Dr Bob Free Opinions
BALL ST. (-10.5) 37 Western Mich 23
04:00 PM Pacific Time Tuesday, Nov-25 - Stats Matchup
Western Michigan is a good team by MAC standards, rating at 0.2 yppl better than average on offense and 0.4 yppl worse than average on defense, but Ball State is a good team by any standard. The Cardinals have averaged an impressive 7.2 yppl this season (against teams that would combine to allow 6.0 yppl to an average team) and they rate at 1.0 yppl better than average offensively since losing star receiver Dante Love in week 4 against Indiana. Ball State is 0.1 yppl worse than average defensively, so Western Michigan should score a decent amount of points, but the Ball State has not allowed more than 24 points to any team all season and Ball State should score around their average of 37 points per game.
NORTHERN ILL (-3.0) 26 Navy 24
04:00 PM Pacific Time Tuesday, Nov-25 - Stats Matchup
Navy is turning to sophomore quarterback Ricky Dobbs to run the option attack and he looks like a better option than Jarod Bryant, who wasn’t as good reading defenses as injured starter Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku-Enhada. Dobbs won’t run the attack as well as Kaheaku-Enhada either, but the Midshipmen should move the ball well enough to keep this game competitive against a solid Northern Illinois team that is 0.2 yppl worse than average on offense and average defensively. My math model favors Northern Illinois by 1 1/2 points, so I’ll lean slightly with the Middies plus the points.
BALL ST. (-10.5) 37 Western Mich 23
04:00 PM Pacific Time Tuesday, Nov-25 - Stats Matchup
Western Michigan is a good team by MAC standards, rating at 0.2 yppl better than average on offense and 0.4 yppl worse than average on defense, but Ball State is a good team by any standard. The Cardinals have averaged an impressive 7.2 yppl this season (against teams that would combine to allow 6.0 yppl to an average team) and they rate at 1.0 yppl better than average offensively since losing star receiver Dante Love in week 4 against Indiana. Ball State is 0.1 yppl worse than average defensively, so Western Michigan should score a decent amount of points, but the Ball State has not allowed more than 24 points to any team all season and Ball State should score around their average of 37 points per game.
NORTHERN ILL (-3.0) 26 Navy 24
04:00 PM Pacific Time Tuesday, Nov-25 - Stats Matchup
Navy is turning to sophomore quarterback Ricky Dobbs to run the option attack and he looks like a better option than Jarod Bryant, who wasn’t as good reading defenses as injured starter Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku-Enhada. Dobbs won’t run the attack as well as Kaheaku-Enhada either, but the Midshipmen should move the ball well enough to keep this game competitive against a solid Northern Illinois team that is 0.2 yppl worse than average on offense and average defensively. My math model favors Northern Illinois by 1 1/2 points, so I’ll lean slightly with the Middies plus the points.
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