11-30-08

[Guest]

Wunderdog

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Game: Atlanta at San Diego (Sunday 11/30 4:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: Game Total UNDER 49 -110


The Chargers are still thought of and hearalded as a great offensive team. Their is a solid QB, big name running back and tight end, and a cast of recievers that rank right up their as one of the NFL's best. It just isn't translating on the field. The Chargers have been held to 20 points or less in five of their last seven games, averaging just 19.4 ppg in the most recent seven. Suddenly, this team has become defensive. They have held five of the last eight opponents to under 20 points a game. Atlanta has had a lot of success pounding the ball this season. Michael Turner has rushed for over 1,000 yards already and he is complimented by Jarius Norwood who has contributed almost 400 more. While the Falcons have been highly explosive at home where they have averaged 32.2 ppg, their offense on the road has been more like a cap gun, averaging just 16.6 ppg. On the surface, this game looks like one that could light up the scoreboard. But the statistical reality is, those are false signs and this number is attractively inflated.

[Guest]

Re: 11-30-08

Bob Balfe's Sunday NFL Comp Play 19-8 YTD!
Rams +9 over Dolphins
First off the Dolphins should not be a 9pt favorite to anybody in this league especially when they just let Matt Cassel of the Patriots throw for 400+ yards on them. The Rams cornerbacks matchup well against the smaller Dolphins receivers and on turf Miami might not be able to catch up with the pace of the game as they are not used to playing on it. St.Louis matches up well on offense and should put up some points. If you are feeling up to it this is a moneyline play which would be about a 3/1 hit. Take the Rams.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-30-08

Spylock

3 Atlanta
3 Pittsburgh
1 Baltimore
1 Giants
1 Jets

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-30-08

Las Vegas Sport Picks

NHL:

1* Rangers -1.5 +130

NBA:

2* Pistons -3

NFL:

2* Tampa Bay Bucs -4
2* Steelers +1
2* Chiefs/Raiders over 41
2* Broncos/Jets over 47
3* Packers -3
3* Steelers/Patriots over 39

More to come later!!

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-30-08

igz1 sports

NFL Sunday !! Totals Play of the Year Today !!
Saturday Recap: 2-1 CBB (+72) pts : 3-2 CFB (+52) : 1-1 NBA (+2) pts : 1-1 NHL (-16) pts
3-1 in GOY in NFL and CFB this year ! I have 3 in each sport .

NFL
5* Over 42.5 (-110) San Francisco vs Buffalo (Totals GOY !)
4* N.Y. Giants -3.5 (-110)
4* Over 41 (-110) Chicago vs Minnesota
3* Denver +9 (-110)
3* Pittsburgh +1 (-110)
3* Over 44.5 (-110) Indianapolis vs Cleveland
3* Over 41.5 (-110) Carolina vs Green Bay

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-30-08

King Creole Sports:

4:15pm ET / KANSAS CITY CHIEFS @ OAKLAND RAIDERS

2** Play on: OVER THE TOTAL

The pathetic scoring defense of the Chiefs just gave up 54 whopping points to the Bills last week. They have now allowed 32.8 PPG in their last 7 games. That works for me, especially since their offensive scoring is ALSO up with the new spread offense (24 PPG L4 compared to 16.2 in first 4 games). That 54-31 home loss from Sunday is where we start.

9-1 O/U last 5 years for all NFL teams off a SU dog loss in which they allowed 50 or more points.

The Chiefs are probably happy to get away from Arrowhead Stadium, where they just dropped 2 games by large margins (54-31 loss to Buffalo and 30-20 loss to New Orleans).

Since 1981, NFL underdogs of 6 < points are 8-2 O/U off BB DOUBLE-DIGIT home losses vs an opp off a SU win. These teams are a PERFECT 4-0 O/U in the last 10 years.

On the flip side, the Oakland Raiders come in off a SU win in the most unlikely of places (Mile High Stadium), as the beat Denver 31-10 as BIG dogs of +9 points. They are historically a high-scoring team after returning from the Rocky Mountains (15-2 O/U after a road game IN Denver).

They also qualify in multiple hot "HIGH"-scoring Systems that pertain to last week's winning margin and the multiple ATS wins that Oakland has:

8-1 O/U L3Y for all GAME 9 > home favs of -9 < pts playing off a big road win of 20 or more points..... and 7-1 O/U L3Y for all home favs of -5 < pts off BB ATS road wins... with the last an outright SU win.

In these AFC WEST division games, we note that home favs of -3 < pts are 5-0 O/U off a SU win (OAK) vs any opp off a DD SU loss (KC).

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-30-08

RON RAYMOND'S 5* NFL GAME OF THE WEEK
Pick # 1
Washington Redskins (3.5)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-30-08

H$W Early Phones NFL Three Team Parlay
7* TAMPABAY
BUFFALO
CINCY UNDER

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-30-08

Indian Cowboy

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IC = Tampa Bay -3.5 (POD

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-30-08

Kelso Sturgeon - Newsletter

NFL BEST BETS


5 Units - SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (-5) by 14 over Atlanta Falcons - Some things are simply not meant to be - and one of those things must be the San Diego Chargers (4-7) in 2008. This was a team that was one of the co-favorites to win the Super Bowl but has instead turned into one of the most snake-bitten teams in recent memory. Last week, the Chargers lost to Indianapolis 23-20 on a last-second field goal. The week before, it was an 11-10 loss at Pittsburgh. The seven Charger losses this season have come by a total of 28 points, or an average of 4.0 points per game. Still, San Diego comes to play and one can expect the Chargers to fire up again for this one against the surprising Atlanta Falcons (7-4). There is no question San Diego has the more talented team and my figures say they will at last get "lucky" against the Falcons, who are led by a rookie quarterback and that is always a hazard on the road.


4 Units - NEW YORK JETS (-7½) by 13 over Denver Broncos - Some magic things are happening for the New York Jets (8-3) since they acquired veteran quarterback Brett Favre, who set a world of records at Green Bay. New York comes into this game after handing the Tennessee Titans their first loss of the season, 34-13, and just in case one thinks that road victory was a fluke, please note it was New York's fifth straight win and its seventh in its last eight games. The Jets have become a very good football team under the ability and leadership of Favre and they seem to have almost all the edges in this home game against the Denver Broncos (6-5), the most over-rated team in the NFL. If Denver could not muster any offense or defense in last week's 31-10 home loss to the hapless Oakland Raiders, why should one think they can do much against a dramatically better New York team? My money says they can't and won't as the Jets win their sixth in a row and their eight in their last nine games.


3 Units - BUFFALO BILLS (-7) by 13 over San Francisco 49ers - Just call this a best bet play made on the basis of that old tried-and-true West Coast to East Coast rule. For the record, 11 times this season teams from the Pacific time zone have flown east to compete in the Eastern time zone and 11 times they have met defeat. That's 0-11, my friend, and there is no reason to expect any different outcome here. San Francisco (3-8) even has the added disadvantage of traveling cross country for the second straight weekend. Last week they were in Dallas and lost 35-22. Now they face the double whammy of going all the way and history says it will cost them the game. Buffalo (6-5) turned it all loose against a bad Kansas City team and won 54-31. If the Bills can play anywhere remotely as well as that this week, they should own the 49ers - much improved but
simply in a bad spot.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-30-08

DOC
3 Unit Play. #97 Take Denver Broncos +7 ½ over New York Jets (Sunday 1:00 pm CBS)
4 Unit Play. #108 Take New England Patriots -1 over Pittsburgh Steelers (Sunday 4:15 pm CBS)
3 Unit Play. #114 Take Over 48 in Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texas (Monday 8:30 pm ESPN)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-30-08

JEFF BENTONS Sunday plays

25 DIME PITTSBURGH

10 DIME GREEN BAY

10 DIME REDSKINS

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-30-08

Nick Parsons
Event Date: 11/30/2008 4:15:00 PM EST
Sport: NFL
Pick Selection: DEN @ nyj- NFL GOY

: NFL Game #389 – Denver Broncos (+) @ NY Jets @ 4:15 PM ET on Sunday, November 30th – The Broncos should prove to be a very dangerous dog in this spot. They’re catching the Jets right after New York just handed the Tennessee Titans their very first loss of the season. Not only that, Denver is catching the Jets back home in New York. While this may seem like a good thing for the Jets, what it really means is simply extra line value for backers of the Broncos here. We get an opportunity to take a talented road dog getting a handful of points against a home team that will get caught still celebrating last week’s big win. The Broncos just lost at home to the Raiders in ugly fashion. Because of this, no one will want Denver here and that is one an underdog is often its most dangerous. They will be given very little respect by the Jets, the odds makers, and the bettors and then, come Sunday; they step up their game and make a statement. Yes, the Broncos have struggled defensively this season but they’ve also thrived on offense. The Jets defense is also bound for a letdown after holding the Titans in check last week. Offensively the Jets will just want to “grind out a win” here as they will look to a heavy dose of the ground game and, physically, this team is beat up after last week’s big win over the Titans. Not only did the Jets just face a physical Tennessee team, they had previously defeated the division rival Patriots in overtime in a huge Thursday night win. There simply has to be a letdown here. It happens all the time in the NFL and it’s simply too much for a Jets team to maintain their high level of play when they just knocked off a Patriots team that is now 7-4 on the season and a Titans team that was 10-0 on the season. Yes, the Broncos are 6-5 on the season but the Jets see them as a team that just lost 31 to 10 at home to the Raiders of all teams! However, within that loss, would you believe the Broncos actually outgained Oakland? The fact is that the Raiders benefited greatly from two Denver turnovers as well as a punt return for a touchdown! The Broncos had it handed to them last week when they least expected it. Now don’t be surprised if they turn around and return the favor this week against a team who least expects it. This is the NFL after all and that’s how this stuff often rolls! Grab the points with the Broncos! Good luck from Nick “The BookieKiller” Parsons

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-30-08

Marc Lawrence
Handicapper: Marc Lawrence
Event Date: 11/30/2008 1:00:00 PM EST
Sport: NFL
Pick Selection: Washington Redskins

Play On: Washington Redskins Note: The Redskins host the Giants in a key NFC East Division battle in the nation's capital on Sunday with revenge on their minds from a season opening loss suffered in the Big Apple. This game depends on which pair of glasses you choose to look through. Frontrunners alike see a defending champ out in front of the pack, mowing down anything in their path en route to another ticket to the Super Bowl. Others choose to focus in on a team mired in a battle for a Wild Card spot in the playoffs with revenge against a team with a fat three-game division lead. What we see is a team that plays to the level of competition like clockwork. Under head coach Jim Zorn the Skins are 3-2 SU and 1-3-1 ATS against losing teams and 4-2 SU and ATS against .500 or better opposition. In fact, they’ve gone toe-to-toe against three undefeated teams and have won and covered all three games. Tie that into Tom Coughlin’s dismal 3-9 ATS career mark as a division favorite in games off back-to-back SU and ATS wins, including 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS if his team scored 28 or more points in its previous game, and we'll grab the points with the Skins here today.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-30-08

masterbets
Handicapper: Masterbets
Event Date: 11/30/2008 1:00:00 PM EST
Sport: NFL
Pick Selection: Bet on the BILLS to cover the spread

Buffalo should have an easy time of it in this spot facing a very mediocre 49ers team that has to travel from the West Coast and play an early game. Add to that the expected chilly weather, the fact that the Bills have been solid at home and are coming off a much-needed win last week (a profitable rout over the Chiefs, where we had the Bills), and the spread looks a little too small for the favorites.

Our database predicts a double-digit margin of victory for the BILLS so lay the -6.5 points and savor some home cooking