12-11-08

[Mr. IWS]

Marc Lawrence's Playbook


Thursday, December 11th
CHICAGO over New Orleans by 1

On the surface, a cold and blustery December night in Chicago does not
fi gure to serve the climate-controlled Saints well. That is, however, until our database kicks into the equation. The Bears looked to have the road paved to the playoffs by the schedule maker when he awarded them a pair of three-game homestands this season. Little did he realize that home teams in the 2nd of a 3-game regular season home stand struggle when playing off a SU and ATS win and hosting a .500 or greater foe seeking revenge (Chicago has beaten New Orleans three straight times, including a seasonender that cost them a .500 record last year and a playoff loss here in 2006). That’s because these weighty hosts are just 1-7 SU and 0-8 ATS in this role since 1980. And we’ll bet you didn’t know that NO team in the league has fared better than the Saints in the stat-wars this season where they are 10-2-1 ITS (In The Stats). Now there’s a bar bet you’ll win, hands down. Dome be damned… we’re feeling mighty saintly here tonight.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-11-08

IC

Tuesday's Comp Selection (6-4 Comp Run)

#509. Wisconsin-Milwaukee +14.5 (Thursday @ 7pm est).

There are no previous meetings between the two teams. Note, that the public is split in this game. Wisconsin-Milwaukee has clearly showed they have the potential to play sound basketball. After all, they did beat Wright State and Detroit in back to back games. Furthermore, it is not as if Wisconsin Milwaukee is intimidated by the bigger/better schools in the nation as this team played Wisconsin and Marquette earlier this year and lost by about 20 points each time. Both of those games were on the road. Miami of Ohio is obviously talented because they have beaten the likes of Temple on the road outright and even covered against Xavier. But, I still have Miami of Ohio ranked about 55 spots in my power rankings as compared to Wisconsin Milwaukee as I have Wisky losing by 9 here so this is significant enough for me to give it out as a comp selection. Obviously, Wisky is not intimidated as they have played tougher teams on the road such as top 25 Marquette and Wisconsin and despite Miami of Ohio being a great team and likely NCAA Tourney team, I like Wisky to lose by single-digits here. The Idaho State Bengals are 4-1 ATS when facing teams with a winning % above 60% meaning they are showing up against the better teams in the league.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-11-08

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[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-11-08

Steve Budin

25 Dime Play

Chicago Bears

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-11-08

Balfe

NFL Football
Bears -3 over Saints
Both teams are fighting for their playoff lives with the loser being out and the winner needing a ton of help to get in. The Saints have a high powered offense, but their defense stinks and their FG kicker is not used to kicking in the bitter cold. The Saints will be without their LT Brown which could really have Brees scrambling around all night. The Bears have such a good defense that 7pts turn into a lot of FG's and with a young kicker in these conditions it could really deflate the Saints if they go on a nice drive and come away with nothing. The Bears offense is improving and should have their way with this Saints defense. Look for the home team to come out on top with their support of their fans and mother natures cold. Take the Bears.

College Football
Check back at the start of the bowl season

NBA Basketball
Jazz -3 over Trailblazers

NCAA Basketball
Villanova -9.5 over St. Joes

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-11-08

RAS #518 Weber St. +1

1 Unit

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-11-08

LVTR
new orleans +3

new orleans/ chicago over 45

kansas state -5

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-11-08

Andre Gomes | NFL Side
dime bet302 CHI -3.0 (+100) Betjamaica.com vs 301 NOS
Analysis: This is clearly a pivotal game for both teams, as both have a 7-6 record right now and a loss in here will likely end all chances of a postseason appearance. The Bears are listed as a 3 points favorite for this game and in first analysis, the first thing that comes to everybody's mind is how the 28th best pass defense of the league can stop Drew Brees? This fact will be the X factor of this game, but I won't take that "fact" for granted. It's important to say that Brees is a much better Quarterback at home, as on the road the history is different. In fact the Saints are 0-5 SU as away dogs this season and their lonely win on the road was against the 2-11 Kansas City Chiefs.

Brees has a 117.2 passing rating at home, with 19 TD and only 4 INT, but on the road the numbers are much worse: 76.7 passing rating and 7 TD for 10 INT. In his last game against Atlanta, he had 18/32 for 230 yds, 2 TD and no interceptions. I stated one curious fact this season: when Brees didn't threw a pick in a game, in the following game, he couldn't repeat that performance. In fact, he had 7 TD and 8 Interceptions on those conditions and 3 of these 4 games were on the road. Playing at Chicago in this time of the year isn't the best scenario for a good passing team; The Saints can expect temperatures in the mid 20's, 10-to-15-mph winds and a wind-chill in single digits. We already watched Brees performing with a bad weather and the performance wasn't great, as he showed that at Tampa Bay a couple of weeks ago.

The Bears are the 6th best run defense with 91.2 yds/game allowed and that's unlikely that the Saints will be capable to repeat the 184 rushing yards they had against Atlanta last week. Note that the Falcons wanted the Saints to run the football, in order to decrease the damage that Brees could make with his passes. In fact, the Saints rushed the football 30 times, while Brees just had 32 passing attempts during the game.

The pass defense is the weakest part of the Bears' defense, but note that they are much better than the passing stats show at first sight. Even though they are just the 28th best pass defense with 234.2 passing yards per game, the truth is that no other team on the league sees their opponent throwing the football so many times like the Bears. Their opponents have thrown the football 504 times against them this season, which is clearly the most of the league this season. So, naturally with so many attempts, it's normal that the stats show the Bears allowing a lot of passing yards per game. But if we study the number of passing yards allowed per attempt, we see that the Bears are actually the 9th best passing defense of the league, with just 6.46 Y/A allowed! Also I have to mention that the Bears are the second team of the league with most interceptions made this season: 19!

Chicago's QB Kyle Orton finally played a decent game last week and for the first time since he got injured, he had more than 200 passing yards on a game. This fact should have provided the confidence he was really needing. Also the Bears' RB Matt Forte had a subpar performance last week against the Jags and I expect him to bounce back this week. The Bears have already ended the Saints' postseason aspirations last season and this could be a revenge game for them, however they are coming to Chicago in a bad time. I also remember that the Bears are 6-0 ATS in home games against good passing teams with a completion of 61% or better in the second half of the season in the last 3 seasons. With all these factors, I expect a good win for the Bears tonight. Take Chicago in here.



Andre Gomes | NBA Total
dime bet506 UTA / 505 POR Under 195.5 Betjamaica.com
Analysis:
We have a great game to watch tonight on TNT with Utah receiving Portland. The Blazers lost for the first time at the home against Orlando so they aren't in a good mood for tonight's game, they allowed Orlando to score 109 points with 50-6 % FG and a whopping 14-27 3 points shots, we are talking about the 6th best defense with only 94.0 ppg allowed so we can say that the Blazers didn't gave their best effort on the defensive end, but is it's important to refer that they played the first game after their road trip so it was somehow expected that kind of slopping defense.

Meanwhile the Jazz are alternating some good wins with frustrating losses, the most obvious reason for that is their injuries especially with Boozer, their offense is not floating and in fact they only reached triple digits points in 2 of their last 6 games, the highest outcome was 114 points against the Raptors but was against a team who lacks toughness inside the paint, remember that they outrebounded the Raptors 52-38 and scored 66 points in the paint, this won't happen tonight as the Blazers are the 2nd best rebounding margin team in the league with +5.39 reb/game and even Dwight Howard struggled last game making only 5-11 FG and grabbed only 7 rebounds.

This will be a physical game and we won't see any easy shots as both teams protects their paint in a very efficient way, the Blazers struggled lately to defend the perimeter but the Jazz lately are awfully behind the arc: just 20-61 3pts in last 4 games: 32.7 %!

The Jazz already won against the Blazers this season 103-96 in a game that Boozer and Deron Williams didn't played and still they were able to shot 52.7 % FG, I expect a much better Blazers' defense today, remember that they are 20-8 Under revenging a same season loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons and 16-6 Under after scoring 105 points or more over the last 2 seasons. Coming to this I expect an ugly and extremely physically game and in this scenario a low scoring game is the most probable to happen, take the under in here.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-11-08

NSA

20* Chicago -3

10* N Orleans/Chicago Over 44.5

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-11-08

ATS Lock CLub
3 Saints +3
4 Celtics -9.5
3 Miami Ohio -13.5

ATS Financial Package
3 Under 45.5 Saints/Bears
4 Over 194 Blazers/Jazz
3 Kansas State -6

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-11-08

KBHOOPS

NBA
5* Boston Celtics -9.5 -120 **POD**

NCAAB
5* Villanova -10.5
5* Kansas State -6

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-11-08

Jeff Benton

Thursday's winners ...
15 Dime: BEARS (minus the points vs. Saints)



5 Dime: WIZARDS (plus the points vs. Celtics)



Bears



I don’t quite get the short line the oddsmakers have hung on this game. The Saints have won just once in six tries on the road this season, and that was a 30-20 victory at crappy Kansas City a month ago when the Saints outgained the Chiefs by a “whopping” 10 yards. True, New Orleans was competitive in three other road losses – 29-24 at Washington in Week 2; 34-32 at Denver in Week 3; and 23-20 at Tampa Bay two weeks ago. However, those three games – heck, all six of New Orleans’ roadies this year – were played in optimal weather conditions.



Tonight, the Saints take their precision passing attack to Soldier Field, and even though there’s no snow in the forecast, game-time temperatures will be below freezing. And with the unpredictable winds in Chicago, it’s pretty safe to assume that wind will be some kind of factor tonight, which really impacts the pass-happy Saints and works in favor of the run-first Bears.



Also, consider how winter trips to Chicago have turned out for the Saints the last two years. Back in January 2007, the Saints invaded Soldier Field for the NFC Championship Game … and lost 39-14 as a 2½-point underdog, in large part because they lost the turnover battle 4-0. Then 11 months later, New Orleans returned to Chicago for a Week 17 meeting with the Bears … and lost 33-25 as a one-point favorite, with QB Drew Brees going 35-for-60 for 308 yards, but two interceptions (New Orleans also lost a fumble). I’m not the greatest at math, but that’s seven turnovers in two cold subfreezing games at Soldier Field – hence the reason the Bears put up 72 points despite just 615 yards of total offense.



Meanwhile, the Bears have been a pretty decent home team this year, winning four of six games. One loss was to then-unbeaten Tennessee 21-14 as a three-point home ‘dog, and the other was a fluky 27-24 overtime loss to Tampa Bay in Week 3 when Chicago blew a 10 point lead with 6½ minutes to play. And while this might look like a favorable matchup for New Orleans offensively – the Bears’ defense ranks 28th in the league in pass defense, while Brees and the Saints are first in pass offense – it’s interesting to note that Brees’ TD-to-INT ratio is 19-4 in the Superdome, but 7-10 on the road. And to reiterate, none of those 10 INTs on the road came in this kind of frigid weather.



When the Bears have the ball, look for them to do a lot of handing off to rookie RB Matt Forte (1,081 rushing yards), who should have success against the Saints’ defense that’s giving up 130.5 rushing yards per game on the road (4.2 per carry), not to mention 28.3 points per game on the road. And when Brees has the ball, you can expect a lot zone coverage from Chicago, who really have no reason to fear the run for two reasons: 1) the Saints’ ground game is weak outside the dome (85 rushing ypg on the road); and 2) teams haven’t run on the Bears at home this year (82.8 ypg, 3.2 yards per carry).



In the end, you’ve got two teams fighting for their playoff lives, but given the results the last two years when these teams have met at Soldier Field and given the Saints’ road woes all season long, it’s impossible to pass up Chicago at this cheap price … just as it was impossible to pass up the Panthers as a small home chalk against Tampa Bay on Monday night.



‘Da Bears are the play.





Wizards



Simply put, where’s the motivation? Where’s the motivation for the Boston Celtics to blowout Washington tonight? Yeah, the defending champs have won 12 straight games and 20 of their first 22 to start the season, and hell, they’re even 8-3 ATS in their last 11. However, in their last two road games, the C’s went to Charlotte and barely held off the putrid Bobcats 89-84 (as an 8½-point road favorite), and then at Indiana in their most recent game Sunday, they needed overtime to dispatch of the Pacers 122-117.



Now they travel down the eastern seaboard to D.C. to face the Wizards, who are coming off their biggest win of the season (a 107-94 rout of the Pistons as a five-point home favorite). In fact, Washington is 5-0 ATS in its last five games, all as an underdog (3-0 ATS at home), including a 20-point rout of New Jersey, a six-point loss to the Blazers (as a 6 ½-point home underdog), a two-point home loss to the mighty Lakers (as a 12-point pup) and a seven-point loss at Chicago (as a seven-point underdog). In fact, the Wizards haven’t lost a game by double digits in six straight outings going back to before Thanksgiving!

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-11-08

adam meyer

4* bears -3
2* canadiens --1.5
4*celtics -10.5
3* weber st +1
4* t-blazers over 194

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-11-08

LENNY STEVENS

10* villanova

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-11-08

DOC

3* celtics OVER 197

3* new orleans +3