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Here you go...
Let's say you have a team down like 20 at the half... What's the play...?
TAKE THE LEADING TEAM AND THE UNDER AND, please, get a small play the PARLAY, also!
Note that I didn't mention numbers, because they simply don't come into play - there'll be a close one every once in a while, but this angle always seems to fit. That is to say, the action from people chasing their perceived-losing bets seems to drive the line to a number that always still fits.
I'm not exactly sure where the cut-off is, and as always, you do have to look at the overall match-up.
For example, a good team at home up maybe 10 or 11 on a weak opponent might be 60/40 or better. Bump that number up a little more - you're talking gold. At some point, the trailing team will start missing desparate threes as all of the starters head to the bench to get ready for tomorrow and the leading team just tries to play tight-D...milk the clock...dribble...pass... What else is there to do...???
...So inevitable...
On the road, with an even-ish match-up, the number is probably around 16. Tonight, the SA Spurs were up 20 (61-41) in Denver at the half - line at tip-off was DEN -4 O/U 195; halftime line was Spurs +6 O/U 101... 2nd half Spurs covered by 3 and under covered by 4 - a close call, but not really.
Last night, NYN at CLE: Knicks down 35-61 at the half - Tip-off line was CLE -15.5, O/U 214; halftime line was CLE -1.5 O/U 107.5 - Cav's covered by 8.5 and under by 3.5, again, seemingly close to going over...again, not really that close...
Also last night, the Lakers were up 10 in Philly - guess what - that didn't quite fit - again, it seems like the number is a little higher on the road....16, maybe 18, depending on overall match-up.
Note also that if there is no tomorrow - ie, during or fighting for the playoffs - this angle won't fit.
I'm going to try to dial the numbers in tighter on this and report back, but I couldn't wait to share this...
Please let me know what you think - I'm pretty sure I'm onto something here...
Let's say you have a team down like 20 at the half... What's the play...?
TAKE THE LEADING TEAM AND THE UNDER AND, please, get a small play the PARLAY, also!
Note that I didn't mention numbers, because they simply don't come into play - there'll be a close one every once in a while, but this angle always seems to fit. That is to say, the action from people chasing their perceived-losing bets seems to drive the line to a number that always still fits.
I'm not exactly sure where the cut-off is, and as always, you do have to look at the overall match-up.
For example, a good team at home up maybe 10 or 11 on a weak opponent might be 60/40 or better. Bump that number up a little more - you're talking gold. At some point, the trailing team will start missing desparate threes as all of the starters head to the bench to get ready for tomorrow and the leading team just tries to play tight-D...milk the clock...dribble...pass... What else is there to do...???
...So inevitable...
On the road, with an even-ish match-up, the number is probably around 16. Tonight, the SA Spurs were up 20 (61-41) in Denver at the half - line at tip-off was DEN -4 O/U 195; halftime line was Spurs +6 O/U 101... 2nd half Spurs covered by 3 and under covered by 4 - a close call, but not really.
Last night, NYN at CLE: Knicks down 35-61 at the half - Tip-off line was CLE -15.5, O/U 214; halftime line was CLE -1.5 O/U 107.5 - Cav's covered by 8.5 and under by 3.5, again, seemingly close to going over...again, not really that close...
Also last night, the Lakers were up 10 in Philly - guess what - that didn't quite fit - again, it seems like the number is a little higher on the road....16, maybe 18, depending on overall match-up.
Note also that if there is no tomorrow - ie, during or fighting for the playoffs - this angle won't fit.
I'm going to try to dial the numbers in tighter on this and report back, but I couldn't wait to share this...
Please let me know what you think - I'm pretty sure I'm onto something here...
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