dr bob
3 Star Selection
***Memphis 26 S. Florida (-12.5) 29 (at St. Petersburg Bowl)
01:30 PM Pacific, 20-Dec-08
While South Florida can be considered a home team here, with this game being played just a short drive from Tampa, I’m not sure that’s really an advantage. I just don’t see how a veteran South Florida team that had major bowl game aspirations will be fired up to play in a minor bowl game against an uninspiring opponent while not getting to go somewhere new and exciting. Big favorites in minor bowl games have always been bad bets and that is especially true of a team that had loftier goals. South Florida applies to a negative 1-19-3 ATS bowl big favorite letdown situation while Memphis has got to be fired up to make it to any bowl game after earning their way with a 6-6 record by winning 3 of their last 4 games. The Tigers apply to a 61-19-4 ATS minor bowl underdog angle as well as a 24-2 ATS bowl situation. The technical analysis is about as strong as it can get, so the next step is to check to make sure the line is fair.
Memphis is a an above average offensive team with Arkelon Hall at quarterback, as the Tigers run the ball pretty well (5.2 yards per rushing play in 11 games against Division 1A teams that would allow 5.1 yprp to an average team) and Hall posted slightly better than average numbers (6.7 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 6.6 yppp to an average quarterback) while throwing just 7 interceptions on 304 pass attempts. Memphis had just one horrible offensive game (3.2 yards per play and 10 points against East Carolina), but Hall was knocked out of that game against the Pirates early in the first quarter and backup quarterback Will Hudgins was injured on the next series. Hall missed two more games after that one, but he’s healthy now and should post good numbers against a sub-par South Florida secondary that has allowed 6.3 yards per pass play to a slate of quarterbacks that would combine to average just 5.8 yppp against an average defensive team. USF is very good defending the run (3.9 yprp allowed), but that will simply force Hall to throw more, which should enhance the Tigers’ attack.
What made Memphis a below average team this season was a defensive unit that allowed 6.1 yards per play to teams that would combine to average just 5.1 yppl against an average team. The Tigers, however, were missing their two best defensive players for parts of the season, as star LB Greg Jackson (3 sacks, 9.5 tackles for loss in 9 games) missed weeks 3 through 5 while top defensive lineman Clinton McDonald (7 sacks in 8.3 games) was injured early in week 7 and then missed the next 3 games. Memphis got a little worse against the run when Jackson was hurt and they became particularly vulnerable to the run when McDonald was lost for almost 4 games. Memphis was 1.1 yppl worse than average defensively for the season (6.1 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.0 yppl), but they were only 0.6 yppl worse than average in 4 games in which Jackson and McDonald both played (after adjusting for the absence of Tulane’s top two offensive players). South Florida is a better than average offensive team (5.5 yppl against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl to an average team), but Memphis is underrated defensively and my math model projects just 33 points for USF in this game.
The math model favors South Florida by just 11 points even if I give them 1 ½ points for the semi-home field advantage and the situation is strongly in favor of the Tigers. I’ll take Memphis in a 3-Star Best Bet at +11 or more and for 2-Stars at +10 ½ or +10 points. I have no opinion on the total.
Navy 24 Wake Forest (-3.0) 21 (at EagleBank Bowl)
08:00 AM Pacific, 20-Dec-08
This game is a rare bowl game rematch of a regular season game, a 24-17 Navy win as a 16 ½ point underdog at Wake Forest. Wake Forest quarterback Riley Skinner threw an uncharacteristic 4 interceptions in that game (he threw just 3 total in the other 3 games), but Navy’s win was not a fluke. The Midshipmen averaged 5.5 yards per play in that game and ran for 305 yards at 5.4 yards per rushing play while Wake Forest managed just 4.4 yppl. Wake Forest is a very good defensive team, allowing just 4.7 yppl for the season against teams that would combine to average 5.6 yppl against an average opponent, but being good defensively does not mean that a tam is going to be good at defending the option and Wake Forest apparently isn’t very good at defending the option, which is common for an aggressive defense. The Demon Deacons’ aggressive play is usually to their advantage, but discipline is needed to defend the option, which is an offense designed to bridge the gap in talent. Navy’s offense works about the same regardless of the quality of the defense, as evidenced by the fact that they scored between 21 points and 34 points in 10 of their 11 games against Division 1A teams (and won 16-0 in the one game they didn’t reach 21 points). Navy’s option wasn’t as good as it was last year for much of the season, as veteran starting quarterback Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku-Enhada played in just 5 games this season. Kaheaku-Enhada led the attack in Navy’s 34-0 win over Army in the final game of the regular season and he’ll be as healthy as he’s been all season for his final collegiate game. Not only is Kaheaku-Enhada a more efficient passer, but he reads defenses better than Bryant or Dobbs and the option is more effective when he’s at quarterback. Navy averaged 5.2 yards per rushing play against 11 Division 1A teams that would combine to allow 4.7 yprp to an average team (so they were 0.5 yprp better than average), but the Middies were 1.1 yprp better than average in the 5 games that Kaheaku-Enhada played – averaging 5.6 yprp against teams that would allow 4.5 yprp to an average team. With Kaheaku-Enhada at the controls I expect Navy to be able to move the ball just as well as they did in their earlier meeting with Wake Forest.
Navy’s only issue this season has been pass defense, as the Midshipmen have allowed 7.4 yards per pass play to a schedule of opposing quarterbacks that would combine to average 6.3 yppp against an average defensive team. Navy, however, did defense mediocre and below average quarterbacks very well and they held 6 of their 11 opponents below their average yards per pass play rating. Navy’s defensive pass stats were skewed by big numbers by good quarterbacks, including 11.6 yppp by Ball State’s Nate Davis, and 10.7 yppp by Temple’s Adam DiMichelle. Wake Forest’s Riley Skinner may not be good enough to take advantage of Navy’s occasional defensive lapses in the secondary, as Skinner averaged just 5.2 yppp this season against teams that would combine to allow 5.9 yppp to an average quarterback, including throwing for a modest 5.8 yppp in their loss to Navy. The Navy defense also got noticeably better down the stretch, as they allowed less than 5 yards per play in 4 of their final 5 games and finished the season with consecutive shutout wins. The Middies are good against the run (4.2 yprp allowed to teams that would average 4.4 yprp) and Wake Forest is one of the worst running teams in the nation (3.7 yprp against teams that would allow 4.7 yprp), so it will be up to Skinner to carry the load and Navy is much better in pass defense when they don’t have to worry about stopping the run.
My math model favors Navy by 2 points with a total of 47 points with Kaheaku-Enhada at quarterback for the Midshipmen and Military Academies have a tendency to perform very well in bowl games (Army, Navy, and Air Force are a combined 21-7 ATS in bowls since 1980). Navy also tends to travel well, as they are an incredible 112-65-2 ATS in all road or neutral games since 1980, including covering 4 of their final 5 games away from home this season. Wake Forest, meanwhile, is just 10-17 ATS as a favorite under coach Jim Grobe (compared to 20-11 ATS as a dog), including 3-6 ATS laying points this season. In addition to the team trends Navy applies to a very good 39-7 ATS bowl games statistical match-up indicator and a 29-4-2 ATS statistical indicator. Unfortunately, Wake Forest applies to a 46-18-1 ATS bowl situation that will keep me from making this game a Best Bet.
I’ll consider Navy a Strong Opinion at +1 or more and I’d take Navy in a 2-Star Best Bet at +3 ½ or more.
3 Star Selection
***Memphis 26 S. Florida (-12.5) 29 (at St. Petersburg Bowl)
01:30 PM Pacific, 20-Dec-08
While South Florida can be considered a home team here, with this game being played just a short drive from Tampa, I’m not sure that’s really an advantage. I just don’t see how a veteran South Florida team that had major bowl game aspirations will be fired up to play in a minor bowl game against an uninspiring opponent while not getting to go somewhere new and exciting. Big favorites in minor bowl games have always been bad bets and that is especially true of a team that had loftier goals. South Florida applies to a negative 1-19-3 ATS bowl big favorite letdown situation while Memphis has got to be fired up to make it to any bowl game after earning their way with a 6-6 record by winning 3 of their last 4 games. The Tigers apply to a 61-19-4 ATS minor bowl underdog angle as well as a 24-2 ATS bowl situation. The technical analysis is about as strong as it can get, so the next step is to check to make sure the line is fair.
Memphis is a an above average offensive team with Arkelon Hall at quarterback, as the Tigers run the ball pretty well (5.2 yards per rushing play in 11 games against Division 1A teams that would allow 5.1 yprp to an average team) and Hall posted slightly better than average numbers (6.7 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 6.6 yppp to an average quarterback) while throwing just 7 interceptions on 304 pass attempts. Memphis had just one horrible offensive game (3.2 yards per play and 10 points against East Carolina), but Hall was knocked out of that game against the Pirates early in the first quarter and backup quarterback Will Hudgins was injured on the next series. Hall missed two more games after that one, but he’s healthy now and should post good numbers against a sub-par South Florida secondary that has allowed 6.3 yards per pass play to a slate of quarterbacks that would combine to average just 5.8 yppp against an average defensive team. USF is very good defending the run (3.9 yprp allowed), but that will simply force Hall to throw more, which should enhance the Tigers’ attack.
What made Memphis a below average team this season was a defensive unit that allowed 6.1 yards per play to teams that would combine to average just 5.1 yppl against an average team. The Tigers, however, were missing their two best defensive players for parts of the season, as star LB Greg Jackson (3 sacks, 9.5 tackles for loss in 9 games) missed weeks 3 through 5 while top defensive lineman Clinton McDonald (7 sacks in 8.3 games) was injured early in week 7 and then missed the next 3 games. Memphis got a little worse against the run when Jackson was hurt and they became particularly vulnerable to the run when McDonald was lost for almost 4 games. Memphis was 1.1 yppl worse than average defensively for the season (6.1 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.0 yppl), but they were only 0.6 yppl worse than average in 4 games in which Jackson and McDonald both played (after adjusting for the absence of Tulane’s top two offensive players). South Florida is a better than average offensive team (5.5 yppl against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl to an average team), but Memphis is underrated defensively and my math model projects just 33 points for USF in this game.
The math model favors South Florida by just 11 points even if I give them 1 ½ points for the semi-home field advantage and the situation is strongly in favor of the Tigers. I’ll take Memphis in a 3-Star Best Bet at +11 or more and for 2-Stars at +10 ½ or +10 points. I have no opinion on the total.
Navy 24 Wake Forest (-3.0) 21 (at EagleBank Bowl)
08:00 AM Pacific, 20-Dec-08
This game is a rare bowl game rematch of a regular season game, a 24-17 Navy win as a 16 ½ point underdog at Wake Forest. Wake Forest quarterback Riley Skinner threw an uncharacteristic 4 interceptions in that game (he threw just 3 total in the other 3 games), but Navy’s win was not a fluke. The Midshipmen averaged 5.5 yards per play in that game and ran for 305 yards at 5.4 yards per rushing play while Wake Forest managed just 4.4 yppl. Wake Forest is a very good defensive team, allowing just 4.7 yppl for the season against teams that would combine to average 5.6 yppl against an average opponent, but being good defensively does not mean that a tam is going to be good at defending the option and Wake Forest apparently isn’t very good at defending the option, which is common for an aggressive defense. The Demon Deacons’ aggressive play is usually to their advantage, but discipline is needed to defend the option, which is an offense designed to bridge the gap in talent. Navy’s offense works about the same regardless of the quality of the defense, as evidenced by the fact that they scored between 21 points and 34 points in 10 of their 11 games against Division 1A teams (and won 16-0 in the one game they didn’t reach 21 points). Navy’s option wasn’t as good as it was last year for much of the season, as veteran starting quarterback Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku-Enhada played in just 5 games this season. Kaheaku-Enhada led the attack in Navy’s 34-0 win over Army in the final game of the regular season and he’ll be as healthy as he’s been all season for his final collegiate game. Not only is Kaheaku-Enhada a more efficient passer, but he reads defenses better than Bryant or Dobbs and the option is more effective when he’s at quarterback. Navy averaged 5.2 yards per rushing play against 11 Division 1A teams that would combine to allow 4.7 yprp to an average team (so they were 0.5 yprp better than average), but the Middies were 1.1 yprp better than average in the 5 games that Kaheaku-Enhada played – averaging 5.6 yprp against teams that would allow 4.5 yprp to an average team. With Kaheaku-Enhada at the controls I expect Navy to be able to move the ball just as well as they did in their earlier meeting with Wake Forest.
Navy’s only issue this season has been pass defense, as the Midshipmen have allowed 7.4 yards per pass play to a schedule of opposing quarterbacks that would combine to average 6.3 yppp against an average defensive team. Navy, however, did defense mediocre and below average quarterbacks very well and they held 6 of their 11 opponents below their average yards per pass play rating. Navy’s defensive pass stats were skewed by big numbers by good quarterbacks, including 11.6 yppp by Ball State’s Nate Davis, and 10.7 yppp by Temple’s Adam DiMichelle. Wake Forest’s Riley Skinner may not be good enough to take advantage of Navy’s occasional defensive lapses in the secondary, as Skinner averaged just 5.2 yppp this season against teams that would combine to allow 5.9 yppp to an average quarterback, including throwing for a modest 5.8 yppp in their loss to Navy. The Navy defense also got noticeably better down the stretch, as they allowed less than 5 yards per play in 4 of their final 5 games and finished the season with consecutive shutout wins. The Middies are good against the run (4.2 yprp allowed to teams that would average 4.4 yprp) and Wake Forest is one of the worst running teams in the nation (3.7 yprp against teams that would allow 4.7 yprp), so it will be up to Skinner to carry the load and Navy is much better in pass defense when they don’t have to worry about stopping the run.
My math model favors Navy by 2 points with a total of 47 points with Kaheaku-Enhada at quarterback for the Midshipmen and Military Academies have a tendency to perform very well in bowl games (Army, Navy, and Air Force are a combined 21-7 ATS in bowls since 1980). Navy also tends to travel well, as they are an incredible 112-65-2 ATS in all road or neutral games since 1980, including covering 4 of their final 5 games away from home this season. Wake Forest, meanwhile, is just 10-17 ATS as a favorite under coach Jim Grobe (compared to 20-11 ATS as a dog), including 3-6 ATS laying points this season. In addition to the team trends Navy applies to a very good 39-7 ATS bowl games statistical match-up indicator and a 29-4-2 ATS statistical indicator. Unfortunately, Wake Forest applies to a 46-18-1 ATS bowl situation that will keep me from making this game a Best Bet.
I’ll consider Navy a Strong Opinion at +1 or more and I’d take Navy in a 2-Star Best Bet at +3 ½ or more.
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