2005 at Philly), will be making his playoff head coaching debut. Minnesota is known for its spectacular rush D, which led the league, allowing 76.9 YPG (3.3 YPC) and 10 TDs. However, Philly's D allowed 92.2 YPG (3.5 YPC) and just seven TDs, the fewest in the league. Philly's pass D ranked third in the league (182.1 YPG), allowing 17 TDs while intercepting 26 passes. The Eagles also allowed just 54.1 percent completions, the second-best rate in the NFL. Minnesota's D allowed 215.6 YPG passing on 61.1 percent completions with 15 TDs and just 12 INTs. While Philly is known for its blitzes, Minnesota did have 45 sacks, compared to Philly's 34. The Vikings are known for that great DL and it will be interesting to see if DT Pat Williams will play, after missing the last two games with a shoulder injury (he says he will but is listed as questionable). Adrian Peterson jed the NFL in rushing with 1,760 yards (4.8 YPC) but had almost as many fumbles (nine) as he did TDs (10). His ankle has been bothering him for a few weeks now and we'll just have to see. Taylor is an excellent backup, who is also a dangerous receiver (45 catches). As good as Peterson is, Westbrook is one of the league's most valuable RBs, when healthy. However, he's fought knee and ankle injuries all season, gaining only 936 yards. He had back-to-back 100 yard games in wins over the Cards (on Thanksgiving) and then at the Giants in Week 14 but over the last three games, averaged just 49.3 YPG and 3.6 YPC. Like Taylor for Minny, Buckhalter is more than capable of playing well for Philly, if Westbrook is less than 100 percent. Jackson has played in 16 NFL games (11 TDs and 16 INTs) entering this year but after going 30-of-59 for 308 yards (one TD and one INT) in Minny's 0-2 start, was benched (with good reason). Only Frerotte's injury gave him a "second chance" and he's made the most of it. He's completing 64.0 percent of his passes since his return, throwing eight TDs and just one INT. However, he'll face a very physical Philly defense, which is known for throwing an array of blitz packages at the QB. Philly's McNabb shook off his benching by leading the Eagles to four wins in their last five games (outscored opponents 147-60). His QB rating topped 100 in three of the four wins (was 92.5 in the other) and while the Eagles lost 10-3 at Washington in Week 16, McNabb was 26-46 for 230 yards with no TDs and no INTs in that one (not terrible). In the four wins, he completed 67.2 percent with nine TDs and just one INT. Neither team owns great receivers but McNabb's never really had a quality receiving corps in his tenure at Philly, so that's nothing new. The coaching edge for Philly is pretty big. Reid will be coaching his 15th playoff game this decade (he's 8-6) and he's never lost a playoff opener, having gone 6-0. However, this will be the first time he's opened on the road. Childress is a playoff rookie and the Vikes are in the postseason for the first time since 2004 and playing their first home playoff games since 2000. I expected the Eagles to bounce back from LY's 8-8 season and make the postseason TY and while it was hardly "smooth sailing," the Eagles are in the postseason. It should also be noted that just two of the 12 teams which made the playoffs this year own top-10 rankings in both offense and defense. Philly, ninth in total offense and third in total defense, is one of those teams. The other team is the Giants (7th in offense and 5th in defense) and with a win here, the Eagles will travel to the Meadowlands next Sunday to take on the those Giants for a third time this year (teams split their two games). The defending Super Bowl champs are surely not lacking in confidence but I bet they'd rather play the Cardinals next week, than have to take on the Eagles. Does this stat matter? McNabb is 4-0 (eight TDs and no INTs) with a 113.4 QB rating in his career vs the Vikings. Probably not but I do believe McNabb will move to 5-0 in his career vs the Vikings in a rather easy win this afternoon.

NFL Wildcard 9* on the Phi Eagles.


Las Vegas Insider - NCAABB

Trent Johnson couldn't pass up the huge money offered at SU and left his "dream job" in Palo Alto (after a 28-win season and a Sweet 16 appearance LY) for Baton Rogue. Stanford also lost the Lopez twins Brook (19.3-8.2) and Robin (10.2-5.7) to the NBA plus seniors Washington (4.4-4.1) and Finger (5.9-4.4). In came Johnny Dawkins, who has been sitting beside Coach K on the Duke bench for the last 11 seasons. Expectations were not high this year, as few doubted that Stanford could work its way to a winning record in the Pac 10 and that 16-18 wins overall, would be a good first year for Dawkins' team. However, the Cardinal opened 10-0 with a steady 'diet' of 'nobodies.' Senior guard Goods (17.5-3.8) leads a three-guard lineup which also features fellow senior Johnson (7.8.2-4.9 APG) and the 6-7 Fields (10.9-6.2). Lawrence Hill (13.6-6.5) is one of two 6-8 big men in the lineup, joined by Owens (11.2-5.5). Guard Brown and Green add just over 10 PPG to the cause. Arizona'a 19-14 record last year was surprisingly good enough for the Wildcats to make their 23rd straight NCAA appearance but the team lost in its first game. The 19-15 finish marked the first time in 20 seasons that the Wildcats didn't win 20 games. Then just prior to the start of this season, Lute Olson announced he was stepping down, after 34 years of coaching (23 at Arizona). All things considered. the Wildcats' 9-4 start is not bad. The 6-10 Hill (18.8-11.8) just edges the 6-7 Budinger (17.0-6.0-3.2) as the team's leading scorer plus guard Nick Wise (14.7-2.8-5.2) gives Arizona a trio of excellent players. The 6-6 Horne (9.1-5.7) and guard Fogg (5.2) round out the staring-five of a team that doesn't have much depth. Arizona opened Pac 10 play on Friday with a 69-55 loss at Cal, as Budinger (a career 46 percent shooter), went 4-of-16 while scoring just nine points. However, Hill had 18-11 and played 39 minutes which is good news, since he had sat out the game before with a minor injury. Stanford played Friday night as well and lost its first game of the season, getting pounded 90-60 by a very good Arizona St team. As I mentioned earlier, Stanford has had an easy go of things up until now and I expect them to struggle again tonight. Arizona has two one-point losses this year, home to a pretty good UAB team and at A&M, which is currently 13-1. The Wildcats have beaten then-No.4 Gonzaga 69-64 on Dec 14 and with a big second half, beat Kansas, 84-67 on Dec 23. With the Lopez twins leading the way, Stanford beat Arizona in both of LY's regular season meetings and then again in the Pac 10 tourney. However, the Lopez twins are long gone and led by a "bounce-back" game but Budinger, the Wildcats avenge last year's 0-3 mark vs the Cardinal.

Las Vegas Insider on Arizona

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 1-4-09

Ben Burns

10* Top Rated NFL Total going today

Under Philly--Playoff Total of Year

Miami

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 1-4-09

spritzer

minn
minn under
miami over

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 1-4-09

ppp
3 minn under