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Re: 12-14-08
Brandon Lang
Sunday 25 Dime Baltimore Ravens (if your line is 3 you buy the 1/2 and lay 2-1/2 and if your line is 3-1/2 you buy the 1/2 and lay 3)
10 dime 6-point teaser - Jets / Broncos
FREE: NY Giants (See daily video for your analysis on this game)Comment
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Re: 12-14-08
Al
At 4:15 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the Denver/Carolina game. The Carolina Panthers have played four straight high-scoring games: a 31-22 win vs. Detroit; a 45-28 loss at Atlanta; a 35-31 victory at Green Bay; and last Monday's 38-23 triumph over Tampa Bay. Off these four high-scoring games (each went over the total), we'll look for a much lower scoring game here, as teams which play in four straight 'overs' have gone 'under' the total 60.2% of the time (132-87) if the line is 38 or more points, and their foe went 'under' in its previous game. Also, the Panthers have always been a team that has won games with defense, and a strong rushing attack. These are two qualities that generally result in lower scoring games. When the Panthers have been favored by 6 or more points, their games have, not surprisingly, gone 'under' the total 26 of 37 times, as Carolina usually gets out to a lead, and then can "take the air out of the ball" with their rushing attack. This year, the Panthers have been favored by six points in four games: at home vs. Atlanta (a 24-9 win); at home vs. KC (a 34-0 win); on the road vs. Oakland (a 17-6 win); and the aforementioned game vs. Detroit (a 31-22 win). So, three of those four games went 'under' the total. We'll look for another low-scoring game here. Non-Conference Total of the Year on the 'under' in Carolina/Denver. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. And don't miss my other big winners on Sunday, including my NFL Roadkill play (13-4 this football season).
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Buffalo Bills plus the points over the NY Jets, as Dick Jauron's men fall into an awesome 22-0 ATS system of mine. What we want to do is play on any .450 (or better) team off a loss of more than 10 points to a division rival, if it was favored in that loss, and is now an underdog against another division rival. Last week, Buffalo fell 16-3 to an AFC East rival -- the Miami Dolphins -- and the Bills were a small favorite in that contest, so Buffalo falls squarely within our 22-0 ATS system. Even though Buffy's offense has been out of sync, its defense has been solid the past two weeks, and has only given up a total of 26 points (two TDs and four FGs). Meanwhile, the Jets are also floundering, and have lost their last two ballgames -- both as big favorites -- 34-17 at home to Denver, and 24-14 on the road vs. San Francisco. And .454 (or better) NFL home favorites of less than 15 points, off back-to-back double digit losses, are an awful 2-21 ATS vs. foes off a SU/ATS loss. Look for Buffalo to rebound big in this divisional contest, and cover the large number. Take the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. And don't miss my NFL Non-Conference Total of the Year or my NFL Roadkill Winner.
At 4:15 pm, our selection is on the Baltimore Ravens minus the points over Pittsburgh. Earlier this season, in September, we won our Monday Night Game of the Month on Baltimore +6 over Pittsburgh. The Steelers won that game, 23-20, but Baltimore covered the spread. At the time, the Ravens' rookie QB, Joe Flacco, was still pretty green, but his early-season struggles are behind him. After losing 31-3 to Indy in Week 5 (the Ravens had five turnovers in that game), Baltimore and Flacco have been virtually perfect. The Ravens are 7-1 SU and ATS with their only loss on the road to the NY Giants, and Flacco has thrown just three interceptions in those eight games, while the Ravens have lost just three fumbles. In contrast, Baltimore has forced 18 turnovers over this 8-game stretch. Pittsburgh's defense has been just as strong, but the Steelers have been turning the ball over a lot more than Baltimore (11 turnovers their last seven games). Another big difference is in the rushing attacks of the two teams. Baltimore's ground game is operating in high gear, with 1212 yards on 310 carries (3.9 ypr) over its last eight games, while Pitt's running game has been sluggish (674 yards on 202 carries (3.33 ypr) over its last seven games. In this series, the home team has won 11 of the last 12 meetings straight-up, and is 24-14 ATS since 1990. Finally, unrested teams off 3 SU/ATS wins are an awful 54-98 ATS on the road vs. winning foes. With the Steelers in off four straight wins, and three straight covers, we'll fade Mike Tomlin's men here. NFL Roadkill on Baltimore. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. And don't miss my NFL Non-Conference Total of the Year on Sunday.
At 4 pm, our selection is on the Wake Forest Demon Deacons minus the points over Wright State. Wake Forest is 8-0 on the season, and 3-2 ATS, including a perfect 2-0 ATS at home. One of those wins was against NC Wilmington -- a 120-88 blowout -- and we were on Wake Forest in that game. This will be a difficult game for Wright State since it will be without its top scorer, junior guard Vaughn Duggins, as well as two other players (Kyle Pressley and Troy Tabler). Though Wright State likes to control the tempo, that will be tough once the Raiders fall behind, and Wake Forest is one of the nation's leaders in scoring at 85.5 ppg. Moreover, the Demon Deacons are also among the top college teams in rebounding (45 rpg) and defense FG pct (34%). Indeed, according to Ken Pomeroy's Basketball rankings, Wake Forest ranks 3rd in his raw defensive efficiency category behind only Louisville and Ohio State, and 11th in adjusted defensive efficiency. Pomeroy's rankings are important because they assess teams based on 100 possessions, so they take into account pace of play. Thus, teams that play at a faster pace, like Wake Forest, aren't penalized for giving up more points, and teams that play at a slower pace, like Air Force, aren't rewarded. To illustrate just how far Wake Forest has come this season, last year it ranked 66th in raw defensive efficiency. Look for Dino Gaudio's Deacons to hammer Wright State. Lay the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.Comment
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Re: 12-14-08
Larry Ness' Sunday Night Game of the Month-NFL (4 in a row?)
My 15* SNF Game of the Month is on the Dal Cowboys at 8:15 ET. The NFC East title is not up for grabs in this game but there is plenty at stake for the Cowboys in their Week 15 game with the Giants. The 8-5 Cowboys currently hold a tie-breaker advantage on the Falcons for the conference's sixth seed but they face a murderous stretch of opponents over the final three weeks of the regular season. After the Giants, Dallas will host Baltimore (9-4) before heading to Philadelphia to take on the Eagles, who are within a half-game of the Cowboys entering this week. As for the 11-2 Giants, they have already clinched the NFC East but last week's home loss to the Eagles leaves them just one game up on the 10-3 Panthers for the NFC's No. 1 seed (the two teams are set to square off at the Meadowlands on December 21). The Giants routed the Cowboys 35-14 in the Meadowlands back in Week 9 but Dallas played without Romo in that game. Romo returned for the Cowboys in Week 11 and led them to a 14-10 win at Washington. Dallas followed that tough game with easy home wins over the 49ers (35-22) and Seahawks (34-9) but then saw a 13-6 fourth-quarter lead slip away last week at Pittsburgh. Romo had three INTs last week, the last of which was returned for the game-winning TD just 24 seconds after the Steelers had tied the game with a late score. T.O. and Witten supposedly got into a heated argument over the weekend and Jerry Jones seems exasperated with his talented but underachieving team. However, I'm not buying any of it. Brandon Jacobs (1,002 YR / 5.1 YPC / 12 TDs) will miss this game and his absence is HUGE for the NFL's No. 1 rushing team (154.6 YPG / 4.9 YPC). Ward (669 YR / 4.8 YPC) and Bradshaw (319 YR / 5.9 YPC) are so dangerous BECAUSE of Jacobs. Then there is the loss of Plaxico Burress, leaving Eli with solid WRs like Toomer, Smith and Hixon but no real "big-play" guy. Manning has really grown this year (20 TDs / 8 INTS / 90.1 QB rating) but Burress, like Jacobs, is a big loss. Dallas gets great pressure on the QB (45 sacks are tied with Pittsburgh for the most in the NFL) and while the secondary has just six INTs this year, I don't expect Eli to have a big game. Look for Romo to be just fine after last week's 'meltdown' and as far as the T.O. / Witten controversy goes, forget about it. Choice had 88 yards last week in his first start at RB (also had 57 yards on 11 carries on Thanksgiving as well), so if Barber (870 YR / 47 catches) can't go (or is limited), it's no big deal. Dallas is a desperate and dangerous club that WON'T make the same mistakes as last Sunday, here at home. Sunday Night Game of the Month 15* Dal Cowboys.
Good Luck...Larry
Larry Ness' 15* MASSIVE MISMATCH-CBB (28-16 or 63.6% since Nov 20)
My 15* MASSIVE MISMATCH is on Bowling Green at 6:00 ET. Brandon Cotton (a preseason candidate for conference player of the year) was dismissed before last season began at Detroit and things went downhill from there for the Titans. Detroit was an annual contender in the Horizon League but no more, as last year's team finished 7-23, after winning an average of just 13.7 games per year the previous three seasons. Perry Watson was the league's longest-tenured coach but after 15 years, it was time for a change. Ray McCallum, former head coach at Ball State and Houston, takes over this year but he's got his work cut out for him. While five players are averaging 26 minutes or more per game, the lone double-digit scorer is the 6-7 Keeling (12.4-6.6). Staring up front with him are the 6-7 Kennedy (8.3-5.0) and the 6-8 Harrington (3.9-4.3). The starting guards are freshman Foster (8.5) and returning PG Payne (8.0-4.4-3.9). The team's top reserve is 6-5 senior Stephens (7.6). Bowling Green is coming off back-to-back 13 wins seasons and the year before that, won just nine games. However, Louis Orr (former Syracuse star) is optimistic about his team's chances this year (his second season). He's starting a pair of 6-9 players in Polk (5.0-6.6) and Larson (3.7-3.4) plus owns two solid starting guards in Moten (12.4) and Jakubowski (11.1-3.1-4.1). The 6-4 Clements (12.1-4.7-3.4) is the fifth starter plus another 6-4 player, Nate Miller, is leading the team in scoring (12.8) and rebounding (6.8) while coming off the bench. Miller missed the season's first three games and I'm not sure if Orr will be putting in the starting lineup or not. More good news for Orr is the fact that the 6-7 Marschall (7.7-5.9), who missed all of last year with knee and ankle injuries, has looked very good. BG opened the season with a three-game round-robin tourney in Minneapolis (won twice, while losing to host Minnesota) and has played just a SINGLE home game this year (easily beating Wayne St, 80-48). The Falcons are coming off three straight road losses, playing well at Columbus in a 61-57 loss to Ohio State. This home game is the school's only one from that Nov 20 game with Wayne St until Dec 28. Expect the home team to "make it count." And why shouldn't the Flacons win? They beat the Titans last year in Detroit on BracketBuster Saturday by an 81-65 score and this year's Titans have opened 0-5 SU on the road, losing by an average of 14.8 PPG. MASSIVE MISMATCH 15* Bowling Green.
Good Luck...LarryComment
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